>> 招银国际-China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly： Sales momentum accelerated on lower tier cities-230306
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研究报告全文：6Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPropertySectorPropertyWeeklySalesmomentumOUTPERFORMacceleratedonlowertiercitiesMaintainWesawanotherweekofstrongpropertydatawherenewhomesecondaryhomesaleswentup2312WoWThisisinlinewithoursalesleadingindexGAINChinaPropertySectorandourupgradereportthatsalesismoresustainablethanwhatmarketJeffreyZengthinksThesolidhousingrecoveryhasalsoacceleratedhousingconstruction85239163727activitiesthatitsconstructionresumptionraterecoveredto841higherthanjeffreyzengcmbicomhk2022alreadyandonlyslightlylaggingbehindtheinfrastructure873andgovernmentprojects882LookingforwardwithstillsupportivepolicynoMiaoZhangsurprisefromtwosessionweexpectasustainablesaleswouldfurtherpullup85237618910thedemandsideofconstructionssonewstartnameslikecementmayseezhangmiaocmbicomhkopportunitiesduetomarketslowexpectationFordeveloperswecontinuetolikeCRLandYuexiuLongforBinjiangHuafaBellaLiAnotherstrongweekforpropertysalesAsof2Marsecondaryhome85237576202saleswentup12WoWandliftedYTDsalesto44YoYThishasthepull-bellalicmbicomhkupimpactonnewhomesalesthatsaw23WoWandYTDsalesdeclinenarrowedto-13YoYInparticularnewhomesalesinTier3cities1YoYYTDpickedupfasterthanTier1-2cities-16YoYduetomuchlowerRelatedReportsbaseGoingforwardweexpectsalesmomentumtocontinueas1oursales1CountryGarden2007HKMrleadingindicatorandchannelchecksuggestsgoodmomentumboostedbyYeungsretirementnotasurprisehistoricallylowmortgagerateandstabilizedpropertyprice2Policywould2ChinaPropertySectorFebsalesremainsupportiveevidencedbycity-levelrelaxationsinNanjingZhuhaiandastrongbeatRaise2023forecastthementioningofRRRcutbyPBoCsGovernorYiGangConstructionactivitiesfurtheracceleratedAccordingto100NJZthe3ChinaPropertySectorMildlypositiveforCSRCspilotprivateoverallconstructionresumptionrateclimbedto861asof1Marhigherthaninvestmentschemeinrealestate80in2022Theimprovementissupportedbyallrounddemandpickupfromgovernment88infrastructure87andhousing84Wethinkhousing4ChinaPropertySectorGoodactivitieswillfurtherspeedupaftertherecoveryofsalesandmorefundstonewsisbadnewssupporthousingcompletionByregionYangtzeRiverDeltaperformedthe5ChinaPropertyServiceSectorbest93especiallyShanghaiLaggardslikeHenanShanxiwerepushedup2023ayearformarketleadersandto50from30mostlyincentedbycapitalinflowofhomecompletionfundssurvivorsCementpricewasdrivenupbyaccelerateddemandNationalcement6ChinaPropertySectorPropertypriceisgettingintoupwardtrendandclimbed3toRMB457mtfromtheWeeklyhopesarereturningpost-troughon10FebThestorageratiodroppedto638asof24FebEastandCNYSouthChinasawlargerpriceincreaseduetoexpandedoff-peakproduction7CRLand1109HKhaltandthedemandrecoverywasacceleratedPricewasweakinnorthernOutperformingFY22EpromisingregionduetoslowerconstructionresumptiongivenweatherconditionsFY23Eandnot-far-fetchingFY25EtargetSteelrebarpricewasrelativelysteadyatRMB4312mtasof28Feb-07WoWItislikelytobestableatthisrangeinSTasonthesupplysidecoal8ChinaPropertySectorPropertypricessurgedafterthemineaccidentinInnerMongoliaTheaccidentmayWeeklyWeakconstructionresumptionratedraggedbyleadtomoreinspectionsonotherminesandslightlyaffectcoalproductioninpropertySTThisputsmorepressureonprofitsofsteelcompaniesandlimitsthesupplyexpansionHowevertheacceleratingdemandrecoverywillgradually9COLI688HKFY22EpreviewpagenotyetturnedoffsettheupwardpressureonpricesOtherMaterialspriceforbothaluminumandfloatglassweresupportedby10ChinaPropertySectorCNYdemandrecoverybutlimitedbyinventoryaccumulationAluminumIngotpriceCrowdedmallspent-upbuyersbutoverbuilthouseswasalsoinfluencedbytheFedinterestoutlookandwentdown1535WoWMoMtoRMB18324mtasof28FebFloatglasspricesaw-044WoWMoMon24FebtoRMB1673mtWebelievethestrongsalesrecoveryandbettercashcollectionfordevelopersaswellassupportfromhomecompletionfundswillfurtherdriveupthecompletiondemandandthepriceofrelatedmaterialsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk6Mar2023Figure1YTDnewhomesalesdeclined14YoYvs-22-25inDecNov2022SourceWindCMBIGMFigure2YTDnewhomesalesinTier3citiessaw1YoYSourceWindCMBIGMFigure3YTDnewhomesalesinTier12citiessaw-16YoYSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE26Mar2023Figure4YTDsecondarysalesincreased43YoYvs-1225inDecNov2022SourceWindCMBIGMFigure5LeadingindicatorsuggestsstrongsalesinMarchSourceNBSCMBIGMFigure6AvgpriceofbulkcementPO425national-wideSourceMySteelCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE36Mar2023Figure7NationalcementstorageratioSourceWindCMBIGMFigure8SteelrebarpriceSourceMySteelCMBIGMFigure9AluminumingotpriceSourceMySteelCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE46Mar2023Figure105mmplainfloatglasspriceSourceBBGCMBIGMFigure11CompsheetofdevelopersSourceBBGCMBIGMFigure12CompsheetofpropertysupplychainSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE56Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalyst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