>> 招银国际-CG Services (6098 HK) Is it time to bottom fish yet？-230306
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研究报告全文：6Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateCGServices6098HKBUYMaintainIsittimetobottomfishyetTargetPriceHK4763UpDownside197TheprofitalertcameslightlybelowexpectationforbothreportedandcoreprofitsCurrentPriceHK1604at-51to-575vsmostbearishmarketexpectationof-507ThismayputitssharepriceunderpressureatthemarketopeningHoweverwethinktheworstisalmostoveras1netprofitgrowthmaystarttoacceleratein2023EChinaPropertyServiceSectoratdoubledigitwithimprovingmacroandtheassumedadditionof100mnsqmmanagedGFA2CountryGardenstartedtoseesalespickupinFeb10JeffreyZengMoM3Impairmentwouldbelimitedin2023EafterRMB2bndonein2022TheremightbepotentialRMB700mndebtfromitsacquisitionofCaixinwhichis85239163727currentlyunderlawsuitbuttheamountisquitesmallcomparedtoRMB88bncashjeffreyzengcmbicomhkonhands4ThemanagementmayconsidertoincreasedividendpayoutNet-netwesuggestinvestorstobuyat8x2023EPEassuming10coreprofitYoYMiaoZhanggrowthin2023Evscurrentlyat9x85237618910WhatsnewAftermarketcloseon3MarchCGSannouncedtheprofitsalertzhangmiaocmbicomhkthatits2022Ereportedprofitsdeclinedby51-57YoYmainlyduetogoodwillimpairmentIfaddingitbackthecoreprofitwouldgrow5YoYBellaLi85237576202Slightlymissedbothreportedandcoreprofitscameslightlybelowbellalicmbicomhkexpectationof-50YoYand7YoYTheworseningmacroin2H22hasdamageditsgrowthprofilewith2H22coreprofit-17YoYandcoreNPMStockDatashrinkingto10vs14in1H22ThereforewemightseesomepressureMktCapHKmn54105onthestockpricewhenthemarketopensAvg3mthstoHKmn80872AnymorewriteoffsWethinkRMB2bngoodwillimpairmenthascleared52wHighLowHK4615652thepathfor2023EastheimprovingmacrowouldhelpreducethelikelihoodTotalIssuedSharesmn3373SourceBloombergoffurtherwriteoffOtherthanthattherecouldbeonlypotentialRMB700mndebtfromtheacquisitionofCasinSmartlifewhichprovidedguaranteeShareholdingStructureobligationstoatrustfinancingAstheguaranteehappenedbeforetheYanHuiyan361acquisitionwithoutanynotificationCGSiscurrentlytakinglegalactiontoPinganInsurance83protectitsrightsAnywaytheamountisrelativelysmallcomparedtoitsFreefloat556RMB88bncashpositionasof1H22SourceHKExFuturegrowthprofileWithimprovingmacroandCountryGardenssalesSharePerformancerecoveryFebsales10MoMwemayseecoreprofitsresumingbacktoAbsoluteRelativedoubledigitgrowthin2023EThiscanbeachievedbyjustassumingthe1-mth-152-107additionof100mnsqmofmanagedGFA50mnsqmdeliveredfromCGand3-mth-143-2226-mth1529050mnsqmfromthird-partyexpansionIfCGScouldmakesomesmall12-mth-646-622acquisitionsevena15-20YoYgrowthwillnotbefar-fetchedIntheSourceBloombergmeanwhilethemanagementmayconsidertoincreasethedividendpayoutratiowithstrongcashposition30in2021OurTPandfinancialsare12-mthPricePerformancecurrentlyunderreviewEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn1560028843433036195586155YoYgrowth617849501431391NetincomeRMBmn268640335662786310899EPSRMB098128169235326YoYgrowth557311322389386ConsensusEPSRMBNANA194270324PExNANA806048SourceBloombergPBxNA1561279264YieldNA08111521AuditorPwCROE184111141171201NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk6Mar2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue1560028843433036195586155Profitbeforetax3715567377401086415220BasicPM860713794213483083441400DA60NA606060Non-ownerVAS13702675393653986983Changeinworkingcapital3951NA2182254311128CommunityVAS173133286106942614806Others1017NA183425693592Cityservices8844529478556356831Netcashfromoperating6709NA814810899561Others300938636147919013928Costofsales1030119979305404390160896Capex5570NA280028002800GrossProfit53008864127631805425259JVAssociates-NA---Otherincome121199238286343Others44NA---Sellingexpenses136338476620862Netcashfrominvesting5526NA280028002800Administrativeexpenses19503259454765059046Impairment98188291421565Equityraised-NA---Operatingprofit3236527776861079415129Changeofdebts3812NA---Others3307NA141619662725JVAssociates4141547091Netcashfromfinancing7118NA141619662725Financecost4498---Exceptional394452---Netchangeincash83013596393261334964Pre-taxProfit3715567377401086415220Cashatthebeginningoftheyear691415215116191555121684Exchangedifference-----Incometax9331323178024993501Cashattheendoftheyear1521511619155512168416720PROFITFORTHEYEAR278243495960836511720Non-controllinginterest96316298502820KeyratiosNetProfitattributeto268640335662786310899YE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EshareholdersSalesmixBasicPM552478493498481Non-ownerVAS8893918781BalancesheetCommunityVAS111115141152172YE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ECityservices571571109179Non-currentassets791635612380154082643658Commercialoperationalservices0023232426Propertyplantandequipment12491366213629073678Others193134142148162Intangibleassets617627945299153188533855Total10001000100010001000Others4906302596560356126ProfitlossratiosGrossmargin340307295291293Currentassets2328831200430545940267687Netmargin172140131127127Tradeandotherreceivables524415578233883346146532Effectivetaxrate251233230230230Cashandcashequivalents1521511619155512168416720Others28294004411542564435GrowthRevenue617849501431391Totalassets312046681381069100228111345Grossprofit736673440415399Operatingprofit800631457404402Currentliabilities1423324791348934765149773Netprofit608502404389386Tradeandotherpayables747614413220323167143931Others67571037812861159815842BalancesheetratiosCurrentratiox1613121214Non-currentliabilities8123649364936493649Receivableturnoverdays123197197197197Deferredincometaxliabilities5102275227522752275Others3021374137413741374ReturnsROE184111141171201Totalliabilities1504528439385425130053421ROA8660707898PershareEquitytoshareholders1456636187400434594154117EPSRMB098128169235326Non-controllinginterests15932187248529873807DPSRMB023030042059081TotalEquity1615938373425274892857924BVPSRMB284246303420605SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE26Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3
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