研究报告全文：SWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorldNewEnergyCompanyResearch20February2023StepbystepBuyGCLTechnologyHoldings03800HKUnchangedMarketData17February2023ClosingpriceHK215GCLTechnologyreleasedapositiveprofitalertlastnightstatingthatnetprofitattributabletotheHSCEI6991ownersofthecompanyduring2022isexpectednottobelessthanRmb155bnAccordingto52-weekhighLowHK396193managementoperatingprofitofthecompanywasaboutRmb16-17bnwhiletherewasaboutMarketCapHKm58215Rmb2bnimpairmentlossofobsoleteassetsTherecordnetprofitwasmainlyduetotheincreaseinSharesoutstandingm27077bothsalesandvolumeofpolysiliconandtheprominentcostadvantageofitsgranularsiliconExchangeRateRmb-HK114GraduallyclearcostofgranularsiliconAsitsfirstfullyindependentgranularsiliconproductionsitePricePerformanceChartLeshan100000MTprojectrevealeditsactualproductioncostrecentlySinceonly3modulesof5000400060000tonshavebeenputintoproductionandarestillrampingupcurrentlytotalCOGSincluding3000depreciationandSGAcostisaboutRmb53kgandwillachieveRmb48kgwithinthisyearPossible20001000costreductionpathsincludedecreasesinitsunitpowerconsumptionandinsidematerialcostof000-1000FluidizedbedForcomparisontotalCOGSofrodsiliconintier-1companyisaboutRmb58-60kg9--200013higherthanthatofgranularsiliconGiventhatelectricityconsumptionrateofFBRtechnologyis-3000-400066lessthanthatofimprovedSiemensmethodandthattheelectricityratecutinwesternChina-5000hasbeengraduallyabolishedwebelievethelowerpowerconsumptionofFBRtechnologywillbringmorebenefitstothecompany协鑫科技恒生中国企业指数SourceBloombergImprovingqualityofgranularsiliconAmajorqualityindicatorofgranularsiliconisitstotalmetalcontentwhichwillaffecttheminorcarrierofwaferandthentheconversionefficiencyofcellTheAnalystsmallerthetotalmetalcontentthebetterthequalityItsqualityhasimprovedmuchTheproportionChenChuyaoofproductswithtotalmetalcontentlessthan3ppbwhasincreasedfrom55in3Q22to80in4Q22A0230521110001CurrentlygranularsiliconcanbeusedinP-typewaferproductionwithamixingratioof40LeadingchencyswsresearchcomwaferproducersareactivelytestingtheperformanceofgranularsilicononN-typewaferproductionwithamixingratioof40andtheresultswerequiteinspiringAsaresultwelookforwardtogranularContactsiliconsbetterperformanceonwaferproductionandhigherrecognitionofthemarketChenChuyaoA0230521110001CapacityExpansionByconstructingitsprojectsofXuzhouLeshanBaotouHohhotandWuhaiitschencyswsresearchcomnominalgranularsiliconcapacitywillreach300000MTand500000MTin2023and2024respectivelyGiventhattherecognitionofgranularsilicongrowsweestimatethatmarketshareofgranularsiliconmeasuredbyproductionwillreach144and224in2023and2024respectivelyThecompanywillthereforetastethesweetnessofsuchrapidincreaseinmarketshareofitsexclusiveadvancedtechnologyAccordingtomanagementLeshanandBaotouprojectswillrampupthisyearandweexpectthecompanytosell290000tonsofpolysiliconin2023ofwhich210000tonsaregranularsiliconMaintainBUYRatingConsideringitsimpairmentlossofassetsin2022andpricedecreaseinpolysiliconthereafterwelowerourEPSforecastsfrom22-24EfromRmb065toRmb057in22E2053YoYfromRmb074toRmb059in23E27YoYandfromRmb067toRmb043in24E-26YoYWebelievetheadvancedFBRtechnologywillbringsignificantcostandmarketbenefitstothecompanyConsequentlywemaintainourtargetpriceofHK442andmaintainbuyratingRisksdownstreamdemandbelowexpectationCapacityexpansionbelowexpectationFinancialsummaryandvaluation202020212022E2023E2024ERevenueRmbm1462119698367804201941890GrowthYoY-240347867142-03NetprofitRmbm-56685084155221594211793GrowthYoY-277411897205327-260EPSRmb-028021057059043ROE-266178391345206Dividendyield0000000000PEx-6791333243PBx