研究报告全文：SWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorldLeisureCompanyResearch11January2023CoreresortsreboundwithpromisingprofitabilityBUYFosunTourismGroup1992HKMaintainMarketData10January2023CoreresortsbecamepopularduringNewYearsVacationDrivenbyrisingdemandforClosingpriceHK1192short-distancetoursaroundBeijingandShanghaiClubMedAnjiResortandBeidaiheGoldHSCEI726363CoastResortpostednearly-fulloccupancyduringtheNewYearsDayholidaysof202352-weekhighLowHKD1468611AtlantisSanyawasthepreferredvacationmeccaformanytouristswithturnoveralreadyMarketCapHKbn148exceedingthatofNewYearsDayof2022and2019Itreceivedatotalof37000touristsandSharesoutstandingm1241recordedanaverageoccupancyrateof974withanaveragedailyroompriceofRmb2736ExchangeRateRmb-HKD115ofwhichthegrowthrateofnon-roomrevenuefromcateringwaterworldaquariumetcexceededtheroomrevenueLijiangFolidayTownNewYearsDayrevenueincreasedby27PricePerformanceChartYoYwithanaveragedailyroomrateofRmb1027HighcertaintyofprofitabilityimprovementforAtlantisSanyaTheAtlantisresorthosts1314roomswithfulloceanviewoneofthelargestnaturalseawateraquariumsinChinaa200000sqmwaterworldhigh-qualityfoodandbeverageservicesandmorethan5000sqmofshoppingcentresWethusseestrongpriceelasticityaftertheepidemicAtlantisrecordedanadjustedEBITDAmarginof495in2020and492in1H21Itstouristnumberdeclinedto15mpostingrevenueofRmb487m-417YoYandadjustedEBITDAofRmb0207bn-SourceBloomberg497YoYin1H22duetothepandemicresurgenceinmanyprovincesWeexpectthenegativeimpactofthepandemictotodiminishwiththepeakingofCovidcasesinmostAnalystcitiesWethusseehighvisibilityinprofitabilityimprovementgiventhehigh-qualityassetsofZhaoLingyiAtlantishotelandwaterworldA0230518100003ContinuedrecoveryofClubMedandoverseasresortsIn1H22ClubMedachievedazhaoly2swsresearchcomturnoverofRmb574bn336YoYandrecoveredto902ofthe1H19levelTheperformanceofvariousregionsdivergedwiththeturnoverintheAmericasup222YoYContactwhilethatintheEuropeAfricaandtheMiddleEastregionsdown141YoYIntheAsia-YangGuangPacificregionmostcountriesclosetheirbordersuntilearlyJunesotheturnoverdroppedA0230122100004733YoYin1H19Withtheresumptionofcross-bordertravelthetouristvolumeinpopularyangguangswsresearchcominternationaltouristdestinationshasreboundedWethusexpectoverseasresortstorecoversteadilyClubMedsprojectsinChinawillseeagreaterflexibilityin2023givenalowbaseOnthebackofthematurebusinessmodelofJoyviewthecompanyacceleratedexpansionaroundmajorcitiesandisexploringathree-gradientqualityvacationproductsystemforlong-distancesuburbanandintra-citytoursMaintainBUYGiventhesevereCovid-19situationsin4Q22theoveralltourismmarketperformance4Q22waslowerthanexpectedwelowerournetprofitforecastsfrom-Rmb349mto-Rmb634min22EfromRmb530mtoRmb401min23EandfromRmb824mtoRmb757min24EWeexpectadjustedEBITDAtoreachRmb226bnin22ERmb346bnin23EandRmb393bnin24EWederiveourtargetpriceofHK1750basedon11x23EEVEBITDAwithabout47roomforgrowthandmaintainourBUYratingRiskWeaker-than-expecteddemandrecoverylower-than-expectednewprojectssalesFinancialsummaryandvaluation202020212022E2023E2024ERevenueRmbm70609261134301859621045GrowthYoY-5931453813AdjustedNetprofitRmbm-2574-2712-634401757GrowthYoY----89AdjustedEPSRmb-207-218-051032061ROE-474-906-269145215PEx-203217NoteNetincomeiscalculatedasNon-GAAPnetprofitEPSiscalculatedasNon-GAAPdilutedearningsperADSJanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearch元旦期间表现亮眼关注23年盈利优化元旦期间中国区业务开门红热门旅游景区客房爆满北京上海周边游推动ClubMed安吉度假村及北戴河黄金海岸度假村于2023年元旦期间接近满房2023年元旦期间三亚亚特