研究报告全文：8Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaEconomyForeigntradeplungeshowsnoreliefofglobalrecessionriskChinasexportscontinuedtodropasoverseasdemandforgoodsshrunkwiththeBingnanYEPhDdisinflationtrendTherecentbetter-than-expectedperformanceinglobal85269895170economywasmainlysupportedbytheservicesectorasitsboostonglobaltradeyebingnancmbicomhkwaslimitedInfactglobalhousingmarkethomeeconomydroppedsharplydueKevinZhangtohighbaseandhighratesInadditiontheRussia-UkrainewarandSino-US85253364682conflictcontinuedtopressureonChinasexportswithglobalsupplychainkevinzhangcmbicomhkrestructuringChinasimportssurpriseduswithfurtherdeteriorationascommoditypricesplungedservicesectordominatedintheearlystageofYoYrecoveryandmoreproductssawthehome-madesubstitutionWeexpectChinas8070exportsofgoodstodrop35in2023afterrising71in2022andtheimports60ofgoodsareprojectedtorise05aftergrowing1TheweaknessofChinas5040foreigntradeindicatesnoreliefofglobalrecessionriskasthecountryhasto3020maintaineasingcreditpolicytoboostdomesticdemand1001020Chinaexportscontinuedtoshrinkamidoverseasdemandslowdown30201820192020202120222023disinflationtrendsupplychainrestructuringChinaexportsofgoodsExportsofgoodsImportsofgoodsdroppedby68YoYin2M23afterdropping99YoYinDecemberlastyearSourceWindCMBIGMbetterthanmarketconsensusExportsofmostproductscontinuedtodeclinewhileafewitemslikemotorvehiclesandsteelproductsachievedstrongTradesurplusUSbngrowthTheshrinkageofChinaexportswasmainlyduetotworeasonsFor120onereasonoverseasdemandofgoodshascontinuedtoshrinkwithsharp100declinesinbothproducerpricesandimportpricesTherecentbetter-than-80expectedperformanceinglobaleconomywasmainlysupportedbytheservice60sectorasitsboosttoglobaltradeactivitymayhavebeenlimitedChinas40exportsofdurablesandcapitalgoodsplungedForanotherreasonglobal20supplychainhascontinuedtoadjustamidSino-UStensionsTheUShas0maintainedhightariffsforChinesegoodsandputmoreChinesecompaniesJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDeconitssanctionlistMultinationalcompanieshavecontinuedtorestructuretheir2023Y2022Y2021YsupplychainwiththeChina1orChinaXstrategyChinastradewithSourceWindCMBIGMUSandEUfurtherweakenedwhileitseconomictieswiththeASEANstrengthenedIn2M23ChinaexportstoUSandEUdroppedby218and122YoYcomparedtotheincreaseof12and86in2022MeanwhileChinasexportstoitslargesttradepartnertheASEANrose9YoYaftergrowing177YoYByenterprisetheexportsofforeignenterprisesinChinaremainedworsethanthoseofSOEsandprivateenterprisesin2M23asthistrendstartedfrom2H21AtthesametimeChinasmarketsharesinbothUSandEUimportscontinuedtodeclineChinaimportsfurtherdeclinedamidcommoditydeflationlaggedrecoveryindurablecapexdemandandthehome-madesubstitutionChinaimportsofgoodsdropped102YoYin2M23afterdeclining75YoYlastDecemberbelowmarketexpectationsChinasreopeninghasfirstlyimprovedsupplychainsbyboostingimportsvolumeofmostcommoditiesHoweverthecommoditydeflationdraggedChinaimportsasthepricesofmostproductsexperiencedsharpYoYdeclinesinthefirsttwomonthsIn2M23theimportsvolumeofmedicineandairplanesignificantlypickedupamidstrongorimprovingdemandCoalimportsvolumealsoreboundedsharplyasChinaimprovedtradetieswithAustraliatolowerenergycostAsservicesectordominatedintheearlystageofrecoverywemayneedsomePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk8Mar2023timetoseetheboosttoimportsofsomedurableandcapitalgoodsTheimportsofmachinetooldroppedby103YoYin2M23asbusinesscapexremainedweakTheimportsofintegratedcircuitsfurtherdropped265YoYin2M23afterdecreasing153YoYin2022asglobaldemandforelectronicsremainedweakandUScontinuedtodecoupleChinafromglobalsemiconductorsupplychainsMeanwhileDuetothehome-madesubstitutioneffecttheimportsofautosdroppedby304YoYin2M23Weexpectexportstodrop35andimportstorise05in2023ChinasexportsarelikelytoseesignificantYoYdeclinesin1H23asoverseasdemandforgoodsfurtherslowswiththedisinflationtrendandtheSino-UStensionslingersTheprojectedgrowthratesoftheexportsforthefourquartersare-9-5-2and2respectivelyWeexpectChinaimportstoslightlyrise05in2023aftergrowing1in2022TheeconomyreopeningandresumptionshouldhelpboostimportsvolumeHowevertherecoverymodelwithmorecontributionfromservicesectorandcommoditydeflationmayrestraintheupsideroomforChinaimportsTheweaknessinforeigntradeactivityincreasesChinaslikelihoodtomaintaineasingcreditpolicytoboostdomesticdemandTheweaknessinforeigntradewillrestrainChinaseconomicrecoveryasthecountryhastorelyonitsdomesticdemandtoboostthegrowthChinasconservativeGDPgrowthtargethasloweredmarketexpectationsaboutitspolicyroomaheadHoweverweexpectthecountrymayhavetofurthereaseitspolicyin2H23asthepaceofdomesticrecoveryislikelytoslowandoverseasrecessionriskwouldincreaseMeanwhileChinahastomaintaineasingcreditsupplytorelievepropertystresslowerlocalgovernmentcontingentdebtriskandboostprivatebusinessconfidencePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE28Mar2023Figure1GrowthofexportandimportvolumeFigure2GrowthofexportandimportpricesSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure3ChinaexportstomainpartnersFigure4ExportsgrowthinmajoreconomiesYoY2YCAGRfor2021YTD302010010203020162017201820192020202120222023USEUJapanASEANAfricaSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure5ConsumerconfidenceinmajoreconomiesFigure6Consumptiongrowthinmajoreconomiesindex1009080706050201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022USJapanEUSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE38Mar2023Figure710YT-bondratesinmajoreconomiesFigure8Bankscreditgrowthinmajoreconomies654321012005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023USJapanEurozoneSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure9GlobalsupplychainpressureFigure10GrowthofUSPPIimportpriceindexindex6000858050007540007065300060200055501000450402018201120122013201420152016201720192020202120222023BDILHSSupplierdeliveryinUSmanufacturingLHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure11ChinaexportsbyenterpriseFigure12ChinasmarketsharesinpartnersimportsSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE48Mar2023Figure13MixofChinasexportsbydestinationFigure14ChinastradesurpluswithmainpartnersSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMNoteDatafor2M23issimplyannualizedFigure15GrowthofUSimportsbysourceFigure16GrowthofEUimportsbysourceSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure17GrowthofChinaexportsbyproductYoY23YCAGR20192020202120222M2320211Q221H222022TextileYarnFabricsRelatedProducts0929256202241041139676TravelGoodsHandbagsSimilarArticles052423512823312758095GarmentAccessories40642403214777808262ShoesBoots0021235320411633828887Toy2427537756101217191215161FurniturePartsThereof0811826453172189126118102LampsLightingFixturesSimilarProducts9614331261170225157142121PlasticProducts1121962919397243197202191SteelProducts113154802187275235114198219UnwroughtAluminum74141487337222130193222195IntegratedCircuits20014832003258231211196150Shipping631532620425034252621MotorVehicles41361192747652454505430546AutoPartsAccessories3662337744012010297104GeneralMachinery752646137166158138130AutomaticDataProcessingEquipment116210753211621219677SourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE58Mar2023Figure18GrowthofChinaimportvolumepricebyproductImportsvolumeImportspriceYoY20192020202120222M2320192020202120222M23Grain36280181107705154263237131Soybean0013338561617213407212105Ironore059539157332972554286118Copperore116107680117482144685152Coal63156692708111148659297184Crudeoil95735409138332252442741Natualgas695319999941523839839502Steelproducts6564429525944281275579231185Copperproducts603411726293780945525125Plasticsinprimaryform1241011641002215910639420177Rubber621369487108457226417210Integratedcircuits6622116915326582615713554Machinetool00188071441030030825815110Auto66114066530436811475765Airplane486354294273412125300123135132Medcine06312882574116525710Beautycosmetics37521181642481701856SourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE68Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7