2316110807NoteEPSiscalculatedasthenetprofitattributabletoshareholdersdividedbytotalsharecapitalSWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorld投资要点协鑫科技昨晚发布盈喜2022年归母净利润不低于155亿元人民币据管理层公司2022年经营利润约160-170亿元计提老旧资产减值约20亿元22年盈利大幅增长主因多晶硅量价齐升以及颗粒硅成本优势显著颗粒硅生产成本逐步清晰作为协鑫科技第一个完全独立的颗粒硅生产基地乐山10万吨项目近期披露了实际生产成本由于项目仍在爬坡目前仅3个模块投产在产产能6万吨目前乐山基地的全成本含折旧和三费为53元kg今年将降低至48元kg潜在降本空间包括单位电耗持续降低流化床内衬采购成本下降作为对比一线棒状硅全成本在58-60元kg相比颗粒硅高9-13由于硅烷流化床法FBR电耗要比改良西门子法低66随着国内西部地区优惠电价逐步取消我们认为公司将越来越受益于低电耗的流化床技术颗粒硅质量逐步改善表现颗粒硅质量的重要指标为总金属杂质含量硅料的金属杂质含量将影响硅片的少子寿命进而影响电池片的转换效率总金属杂质含量越低硅料品质越好颗粒硅品质自2H22以来改善明显总金属含量在3ppbw以下的颗粒硅占比由55提升至80目前颗粒硅可以掺杂40应用于下游的P型硅片量产中龙头硅片厂商也在积极试用颗粒硅于N型硅片生产中目前40掺杂比例的验证结果相对乐观我们认为品质提升的颗粒硅将在硅片端应用更好市场接受度逐步提高加速扩产通过徐州乐山包头呼和浩特乌海五个项目的建设公司23-24年颗粒硅的名义产能将达30万吨和50万吨随着颗粒硅的市场接受度逐步提升预计23-24年颗粒硅的市占率实际出货量口径将达144和224公司将充分享受颗粒硅市占率快速提升的技术红利据管理层乐山和包头的两个10万吨项目将于今年年内达产预计23年公司硅料全口径出货量将达29万吨其中颗粒硅约21万吨维持买入评级考虑到22年公司资产减值及后续硅料价格下降因素我们下调22-24年EPS如下22年EPS057元同比205323年EPS059元同比2724年EPS043元同比-26前值分别为065元074元067元我们看好颗粒硅市占率快速提升给公司带来的技术红利维持目标价442港元维持买入评级风险提示下游装机需求不及预期公司扩产不及预期JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchCompanyfinancialsConsolidatedincomestatementRmbm202020212022E2023E2024ERevenuefromprincipleoperations1462119698367804201941890Costofsales-10918-12350-16592-16750-21401Grossprofit37027348201882526820489Otherincome692767700700700Distributionexpense-94-98-147-147-147Sellinggeneraladministrativeexpense-1814-2034-2391-2017-2011EBITDA2329254196182560621178EBIT-30057195186832415219059Financecost-3155-1903-818-766-714Profitbeforetax-61615292178652338618345Incometaxexpense-110-591-2067-3207-2622Minorityinterest-603-38327642383931Netprofitattributabletocommon-56685084155221594211793shareholdersSourceCompanydataSWSResearchConsolidatedcashflowstatementRmbm202020212022E2023E2024EProfitbeforetaxation-61615292178652338618345PlusDepreciationamortisation8782205993514542118Financecost31551903818766714Gainslossesfrominvestment50387108200Changeinworkingcapital-3480-4854593-25778389Others-5745-3227-6150-6669-5606CFfromoperatingactivities15891882141431636023961Capex-476-3189-2654-6035-9720OtherCFfrominvestingactivities32133932665715122118CFfrominvestingactivities27377434003-4523-7602Proceedsfromshareissuance243769234900Netchangeinliabilities-2981-4380-6424821804Dividendandinterestpaid-2555-1802-818-766-714OtherCFfromfinancingactivities11359081500CFfromfinancingactivities-41582420-1096-2851090Netcashflow1685045170501155217449SourceCompanydataSWSResearchConsolidatedbalancesheetRmbm202020212022E2023E2024ECurrentassets2748129815501656357081882Cashcashequivalents55749467253513690354352Tradeandotherreceivables1648817527215742452424477Inventories48995112629721882Othercurrentassets49301870197811711171Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers1JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchLong-terminvestment795610637149811698917855PPE3670618293150611904226644Intangibleandotherassets83605353524552455245Totalassets805036409885452104847131626Currentliabilities4464924217295082871539123Borrowings267295807575262507406Tradeandotherpayables1253113853183421818727443Othercurrentliabilities53894557541442784274Long-termliabilities154637579749775058153Totalliabilities6011231796370043622047276Minorityinterest380232763552779011721Shareholdersequity2039132302484486862884351Sharecapital18632359270827082708Reserves1472626667421895813069923Totalequity1658929026448966083872630Totalliabilitiesandequity805036409885453104848131627SourceCompanydataSWSResearchKeyperformanceindicators202020212022E2023E2024EPer-shareindicatorsRmbEarningspershare0280602068