兰蒂斯成为众多游客出游首选度假圣地营业额已不同程度超过2022年元旦假期及疫情前的2019年元旦假期总接待人次达37万平均入住率达974平均每日房价为2736元其中来自餐饮水世界水族馆等的非房费收入增速已超过房费收入丽江复游城23年元旦假期营业额同比增长27平均每日床位价格为人民币1027元23年亚特兰蒂斯有望业绩反弹盈利能力优化确定性较高三亚亚特兰蒂斯度假区包括1314间全海景客房中国最大的天然海水水族馆之一总面积约20万平方米的水世界高品质的餐饮服务超过5000平米的购物中心疫情好转后具有极强的价格弹性20全年21H1亚特兰蒂斯经调整EBITDA利润率分别达4954921H22受疫情多点散发到访游客150万人次实现营业额487亿元同比-417经调整EBITDA为207亿元同比-497我们预计随着各大城市逐渐达峰疫情对旅游业的负面影响逐步退出历史舞台亚特兰蒂斯客房水世界等优质度假资源业绩反弹弹性确定性均较高ClubMed中国区项目23年反弹趋势明显海外度假区预计持续修复1H22ClubMed实现营业额5743亿元与1H21相比336恢复至19年同期902各地区表现不均衡美洲欧非中东营业额同比19H1分别222-141亚太地区由于多数国家关闭边境至6月初营业额同比19H1减少733随着出入境政策放开跨境旅行回暖国际热门旅游地客人流量回升预计海外度假村将持续修复中国区项目23年低基数下弹性较大公司Joyview模式已经趋于成熟加速ClubMedJoyview在城市周边拓展并积极探索城市度假酒店产品打造长途近郊和城市三梯度品质度假产品体系维持买入评级考虑到Q4疫情多点散发且核心城市12月份仍在疫情逐渐达峰阶段22年四季度整体旅游市场表现低于预期我们下调盈利预测预计22-24年归母净利润为-634401757亿元前值-349530824亿元预测22-24年经调整EBITDA为222634563927亿元给予公司23年11倍EVEBITDA对应目标价1750港元当前股价有47上涨空间维持买入评级风险提示疫情持续性影响致需求恢复不及预期新项目销售情况不及预期等Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers1JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchCompanyfinancialsConsolidatedincomestatementRmbbn202020212022E2023E2024ERevenue706926134318602105CostofSales-490-669-962-1303-1462GrossProfit216257381556643SalesExpenses-137-145-201-279-316OtherIncomeandRevenueExpensesNetTotalValue-136-095014025030ManagementExpenses-111-159-175-186-210OperatingProfit-168-144019117147FinancialExpenses-090-096-083-077-071ProfitbeforeTaxation-259-240-063040076IncomeTax-022-038000000000NetProfitIncludingMinorityInterests-281-278-063040076NetProfitExcludingMinorityInterests-257-271-063040076SourceCompanyfilingsSWSResearchConsolidatedcashflowstatementRmbbn202020212022E2023E2024EProfitLossbeforeTaxation-259-240-063040076DepreciationofPropertyPlantEquipment075068070072073InterestIncome000000000000000InterestExpense090096083077071CashFlowbeforeChanginginWorkingCapital181146212326368IncreaseDecreaseinInventory-001-004002-007-003IncreaseDecreaseinAccountReceivables017-037-005-023-011IncreaseDecreaseinAccountPayables-019083-075057026IncreaseDecreaseinOtherLong-termPayables-004028-022022009OperatingCashFlow-185262192440353PaidIncomeTax-022-038000000000Netcashflowfromoperatingactivities-207224192440353Purchaseofpropertyplantandequipment000-044-099-102-094Purchaseofintangibleassets000015-012-012-012Interestreceived-investmentactivities001001000000000Netcashflowsfrominvestmentactivities-097-093-110-113-105Incomefrombankandotherloans678009-226-080000Paymentofleaseprincipal-109-218000000000Paymentofleaseliabilities-financingactivities060048000000000Netcashflowsfromfinancingactivities532-199-237-091-011Netincreaseincashandcashequivalents228-068-156236237Openingcashandcashequivalentsbalance213625454298534Impactofexchangeratemovementsoncash001001000000000ClosingcashandCashequivalentsbalance441557298534771SourceCompanyfilingsSWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers2JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchConsolidatedbalancesheetRmbbn202020212022E2023E2024ETotalAssets38693728341937353987TotalNon-currentAssets28092733260825522491FixedAssets-PropertyPlantEquipment99196899710271047IntangibleAssets284257257257257Goodwill185167167167167DeferredTaxAssetsNon-currentAssets011017017017017TotalCurrentAssets106099681211821496Inventories020021019026029PropertyAvailableforSale031102010001001AccountReceivable048056061085096RestrictedCash000000000000000CashandCashEquivalent457454298534771TotalCurrentLiabilities10371327121215661733BankLoans219218100120120ContractLiabilities062103103103103AccountPayables152235160217244LeaseliabilitiesCurrentLiabilities092077077077077TotalNon-currentLiabilities22882102197118931902Long-termLoans111511081000900900LeaseliabilitiesNon-currentLiabilities884864864864864OtherAccountPayables040073051072081TotalShareholdersEquityIncludingMinorityInterests543299236276352SourceCompanyfilingsSWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers3JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchInformationDisclosureUndertakingsoftheAnalystIWeamareconferredtheProfessionalQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustrybytheSecuritiesAssociationofChinaandhaveregisteredastheSecuritiesAnalystIherebyissuethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligenceprofessionalandprudentresearchmethodsandonlylegitimateinformationisusedinthisreportIamalsoresponsibleforthecontentandopinionsofthisreportIhaveneverbeenamnotandwillnotbecompensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecificrecommendationsoropinionshereinDisclosurewithrespecttotheCompanyThecompanyisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritiesThecompanyisaqualifiedsecuritiesinvestmentconsultinginstituteapprovedbyChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionTheaffiliatesoftheCompanymayholdortradetheinvestmenttargetsmentionedinthisreportinaccordancewiththelawandmayalsoprovideorseektoprovideinvestmentbankingservicesforthesetargetsTheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithinitssphereofknowledgeTheclientsmaycontactcomplianceswsresearchcomfortherelevantdisclosurematerialsorlogintowwwswsresearchcomfortheanalystsqualificationsthearrangementofthequietperiodandtheaffiliatesshareholdingsIntroductionofShareInvestmentRatingSecurityInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupofthesecurityandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthisreportwedefinethetermsasfollowsBUYSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20upsideOutperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20upsideHoldSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10downsideto10upsideUnderperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20downsideSELLSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20downsideIndustryInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupoftheindustryindexandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthereportwedefinethetermsasfollowsOverweightIndustryperformsbetterthanthatofthewholemarketNeutralIndustryperformsaboutthesameasthatofthewholemarketUnderweightIndustryperformsworsethanthatofthewholemarketWewouldliketoremindyouthatdifferentsecurityresearchinstitutionsadoptdifferentratingterminologiesandratingstandardsWeadopttherelativeratingmethodtorecommendtherelativeweightingsofinvestmentTheclientsdecisionstobuyorsellsecuritiesshallbebasedontheiractualsituationsuchastheirportfoliostructuresandothernecessaryfactorsTheclientsshallreadthroughthewholereportsoastoobtainthecompleteopinionsandinformationandshallnotrelysolelyontheinvestmentratingstoreachaconclusionTheCompanyemploysitsownindustryclassificationsystemTheindustryclassificationisavailableatoursalespersonnelifyouareinterestedHSCEIisthebenchmarkemployedinthisreportDisclaimerThisreportispublishedbySWSResearchCoLtdsubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritieshereinafterreferredtoastheCompanyinmainlandChinaexcludingHongKongMacaoandTaiwanandtobeusedsolelybytheclientsoftheCompanyincludingQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestorsandotherqualifiedclientsinaccordancewiththelawTheCompanywillnotdeemanyotherpersonasitsclientnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisreportTheclientsunderstandthatthetextmessagereminderandtelephonerecommendationarenomorethanabriefcommunicationoftheresearchopinionswhicharesubjecttothecompletereportreleasedontheCompanyswebsitehttpwwwswsresearchcomTheclientsmayaskforfollow-upexplanationsiftheysowishSaveandexceptasotherwisestipulatedinthisreportthecontactoruponthefirstpageofthereportonlyactsastheliaisonwhoshallnotprovideanyconsultingservicesThisreportisbasedonpublicinformationhowevertheauthenticityaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformationisnotwarrantedbytheCompanyThematerialstoolsopinionsandspeculationscontainedhereinarefortheclientsreferenceonlyandarenottoberegardedordeemedasaninvitationforthesaleorpurchaseofanysecurityorotherinvestmentinstrumentsThematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinonlyreflectthejudgmentoftheCompanyonthedaythisreportisreleasedThepricesvaluesandinvestmentreturnsofthesecuritiesorinvestmentinstrumentsreferredtohereinmayfluctuateAtdifferentperiodstheCompanymayreleasereportswhichareinconsistentwiththematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinTheclientsshallconsidertheCompanyspossibleconflictofinterestswhichmayaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandshallnotbasetheirinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthisreportTheclientsshouldmakeinvestmentdecisionsindependentlyandsolelyatyourownriskPleaseberemindedthatinanyeventthecompanywillnotsharegainsorlossesofanysecuritiesinvestmentwiththeclientsWhetherwrittenororalanycommitmenttosharegainsorlossesofsecuritiesinvestmentisinvalidTheinvestmentandservicesreferredtohereinmaynotbesuitableforcertainclientsandshallnotconstitutepersonaladviceforindividualclientsTheCompanydoesnotensurethatthisreportfullytakesintoconsiderationoftheparticularinvestmentobjectivesfinancialsituationsorneedsofindividualclientsTheCompanystronglysuggeststheclientstoconsiderthemselveswhethertheopinionsorsuggestionshereinaresuitablefortheclientsparticularsituationsandtoconsultanindependentinvestmentconsultantifnecessaryUndernocircumstancesshalltheinformationcontainedhereinortheopinionsexpressedhereinformsaninvestmentrecommendationtoanyoneUndernocircumstancesshalltheCompanybeheldresponsibleforanylosscausedbytheuseofanycontentshereinbyanyonePleasebeparticularlycautioustotherisksandexposuresofthemarketviainvestmentIndependentinvestmentconsultantshouldbeconsultedbeforeanyinvestmentdecisionisrenderedbasedonthisreportoratanyrequestofexplanationforthisreportwherethereceiverofthisreportisnotaclientoftheCompanyTheCompanypossessesallcopyrightsofthisreportwhichshallbetreatedasnon-publicinformationTheCompanyreservesallrightsrelatedtothisreportUnlessotherwiseindicatedinwritingallthecopyrightsofallthematerialshereinbelongtotheCompanyIntheabsenceofanypriorauthorizationbytheCompanyinwritingnopartofthisreportshallbecopiedphotocopiedreplicatedorredistributedtoanyotherpersoninanyformbyanymeansorbeusedinanyotherwayswhichwillinfringeuponthecopyrightsoftheCompanyAllthetrademarksservicemarksandmarksusedhereinaretrademarksservicemarksormarksoftheCompanyandnooneshallhavetherighttousethematanycircumstanceswithoutthepriorconsentoftheCompanyPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers4