研究报告全文：MN8Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateAACTech2018HK4Q22PreviewearningsrecoveryremainsbumpyMaintainHOLDTargetPriceHK1562AACwillreport4Q22resultson23MarWeestimate4QrevenuenetprofittoPreviousTPHK154increase1618YoYtoRMB5579mn250mnslightlybelowconsensusUpDownside138mainlydrivenbystrongerdemandinApplesacousticshapticsandToyosPMCurrentPriceHK1812salescontributiondespitepressureinopticssegmentBysegmentweexpectacousticsEDPMopticstogrow23129YoYin4Q22ELookingaheadChinaTechnologygivenAndroidsongoinginventorydestockingandApplesweakseasonalityinAlexNG1H23Ewebelievedemandweaknessandloss-makingopticssegmentwilldrag85239000881earningsrecoveryforAACintheneartermThestockisnowtradingat164xalexngcmbicomhkFY23EPEwhichisfairinourviewMaintainHoldwithSOTP-basedTPHK1562implying141xFY23EPEClaudiaLIUclaudialiucmbicomhk4Q22PreviewstrongEMDPMandsloweropticsrecoveryBackedbyiPhone14cyclein4Q22EweestimateacousticshapticssegmentwillgrowStockDataMktCapHKmn217078212YoYin4Q22EwhileAndroidssluggishdemandandintenseAvg3mthstoHKmn187competitionledtoweaknessinopticssegmentwithlowutilizationand52wHighLowHK22301114ASPmarginpressureAsforPMsegmentdrivenbysalescontributionfromTotalIssuedSharesmn11980SourceFactSetnewlyacquiredToyosNBcasingandimprovingproductmixweexpectrevenuewilljump110YoYOverallweexpect4Q22ErevenuenetprofittogrowShareholdingStructure1618YoYtoRMB5579mn250mnWuChunyuan220PanZhengmin1962023outlookEyesonmarginrecoveryautomotiveandARVRLookingSourceHKExaheaddespiteindustryheadwindsin1H23EwebelievethemarketwillfocusSharePerformanceon1marginrecoveryofmultiplesegmentsespeciallyopticallensHCM2AbsoluteRelativeprogressofautomotiveacousticsprojectswithleadingChineseEV1-mth-105-723-mth41-46customersandtier-onesand3massproductionofnew3PVRpancake6-mth231142modulein2023EInadditionwearepositiveonsharegainpotentialofnewlySourceFactSetacquiredToyosPMbusiness12-mthPricePerformanceMaintainHOLDonfairvaluationat162xFY23EPEWhilewearepositiveon4Q22earningsrecoverywebelieveintensecompetitioninopticsAndroidsdestockingandApplesseasonalweaknessin1H23EwillbemajoroverhangforthestockWemaintainHOLDwithnewSOTP-basedTPofHK1562implying141xFY23EPETradingat164xFY23EPEthestockisfairlyvaluedinourviewSourceFactSetEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn1714017667203642090921744YoYgrowth42311532740NetprofitRMBmn150671316383421188512992YoYgrowth32212636642593EPSReportedRMB125109069098108YoYgrowth32112636642593ConsensusEPSRMBnana068098127PEx342324231162149PBx0000000000Yield14611544216030783365ROE7359375255SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk8Mar20234Q22ResultsPreviewFigure14Q22resultspreviewCMBIGMConsensusRMBmn4Q213Q224Q22EQoQYoY4Q22EDiffRevenue48125373557941654572Grossprofit986102210816101102-2Operatingprofit26121825517-2305-16Adjnetprofit212234250718257-3AdjEPSRMB018020021618022-6Grossmargin20519019404ppt-11ppt202-08pptOperatingmargin54414605ppt-09ppt56-1pptAdjnetmargin44444501ppt01ppt47-02pptSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure1RevenuebreakdownRMBmnFY211Q222Q223Q224Q22EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueDynamiccomponents85822230190923202288874889059359MEMScomponents1013237241421262116212781406HapticsRF56391501143120502350733175547636Othersincloptics2433928934582679312331733343Optics2389924929567659307931363306Others43461519443636Total176674896451653735579203642090921744RevenuemixDynamiccomponents4946424341434343MEMScomponents65585666HapticsRF3231323842363635Othersincloptics1419211112151515YoYGrowthDynamiccomponents146-652225MEMScomponents-6-1616610151010HapticsRF-18221747313031Othersincloptics47351447272825Optics4636044292925Total314527161534GrossprofitmarginDynamiccomponents2972665270269270269269270MEMScomponents1511411507490107130140HapticsRF2161961612152192071831863948-127-109Othersincloptics18327-346464Optics1723545-140-118-276362Total247195183190194191198200SourceCompanydataCMBIGM16152414PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE28Mar2023EarningsRevisionFigure2CMBIGMearningsrevisionsNewOldChangeRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue203642090921744203802073421581011GrossProfit3890415043633854426544541-3-2OperatingProfit89811981249843129613647-8-8Netprofit83411891299801128914174-8-8EPSRMB0690981080661071174-8-8GrossMargin19119820018920520602ppt-07ppt-06pptOperatingMargin44575741626303ppt-05ppt-06pptNetMargin41576039626602ppt-05ppt-06pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue2036420909217442021522433248251-7-12GrossProfit389041504363391345835244-1-9-17OperatingProfit8981198124996813821767-7-13-29Netprofit834118912998091175153531-15EPSRMB06909810806809812720-16GrossMargin191198200194204211-03ppt-06ppt-11pptOperatingMargin445757486271-04ppt-04ppt-14pptNetMargin41576040526201ppt04ppt-02pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure4PLforecastRMBmnFY211Q222Q223Q224Q22EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue176674896451653735579203642090921744YoY31141462651591532740Costofsales133023939369043514498164771676317385Grossprofit436595782610221081388641464358GPM247195183190194191198200YoY33-284-2346097-1106751SGA1156331329397396145412961370ofrev-65-68-73-74-71-71-62-63RD1726387341377430153416521740ofrev-98-79-75-70-77-75-79-80Operatingprofit148323918521825589811981249OPM8449414146445757YoY98-626-459-88-22-39433343IncomeTax12054898047269177193503295EffectiveTaxRate85216170277150150Netprofit131620514523425083411891299NPM7542324445415760YoY-126-614-628275181-36642593SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE38Mar2023ValuationMaintainHOLDwithnewTPHK1562OurnewTPofHK1562basedonSOTPtoreflectbusinessdiversificationwithdifferentgrowthprofilesandvisibilityOurTPisbasedonweighted-averagetargetPEmultipleof141xFY23EPEWeassign15x10xPEtoAACsacousticsMEMS13xPEtohapticsmechanicalRFand15xPEtoopticsin-linewithHK-listedpeersFigure5AACTechSOTPvaluationValueperValuationofFY23EFY23EEPSBusinesssegmentTargetPEshareRMBMethodologyProfitRMBAcoustics852PEtargetmultiple15x58057MEMS039PEtargetmultiple10x4004EDPM426PEtargetmultiple13x33033Optics073PEtargetmultiple15x5005TPRMB139141x098TPHK156SourcesCompanydataCMBIGMFigure612MforwardPEbandFigure712MforwardPBbandxx65109558745635542532151051-yrForwardPEMeanMean1SDMean-1SD1-yrForwardPBMeanMean1SDMean-1SDSourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE48Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue178841714017667203642090921744Costofgoodssold127771291313302164771676317385Grossprofit510742274365388641464358Sellingexpense275285333443397413Adminexpense6436728241010899957RDexpense171719201726153416521740Operatingprofit24721350148389811981249Otherincome247502345470376435Otherexpense000000GainlossonfinancialassetsatFVTPL1900000Investmentgainloss000000ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV001111NetInterestincomeexpense248353415390390390Foreignexchangegainloss631481555Otherincomeexpense000000Others000000Pre-taxprofit25521648141397211781287Incometax330147120269177193Aftertaxprofit22221501129370310011094Minorityinterest0623132187205Netprofit22221507131683411891299BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets148081685017955184121895222458Cashequivalents5512754060518913630512139Accountreceivables557651766013822866408792Inventories366439955695107658131332STbankdeposits11922222FinancialassetsatFVTPL000000Othercurrentassets4446193193193193Non-currentassets194002206224067239112289021134PPE169111859219987198311881017054Deferredincometax095211211211211InvestmentinJVsassos004444Intangibles434373384384384384Goodwill164164220220220220FinancialassetsatFVTPL0050505050Othernon-currentassets189128373210321032103210Totalassets342073891142022423234184243592Currentliabilities7711938096689683879510100Short-termborrowings187633492902290229022902Accountpayables547452056148613852456542Taxpayable178167165190195203Othercurrentliabilities75151188188188188Leaseliabilities97494242242242242Contractliabilities101522222222Non-currentliabilities713677119852985298529852Long-termborrowings38502543330330330330Bondpayables268525126573657365736573Obligationsunderfinanceleases310317452452452452Othernon-currentliabilities29023392497249724972497Totalliabilities148461709019520195351864819952Sharecapital989898989898Otherreserves192532106121713221302272423373Totalshareholdersequity193612182122502227882319423639Minorityinterest10662691560372168Totalequityandliabilities342073891142022423234184243592PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE58Mar2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation25521648141397211781287Depreciationamortization247627013834414744130Taxpaid370262217244172185Changeinworkingcapital751789528239440413626Others652952306771244802Netcashfromoperations384335932196734615029530InvestingCapitalexpenditure154420881176367831262657Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments00860000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term000000investmentsOthers185011742211000Netcashfrominvesting339532624246367831262657FinancingDividendpaid1531107403417594650Netborrowings2633562653000Sharerepurchases1531107403417594650Others35802439407227204260Netcashfromfinancing25525826138079841039NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear405948147540605189136305Exchangedifference5118752000Cashattheendoftheyear4814754060518913630512139GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue1442311532740Grossprofit243172331106751Operatingprofit4204549839433343Netprofit41532212636642593PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin286247247191198200Operatingmargin1387984445757ReturnonequityROE1167359375255GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecCurrentratiox191819192222Receivableturnoverdays878878878900900900Inventoryturnoverdays886886886750750750Payableturnoverdays847847847700700700VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE227342324231162149PEdiluted227342324231162149PB000000000000Divyield303314611544216030783365SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE68Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7