研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary6Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswereoverallstablethismorningAsianIGspaceslightlytightened1-2bpsandbuyingflowmainlyon24-26sbondsRecentnewissueAT1GlennKoCFA高志和HSBCandCTIHupc025ptForLGFVshort-endLGFVnameswereunder85236576235bettersellingthismorningglennkocmbicomhkChinaPolicyPolicyremainsaccommodativewithflexibilityin2023CMBImaintainsourforecastonChinasGDPgrowthin2023at54SeebelowfordetailedcommentsfromoureconomicresearchCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkLPKRIJAnnouncedanothertenderofUSD50mnfortwoUSDbondsLPKRIJsupc01ptthismorningSeebelowJerryWang王世超Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkLastFridayAsiaIGspacehadanotherrelativelyquietsessionwithmajorfocusstayedonnewissuesastwoJapaneseissuersNORBKSUMIpriced5ypapersandbothopenedstronglytightened10-15bpsNewSUMI28sinitiallytightened15bpstoT110thenretraced5bpstocloseataroundT115aswesawFMAMPBwerequitehappytotakeprofitatthesqueezedlevelsNewHSBC6NC5PerppricedatCT5185weretradedaroundT175choicemarketforthewholedayOnthesecondaryfrontthemarketwasrathermutedIGspreadswere2-3bpstighterKoreaspacewerefirmwithKBANK28stightened3bpsFrontendT2swerestillbeingchasedafterasWOORIB24wereliftedto10bpstighterintoT100areaInChinesefinancialsAMCsweretradedabitheavyWesawbettersellingonHRINTHcurveHRINTHGRWALL27-30swidened10-20bpsInChinaSOEsHAOHUASINOPEtightened3-7bpsamidactivetwo-wayflowsTMTbenchmark10ypaperswerestableBBBtechnamesLENOVOMEITUAcurveswidened3-6bpsacrossthecurveInIGpropertiesLNGFORswidened5-10bpsbutVNKRLEsYUEXIUstightened10-20bpsChinaHYspacewasrelativelyfirmwithnon-propertyspaceoutperformedCOGARDsedgedup05ptCHINSCsweretraded05-15ptshigheracrossthecurveYLLGSPCSCHCN24swerebidup05ptHoweverXINHUZsZENENTsweremarkeddown35-65ptsMacaugamingnamessuchasMGMCHIsSTCITYsweremarked05-1pthigherWYNMACsweretradedup05-15ptsposttheissuanceofCBsofUSD600mnThisisMacausfirstbondfinancingeversinceFeb22IndianspacehadastrongdayTheUSequityboutiqueGQGPartnershasboughtsharesaportfolioofAdanientitiesAELAPSEZATLAGELtotaledINR15446bnUSD187bninsecondarymarketADSEZsADANEMsADANIGsgained1-25ptsVEDLNswerebidup05ptwhilerenewablessuchasGRNKENsRPVINsPOWFINswere05-1pthigherIndonesiannamesLMRTSPsLPKRIJsgained1-2ptsElsewhereGLPCHIsGLPSPswerequoteddownaround1ptPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk16Mar2023LGFVPerpAsiaAT1spaceswerelargelystableOntherecentnewissuesdealerstriedtotradeNewCTIH64PerplowerinlightofUSD2bnmegaissuesizebutholdingpowerwasstrongerthanexpectedAftermoreChineseRMssteppedintotopupbelowparthebondwasquicklyshort-squeezedto10055thehighprintwhereprofittakingthenbegantoemergeandeventuallystabilizedataround1003levelamidbalancedtwo-wayflowsAwayfromprimarysideAT1swereunderbetterbuyingasratesretracedAT1sclosed025pthigherwiththinliquidityHSBC8Perprecovered05ptto101levelagainthankstorelentlessbuyingdemandfromPBsPerpsperformedmixedwiththeresetperpswerestillunderbetterbuyingROADKG775Perpwereuparound2ptsandFAEACOPerpwassought-afterbyPBsHYSAN485FFLPerphaddipbuyinginterestsataroundmid-70scashpricelevelOntheotherhandLEEMANNWDEVLREGHperpsweremarkeddown05-1ptElsewhereLGFVsweregenerallylacklusterwithsporadicflowsQDHTCO24spulledbackaround025ptandweremarkedto9575handleLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeLMRTSP71406192471621ZENENT1212042324519-66JD41801145078221ZENENT1212091323519-66ROADKG734PERP69119XINHUZ11060625709-61SINOPE47805174297618XINHUZ11092824910-37CNOOC505024294717FIRPAC438091127936-13MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketswerestronglastFridaySP161Dow117andNasdaq197recordedanotherreboundandclosedwithrisebyweekUSMarkitservicePMIincreasedto506from468inJan23ChinaCaixinservicePMIwas550rosefrom529inJan23TheUStreasuryyieldsoveralldownonlastFridaytheyieldcurvesbullflattenedand251030yieldsreached486426397390respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinaPolicyPolicyremainsaccommodativewithflexibilityin2023Chinas5growthtargetfor2023releasedattheNationalPeoplesCongressmeetingmaydisappointthemarketinneartermInvestorsthinkthetargetisconservativewiththeimplicationoflimitedpolicystimulusaheadHoweverinvestorsmaygotoofarinthepessimisticdirectionasthetargetwasactuallydecidedattheCEWCinmid-DecemberChinaspolicymaybemoreflexiblethanthemarketexpectationasnewcabinetleadershavetheambitiontorestorethecountrysgrowthmomentumamiduncertaintyinglobaleconomyTheymayfacethepressuretofurthereasepolicyin2H23asthedomesticeconomicrecoverypaceslowsdownandoverseasrecessionriskincreasesWemaintainourforecastonChinasGDPgrowthin2023at54Theproactivefiscalpolicyseemsweakerthanexpectedasbroaddeficitincludinggeneralfiscaldeficitandlocalgovernmentspecialbondfinancingdroppedfrom61ofGDPin2022to59ofGDPin2023MonetarypolicyshouldremainaccommodativewitheasingcreditsupplyespeciallytomanufacturingSMEsandtechnologycompaniesPropertypolicyseemsconservativeasPremierLiKeqiangreiteratedhousingisforlivinginnotforspeculationandwarnedtopreventpropertydevelopersfromdisorderlyexpansiontocontrolfinancialsystemrisksChinawillpoolmoreresourcesintohardtechnologiesforbreakthroughsandself-relianceastheUStriestocutmoreChinesecompaniesfromglobaltechnologysupplychainsChinaconfirmsits5growthtargetfor2023probablydisappointingthemarketPremierLiKeqiangconfirmedChinasGDPgrowthtargetfor2023ataround5inhisworkingreportAlowbasewith3growthlastyearandhighergrowthinmarketconsensusat5-6forthisyearmakesinvestorsbelievethe5growth26Mar2023targetistooconservativeandimplieslimitedpolicystimulusaheadThereforetheChinesestockmarketmaycomeunderpressureinneartermButinvestorsmaygotoofarintheirpessimisticexpectationsaboutChinaspolicyprospectInfactthegrowthtargetfor2023wasdiscussedinearlyDecemberanddecidedbythepartyleadersatthecentraleconomicworkingconferenceCEWCinmid-DecemberlastyearAtthattimetheChinesepolicymakerswerenotsurehowlongChinawouldtaketoreopenitseconomywhileinvestorswerestillworriedaboutaglobalrecessionin2023TheChineseseniorofficialsthoughtthe5growthtargetwasambitiousenoughtosendpro-growthsignaltolocalgovernmentsandboostmarketconfidenceHoweverChinasreopeningspeedwasmuchfasterthanexpectedThemarketexpectationsonChinaeconomyimprovedaftertheCEWCwiththe2023growthinconsensusupfrom45-5inearlylastDecemberto5-6inthisFebruaryNowthe5growthtargetseemedconservativeforthemarketWhyChinahasnotraiseditsgrowthtargetbasedontheeconomymarketdynamicsForonethingitisveryraretoadjusttheGDPgrowthtargetwhichisdecidedbythepartyleadersattheCEWCThisneverhappenedinChinainthepastyearsTake2022asanexampleeconomyandfinancialmarketconditionchangedsharplyaftertheRussia-UkrainewarinFebruarybutChinamaintaineditsgrowthtargetat55attheNPCmeetingandforthewholeyeareventhegrowthwasunlikelytoachieveitstargetForanotherthingitmayreflectthetopleadersbottom-linethinkinginmakingdecisionsWebelieveChinaspolicywillbeveryflexiblethisyearasthenewcabinetleadershavetheambitiontoresumeChinasgrowthwithuncertaintyindomesticeconomicrecoverypaceandoverseasrecessionriskEmploymentstabilityisimportantforconsumerconfidencerestorationChinaincreasesthetargetforurbanincrementalemploymentfrom11millionin2022to12millionin2023asthepolicymakersconsideremploymentstabilityasthekeyforconsumerconfidencerestorationChinakeepsthetargetforthesurveyedunemploymentrateat55in2023thesameasin2022Itisnotdifficultforthecabinettoachievetheemploymenttargetsin2023astherecoveryoflabor-intensiveservicebusinessesshouldhelpresumeurbanemploymentProactivefiscalpolicyisabitweakerthanexpectedasbroaddeficitratiowasslightlybelowourforecastChinasgeneralfiscaldeficitmildlyrosefrom28ofGDPin2022to3ofGDPin2023slightlybelowourforecastof31LocalgovernmentspecialbondquotamildlyrosefromRMB365trnin2022toRMB38trnin2023HoweverthepolicymakersaddedsomequotasforeligiblelocalgovernmentsunderthebalanceceilingslastyearaslocalgovernmentsnetfinancingwithspecialbondsreachedRMB404tnin2022Accordingtotheofficialbudgetgeneralfiscalrevenueisplannedtogrow67in2023afterrising06in2022thankstoeconomicrecoveryandbaseeffectGeneralfiscalexpenditureisplannedtoincrease56in202305pptlowerthanthegrowthof61in2022indicatingamoderateexpansionoffiscalexpenditureGovernmentspecialfundrevenuewithover85fromlandsalesisplannedtoslightlyrise04in2023afterdropping206in2022asthegovernmentexpectsastabilizationoflandmarketthisyearThecabinetwillmaintainsometaxcutpoliciestargetingmanufacturingSMEsindividualbusinessandafewsectorsintoughconditionbutthetotalamountoftaxcutreliefshouldbemuchlowerthanRMB42tnin2022GeneralfiscalexpenditureshouldfocusontechnologyinnovationruralrevitalizationregionalcoordinativedevelopmenteducationsocialwelfareandgreendevelopmentThecentralgovernmentwillnothandoutcashtohouseholdsastheMinistryofFinancesaidtoencourageeligiblemunicipalgovernmentstoprovidesubsidytopurchasersofgreensmarthomeapplianceconstructionmaterialsandenergysavingproductsTheMoFsaidtoacceleratethestartsofkeyprojectsinthe14th5YPlanwhilewarninglocalgovernmentstopayattentiontotheprojectreturnandtheircontingentdebtriskTheMoFindicatedtoexpandthezero-tariffproductlistforHainanfreetradezoneToboosttechnologyinnovationtheMoFwilllaunchakeyprojectcalledScientificTechInnovationfor2030andincreasesupporttokeyhardtechnologiesthisyearMonetaryshouldremainaccommodativewitheasingcreditsupplyAccordingtothedevelopmentplanfor2023thecentralbankwillmaintainreasonableampleliquidityconditiontostabilizemarketexpectationsandcontrolsystematicrisksThegrowthratesofM2andsocialfinancingbalancewillbebasicallyinlinewithnominalGDPgrowthThepolicymakersencouragebankstoexpandmedium-tolong-termloansupplytomanufacturingandincreasecreditsupporttosmallbusinessandsmallmediumspecialtechcompaniesThecabinetcallsfor36Mar2023declinesofloanratesforbusinessesandconsumersThePBOCseemsmorecautiousonfurtherRRRLPRcutsinneartermduetorecentstrongnewcreditandbetter-than-expectedrecoveryinhousingsalesHoweverwedonotthinkthecentralbankwilltightencreditpolicyastheeconomyisstillintherecoveryprocessandthereflationpressureismildWecannotruleoutthepossibilityofRRRandLPRcutsin2H23asChinasrecoverypacemayslowandoverseasrecessionriskmayincreaseafterafewmonthsaheadPropertypolicyseemsmoreconservativethanexpectedPremierLisaidtosupporthousingupgradingdemandwhilereiteratinghousingisforlivinginnotforspeculatingonThepremieralsosaidtorelievefinancialsystemriskrelatedtopropertydevelopersbystrengtheningtheirbalancesheetsandpreventingtheirdisorderlyexpansionThisexpressionshouldbenegativetothemarketastheauthorityusedsimilarwordsincrackingdowninternetplatformsandonlinetutorsin2021InadditionthepremierpledgedtoincreasethesupplyofsocialhousingincludingaffordablerentalhousingtoresolvethelivingissuefortheyouthincitiesChinawillpoolmoreresourcestohardtechnologiesforbreakthroughsandself-relianceAccordingtothecabinetreportChinawillpoolmoreresourcestohardtechnologiesforself-relianceastheUStriestocutmoreChinesecompaniesfromglobaltechnologysupplychainsTheMoFwilllaunchthesciencetechinnovationfor2030Chinawillacceleratetheconstructionofhardtechinfrastructureincludingin5GartificialintelligenceandbigdataandsupportthedevelopmentofdigitaleconomyThecountrywillalsoconsolidateitsleadingpositioninareassuchaselectricvehiclesandsolarpanelsTheChinesepolicymakerswillalsoenhancecreditandcapitalmarketfinancingsupporttoChinesetechcompaniesClickhereforfullreportLPKRIJAnothertenderofUSD50mnLippoKarawaciannouncedanothertenderofferofLPKRIJ25and26foramaximumacceptanceamountofUSD50mnTheofferpricesare87and77forLPKRIJ25and26respectivelyThetenderofferwillexpireon13Mar23ThisisthesecondtenderofferofLippoKarawaciYTDInJan23thecompanycompletedthetenderofferofUSD116262mnandUSD108466mnforLPKRIJ25and26at84and74respectivelyThetenderoffershouldpartlyrelieveitsrefinancingriskNameOSamountConsiderationMaximumExpirationCurrentpriceYTMUSDmnacceptanceamounttimeAskAskUSDmnLPKRIJ812501222527414875013Mar23857174LPKRIJ675103126308567713Mar23747162SourceBloombergcompanyannouncementOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedToday46Mar2023OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFCommonwealthBankofAustraliaUSD-33yrT95FRNSOFRAa3AA-ANewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere65creditbondsissuedlastFridaywithanamountofRMB67bnAsforMonth-to-date260creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB233bnraisedrepresentinga124yoyincreaseADEINMediareportedthatAdaniGrouphasaroundUSD2bninforeigncurrencybondsdueforrepaymentnextyearCIFIHGCIFIremitsfundsfortwoMarchdomestic-bondcouponstotaledRMB1112mnCSCHCNMediareportedthatChinaSouthCityexpectstocloseRMB3bnthree-yearsyndicatedloanbeforeJuneFOSUNIMediareportedFosunisinpreliminarytalkstosellonlinetravelagentThomasCookJDJDcomlaunchedaRMB10bncUSD145bnsubsidycampaigntogainmarketshareLASUDELaiSunDevelopmenttoexecutecorporateguaranteeforHKD668mntermloanfacilitiesforprojectinTaiPolandlotYUEXIUYuexiuPropertysignsHKD450mnthree-yeartermloanfacilityagreementCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanyloss56Mar2023damageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6