研究报告全文：MN6Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateYancoalAustralia3668HKInclusioninStockConnectare-ratingdriverTargetPriceHK4800WehostedNDRforYancoalYALinHongKonglastweekWesawrisingPreviousTPHK4800investorsinterestinYALKeytopicsincludeddividendpolicyStockConnectUpDownside488coalpriceexpectationandcosttrendInourviewmanagementprovidedclearCurrentPriceHK3225answerstothequestionsduringthemeetingsOntheotherhandHKExreleasedovertheweekendtheupdatedlistofstockeligiblefortheStockChinaEnergyConnectandYALisincludedforthefirsttimeWeexpectitwillboostthetradingWayneFUNGCFAvolumeandpotentiallytriggerare-ratinggiventhatYALoffersscarcityvalue85239000826forMainlandinvestorswhoarelookingforexposureinseabornecoalsectorwaynefungcmbicomhkhighdividendyield20andlowvaluation22x2023EMaintainBUYwithNPV-basedTPofHK48StockDataMktCapHKmn425842KeytakeawaysfromNDRDividendyieldManagementbelievesthattheAvg3mthstoHKmn320currentdividendpay-outfullyear45takesintoconsolidationofseveral52wHighLowHK39552200factorsincludingtheneedtorepaytheoutstandingdebtsandcapexTotalIssuedSharesmn13204SourceFactSetBesidegiventhatthefinaldividendisfullyfrankednodividendwithholdingtaxwillbepaidbyHongKonginvestorsSharebuybackManagementShareholdingStructurebelievesthatimprovingliquidityisakeytoenableYALtojoinStockYankuangEnergy623ConnectSharebuybackonthecontrarywillreducefreefloatandliquidityChinaCindaAM137SourceHKExCoalpriceManagementdoesnotforeseeasharpdeclineofcoalpriceduetolimitednewsupplyCosttrendYALexpectswithanincreaseinsalesSharePerformancevolumeeveryquarterwhichwillhelpbringtheunitcostdownsequentiallyAbsoluteRelative1-mth-0943thisyear3-mth12420InclusioninStockConnectHKExannouncedthelatestlistofstock6-mth-51-113eligiblefortheStockConnectForthefirsttimeforeigncompaniesareSourceFactSetincludedandYALisoneofthemTheinclusionwillcomeintoeffecton1312-mthPricePerformanceMarKeyriskfactors1declineincoalprice2furtherincreaseinunitcost3unfavourableweatherthataffectsproductionEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ESourceFactSetRevenueAUDmn3473540310548103869576AuditorShineWingAustraliaYoYgrowth2215569521578NetprofitAUDmn104027906358703576531434RelatedReports1YancoalAustralia3668HKNetEPSReportedAUD079060272271238profit35xYoYin2022butbelowYoYgrowthnana355003121expectationsAttractiveyieldof20-ConsensusEPSAUDcentsnana00000000028Feb20232YancoalAustralia3668HKPExna42222226ConfirmationofpricecapandvolumePBx0605100807toremoveoverhang14Feb2023Yield002822012221953YancoalAustralia3668HKThermalASPin4QcontinuedtobeatROE183139506400296benchmark20Jan2023Netgearing687316NetcashNetcashNetcash4YancoalAustralia3668HK3QSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesthermalcoalASPwayaboveNoteThermalcoalpriceassumptionsA350300250pertonneinFY22E23E24Ebenchmarkapositivesurprise-21Oct20225YancoalAustralia3668HK-FurtherriskreductionafterprepaymentofUS1bndebts3Oct2022PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk6Mar2023ValuationMaintainBUYwithTPofHK48WevalueYALbynetpresentvalueNPVcalculatedbythefuturecashflowofallthereservesbasedontheireffectiveminelifeOurkeyassumptionsincludeLong-termthermalandmetallurgicalcoalpricestarting2025EofA120tandA160trespectivelyLong-termunitcashcostinflationof1paWACCof66basedonriskfreerateof3810-yearAustraliangovernmentbondyieldriskpremiumof605xbetaand10debtcapitalratioAUDHKDrateofHK53Figure1TPsensitivityWACCLTcoalthermalcoalpriceAt4880100120140160462035506580562236496376662436486173762536475970862636475768NoteAssumingLTthermalcoalpriceA120tWACCLTmetallurgicalcoalpriceAt48120140160180200464547505356564447495254664446485153764345475052864345474950NoteAssumingLTmetallurgicalcoalpriceA160tSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2PeerscomptableTickerCompanyPriceMarketcapPExPBxEVEBITDAxDividendyieldlocalUSmFY1FY2FY1FY2FY1FY2FY1currencyOverseaslistedYALAUEquityYANCOALAUSTRALIA6205696222210080910201WHCAUEquityWHITEHAVENCOAL749463421261109091297NHCAUEquityNEWHOPECORPORATION5773542343418152021194BTUUSEquityPEABODYENERGY280340434480nana2031naGLENLNEquityGLENCOREPLC523008028569771616434690BHPAUEquityBHPBILLITON48321702941101123633585763AALLNEquityANGLOAMERICAN3042504527285911413414548BANPUTBEquityBANPUPUBLIC1090272733550707354881ADROIJEquityADAROENERGYTBK3020006372426009091520152Average516215142832116SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE26Mar2023Figure3Keyoperatingassumptions2017201820192020202120222023E2024EMarketablecoalproductionmntonnes100equitybasisMinesHVO14813313712010696120130MountThorleyWarkworthMTW118121121119112818090Moolarben124165178197184149180185StratfordDuralie0705080508070600Yarrabee2926283026212020Middlemount3938272937262727Ashton1211221812091010Total477499521518485389443462AttributablesalesvolumemntonnesThermal155284301332317246278288Metallurgical3851554258475759Total193335356374375293335347GrowthYoYThermal76183260103-45-22412936Metallurgical15234278-236381-19021036Average595736635103-21914236ASPAtonneThermal10212310076134372300260Metallurgical163183167123180406300290Blended11413211082141377300265ASPgrowthYoYThermal458200-183-2387541774-192-133Metallurgical536122-88-2634651255-261-33Blended429154-162-2617291673-204-116CashoperatingcostbreakdownAtonneUnitcashoperatingcost-71-73-73-67-77-131-125-115ChangeYoY3526-09-82162696-46-83Unitcashoperatingcostexcludinggovernmentroyalties-62-63-64-60-66-98-97-90ChangeYoY-110716-5495485-15-74SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteEquity-accountingforMiddlemountFigure4YALssalesvolumeprojectionFigure5YALsASPassumptionsTonnesmnAt4045035400303503002525020200151501010055000201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024EMetallurgicalThermalThermalMetallurgicalBlendedSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE36Mar2023Figure6YALsregionalrevenuebreakdownFigure7YALsunitcashcostbreakdown100ApertonneOtheroperating90120expenseOthers80Europe10070ProductmarketingIndiaandtransport8023121060Vietnam200Taiwan1561555060195145Contractualservices162160171Japan221158149andplanthire4040164126114109109335MainlandChina1039733129530ConsumablesfuelSouthKorea1591812001991782022015520electricitywaterandSingapore226228220otherutilitiesservices16915215515514715215410Australia0Workforce0employment20152016201720182019202020211H22SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteExcludinggovernmentroyaltiesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE46Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecAUDmnRevenue44603473540310548103869576Royaltiesandotherrelatedpayments310232421967952878Staffcosts525568578662763763Others209520592232254828442682Otherincome101703361325248EBITDA1631892136623958795302Depreciation607804831834859864EBIT10248931305540550204437Interestexpense233191259459249Others24595714611463Pre-taxprofit76711431103509251094491Incometax48103312150515331347Aftertaxprofit7191040791358735763143Minorityinterest000000Netprofit7191040791358735763143BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecAUDmnCurrentassets177313432531381051786596Cashequivalents9626371495269940495640Accountreceivables453344707736744621Inventories261312264330335294Othercurrentassets975065455141Non-currentassets932097129269899190478930PPE294033023232348637763908Right-of-useassets460255815149464243264033Deferredincometax000000InvestmentinJVsassos273257303413498545Intangibles97135138133130126Othernon-currentassets1408437447317317317Totalassets110931105511800128011422515525Currentliabilities21121199826253226082456Short-termborrowings126749666484848Accountpayables802665743863939787Othercurrentliabilities433817162116211621Non-currentliabilities281846634828223917391739Long-termborrowings223137093369625125125Othernon-currentliabilities5879541459161416141614Totalliabilities493058625654477143474195Totalshareholdersequity6161519161448028987611328Minorityinterest222222Totalequityandliabilities110931105511800128011422515525PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE56Mar2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecAUDmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation76711431103509251094491Depreciationamortization607804831934859864Taxpaid000015331347Changeinworkingcapital2825193805921Others2861034332659233245Netcashfromoperations16887202073676542613783InvestingCapitalexpenditure277238268544830700Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments42204100000Others188569287172208Netcashfrominvesting301527299257658492FinancingDividendpaid5142800162617291691Netborrowings698149413205000Proceedsfromshareissues000000Others2282144472465249Netcashfromfinancing1440493941541122531700NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear1031962637149526994049Exchangedifference16252510700Cashattheendoftheyear9626371495269940495640GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue802215569521578EBITDA156nana19215898EBIT274nana314371116Netprofit157nana353703121PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecEBITDAmargin36626395591566554ReturnonequityROE120183139506400296GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx040703030405Currentratiox081131152027Receivableturnoverdays411419355250260260Inventoryturnoverdays447554533474480480Payableturnoverdays11921090100899410001000VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE59na42222226PB070605100807Divyield9900282201222195SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE66Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7