057320588804355Dilutedearningspershare0280602065057230587804348OperatingCFpershare008008052060088Dividendpershare000000000000000Netassetspershare082118166225268KeyoperatingindicatorsROIC34109302291181ROE266178391345206Grossprofitmargin253373549601489EBITDAmargin16470533609506EBITmargin206365508575455RevenuegrowthYoY24034786714203NetprofitgrowthYoY277411897205327260Assetliabilityratio747496433345359Netassetturnover0607090705Totalassetturnover0203050404Effectivetaxrate200193150150150Dividendyield0000000000ValuationindicatorsxPE-6791333243PB2316110807EVSales5125100603EVEBITDA318853191005SourceCompanydataSWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers2JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchInformationDisclosureUndertakingsoftheAnalystIWeamareconferredtheProfessionalQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustrybytheSecuritiesAssociationofChinaandhaveregisteredastheSecuritiesAnalystIherebyissuethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligenceprofessionalandprudentresearchmethodsandonlylegitimateinformationisusedinthisreportIamalsoresponsibleforthecontentandopinionsofthisreportIhaveneverbeenamnotandwillnotbecompensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecificrecommendationsoropinionshereinDisclosurewithrespecttotheCompanyThecompanyisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritiesThecompanyisaqualifiedsecuritiesinvestmentconsultinginstituteapprovedbyChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionTheaffiliatesoftheCompanymayholdortradetheinvestmenttargetsmentionedinthisreportinaccordancewiththelawandmayalsoprovideorseektoprovideinvestmentbankingservicesforthesetargetsTheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithinitssphereofknowledgeTheclientsmaycontactcomplianceswsresearchcomfortherelevantdisclosurematerialsorlogintowwwswsresearchcomfortheanalystsqualificationsthearrangementofthequietperiodandtheaffiliatesshareholdingsIntroductionofShareInvestmentRatingSecurityInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupofthesecurityandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthisreportwedefinethetermsasfollowsBUYSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20upsideOutperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20upsideHoldSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10downsideto10upsideUnderperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20downsideSELLSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20downsideIndustryInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupoftheindustryindexandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthereportwedefinethetermsasfollowsOverweightIndustryperformsbetterthanthatofthewholemarketNeutralIndustryperformsaboutthesameasthatofthewholemarketUnderweightIndustryperformsworsethanthatofthewholemarketWewouldliketoremindyouthatdifferentsecurityresearchinstitutionsadoptdifferentratingterminologiesandratingstandardsWeadopttherelativeratingmethodtorecommendtherelativeweightingsofinvestmentTheclientsdecisionstobuyorsellsecuritiesshallbebasedontheiractualsituationsuchastheirportfoliostructuresandothernecessaryfactorsTheclientsshallreadthroughthewholereportsoastoobtainthecompleteopinionsandinformationandshallnotrelysolelyontheinvestmentratingstoreachaconclusionTheCompanyemploysitsownindustryclassificationsystemTheindustryclassificationisavailableatoursalespersonnelifyouareinterestedHSCEIisthebenchmarkemployedinthisreportDisclaimerThisreportispublishedbySWSResearchCoLtdsubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritieshereinafterreferredtoastheCompanyinmainlandChinaexcludingHongKongMacaoandTaiwanandtobeusedsolelybytheclientsoftheCompanyincludingQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestorsandotherqualifiedclientsinaccordancewiththelawTheCompanywillnotdeemanyotherpersonasitsclientnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisreportTheclientsunderstandthatthetextmessagereminderandtelephonerecommendationarenomorethanabriefcommunicationoftheresearchopinionswhicharesubjecttothecompletereportreleasedontheCompanyswebsitehttpwwwswsresearchcomTheclientsmayaskforfollow-upexplanationsiftheysowishSaveandexceptasotherwisestipulatedinthisreportthecontactoruponthefirstpageofthereportonlyactsastheliaisonwhoshallnotprovideanyconsultingservicesThisreportisbasedonpublicinformationhowevertheauthenticityaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformationisnotwarrantedbytheCompanyThematerialstoolsopinionsandspeculationscontainedhereinarefortheclientsreferenceonlyandarenottoberegardedordeemedasaninvitationforthesaleorpurchaseofanysecurityorotherinvestmentinstrumentsThematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinonlyreflectthejudgmentoftheCompanyonthedaythisreportisreleasedThepricesvaluesandinvestmentreturnsofthesecuritiesorinvestmentinstrumentsreferredtohereinmayfluctuateAtdifferentperiodstheCompanymayreleasereportswhichareinconsistentwiththematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinTheclientsshallconsidertheCompanyspossibleconflictofinterestswhichmayaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandshallnotbasetheirinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthisreportTheclientsshouldmakeinvestmentdecisionsindependentlyandsolelyatyourownriskPleaseberemindedthatinanyeventthecompanywillnotsharegainsorlossesofanysecuritiesinvestmentwiththeclientsWhetherwrittenororalanycommitmenttosharegainsorlossesofsecuritiesinvestmentisinvalidTheinvestmentandservicesreferredtohereinmaynotbesuitableforcertainclientsandshallnotconstitutepersonaladviceforindividualclientsTheCompanydoesnotensurethatthisreportfullytakesintoconsiderationoftheparticularinvestmentobjectivesfinancialsituationsorneedsofindividualclientsTheCompanystronglysuggeststheclientstoconsiderthemselveswhethertheopinionsorsuggestionshereinaresuitablefortheclientsparticularsituationsandtoconsultanindependentinvestmentconsultantifnecessaryUndernocircumstancesshalltheinformationcontainedhereinortheopinionsexpressedhereinformsaninvestmentrecommendationtoanyoneUndernocircumstancesshalltheCompanybeheldresponsibleforanylosscausedbytheuseofanycontentshereinbyanyonePleasebeparticularlycautioustotherisksandexposuresofthemarketviainvestmentIndependentinvestmentconsultantshouldbeconsultedbeforeanyinvestmentdecisionisrenderedbasedonthisreportoratanyrequestofexplanationforthisreportwherethereceiverofthisreportisnotaclientoftheCompanyTheCompanypossessesallcopyrightsofthisreportwhichshallbetreatedasnon-publicinformationTheCompanyreservesallrightsrelatedtothisreportUnlessotherwiseindicatedinwritingallthecopyrightsofallthematerialshereinbelongtotheCompanyIntheabsenceofanypriorauthorizationbytheCompanyinwritingnopartofthisreportshallbecopiedphotocopiedreplicatedorredistributedtoanyotherpersoninanyformbyanymeansorbeusedinanyotherwayswhichwillinfringeuponthecopyrightsoftheCompanyAllthetrademarksservicemarksandmarksusedhereinaretrademarksservicemarksormarksoftheCompanyandnooneshallhavetherighttousethematanycircumstanceswithoutthepriorconsentoftheCompanyPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers3