研究报告全文：MN8Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateTripcomTCOMUSPent-updemandboostsrevenuerecoveryTargetPriceUS4460TripcomGroupTCOMannounced4Q22resultson7MarnetrevenuewasPreviousTPUS4000RMB50bnup7YoY34aheadofourBloombergconsensusestimatesandUpDownside155was60ofthe4Q19levelNon-GAAPnetincomewasRMB498mnbetterthanCurrentPriceUS3861ourforecastconsensusestimateoflossatRMB140152mnthankstobetter-than-expectedcostsavingRecoveryinbothdomesticandoutboundtravelinChinaInternet1Q23wasbetterthanourexpectationaidedbythereleaseofpent-updemandSaiyiHECFAespeciallyforbusinesstravelThecostsavingmeasuresadoptedbyTCOMamid85239161739industryheadwindcouldaidrapidmarginrecoverywhenrevenuegenerationhesaiyicmbicomhknormalizesinourviewToaccountforbetter-than-expectedrevenueandearningsrecoveryweliftedourDCF-basedtargetpriceby12toUS446perYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkADStranslatinginto37x23x20232024EPEnon-GAAPMaintainBUYRecoveryinbothoutboundtravelandinternationaltravelbusinessisWentaoLUbetterthanexpectationAlthoughtheindustrylevelinternationalflightluwentaocmbicomhkcapacityhasonlyrecoveredto15-20ofpre-pandemiclevelmanagementStockDatahighlightedrecentoutboundtravelbookingsonTCOMsplatformhasMktCapUSmn253704recoveredmorethan40ofpre-pandemicleveldespitecapacitylimitationAvg3mthstoUSmn364whichmanagementattributedtoTCOMsdeepertieswithsuppliersIn52wHighLowUS40061675additionmanagementnotedthatoverallairticketrevenuefromTCOMsTotalIssuedSharesmn6571SourceFactSetglobalplatformhasfullyrecoveredcomparedtopre-pandemiclevelandhotelbookingsonglobalplatformhashitarecordhighin4Q22ShareholdingStructureBaiduEntities108Domestichotelandairbookingshavesurpassed2019levelin1Q23InMorganStanley584Q22TCOMsrevenuefromtransportation-ticketingTTserviceswasSourceHKExRMB22bnup45YoYandreached64ofthe4Q19levelRevenuefromSharePerformanceaccommodationreservationARbusinesswasRMB17bndown12YoYAbsoluteRelativeandwas57ofthe4Q19levelManagementnotedarapidrecoverytrend1-mth6886posttherelaxationofpandemicpreventionpolicyandhighlightedthat3-mth16699quarter-to-datedomestichotelandairbookingvolumein1Q23has6-mth550531surpassedthe2019levelDrivenbythereleaseofpent-updemandSourceFactSetimprovementofmacroandsteadydevelopmentofinternationalbusinesswe12-mthPricePerformanceforecastTCOMtorecordRMB30bnARrevenuein1Q23flatcomparedto1Q19levelandachieveRMB37bninTTrevenueup11comparedto1Q19levelWeliftedTCOMs2023Etotalrevenueforecastby11toRMB340bnindicatingaYoYgrowthof69andwas95of2019levelCostcontrolmeasurescouldaidrapidmarginrecoverywhenrevenuerecoversTCOMsnon-GAAPOPMfor4Q22was1445ppbetterthanourforecastmainlyonbetter-than-expectedcostsavingTCOMhasadoptedSourceFactSetstringentcostreductionandsavingmeasuresamidindustryheadwindwhichshouldaidstrongmarginexpansionwhenrevenuegenerationnormalizesRecoveryinrevenuegenerationfromrelativehigh-marginoutboundtravelbusinesscouldaidfurthermarginrecoveryWeforecastnon-GAAPOPMtoexpandto190in1Q23E1Q191681Q22-33andestimateittorecoverto192in2023E2019189202264EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn2002920055339524289447259YoYgrowth9301693263102NetprofitRMBmn550014030387017034388124AdjustednetprofitRMBmn13560129405465989646108918AdjNPConsensusRMBmn496058291593218EPSAdjustedRMB21419783213641658PExna799448246197SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk8Mar2023Figure1TCOMquarterlyfinancialresultsCMBIRMBbn3Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22DiffestimatesTotalrevenue555041595347414069504927---YoYgrowth479404-132865-22-57003192907445Accommodationreservation252216252219151429171714------YoYgrowth398244368958115145-82447324120-132Transportationticketing191715211815171826222143----YoYgrowth488510-371797-46108104147444454394-Packagedtour030302040402010104020285-----YoYgrowth801673-6771823202324266668-13-7312-Corporatetravel030303040304020204030319-----YoYgrowth1581771000140719919511946295245-231Others050506060607070606070761--YoYgrowth31338011931827954883-8113-09-65Grossprofit444131474136303056383649Operatingprofit0800-0803-02-07-04-0209-02-05NANon-GAAPnetprofit1411-0207050300-021005-01NA16GPM811816748792771761740756815761745ppt-56OPM145-03-19255-46150-87-42124-48-104ppt128AdjustedNPM256214-501249866-09-5115099-29pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesRevisionofforecastandvaluationKeychangesinourforecastaresetoutbelowandweintroducedour2025Eforecast1Welifted20232024Erevenueforecastby1111drivenbybetter-than-expectedrecoveryinbothdomesticbusinessandoutboundtravelbusinessaidedbytherelaxationofpandemicpreventionpolicyreleaseofpent-updemandandrecoveryinmacroenvironment2Weliftedour20232024Enon-GAAPnetprofitby1012drivenbytheliftinrevenueforecastinadditionTCOMsstringentcostreductionandsavingmeasuresamidindustryheadwindshouldaidrobustmarginexpansionwhenrevenuegenerationnormalizeinourviewPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE28Mar2023Figure2TCOMforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbn2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025ERevenue340429473307388106107GrossProfit269340375239307125108OperatingProfit49801003265527239Non-GAAPnet5590109508097116profitGrossMargin79279379577979213ppt01pptOperatingMargin14518721210516740ppt20pptNon-GAAPnet161209230162207-01ppt02pptmarginSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIConsensusDiffRMBbn2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025ERevenue3404294733013924501279450GrossProfit26934037523530835414410459Non-GAAPnet559010950839310281168profitGrossMargin79279379578078678712ppt07ppt07pptNon-GAAPnet161209230165211207-04ppt-02ppt23pptmarginSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesDCFbasedtargetpriceofUS446OurDCF-basedtargetpricewasliftedtoUS446WACCof105andterminalgrowthof20bothunchangedOurtargetpricetranslatesinto371x2023EPEand226x2024EPEnon-GAAPOurpreviousDCF-basedtargetpriceofUS400translatesinto352x2023EPEnon-GAAPTCOMiscurrentlytradingat3823x20232024EPEnon-GAAPbasedonBloombergconsensusestimatehigherthanindustryaverageofboth18xFig5WethinkTCOMsvaluationpremiumcouldbejustifiedbyitsstrongearningsrecoverypostpandemicWeforecastTCOMtoachieve2022-2024Enon-GAAPnetprofitCAGRof163TCOMisoneofthekeybeneficiariesofconsumptionrecoveryinpostpandemicerainourviewandfuturecatalystsonstockpricecouldcomefrom1better-than-expectedrecoveryofoutboundtravelthataccountsforc25ofTCOMspre-COVIDrevenuegeneration2stronger-than-expecteddomesticlong-haultravelrecoveryaidedbyreleaseofpent-updemandand3better-than-expectedmarginexpansionaidedbytherecoveryinrevenuegenerationFigure4TCOMDCFvaluationWACCof105terminalgrowthof20RMBbn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032ETotalrevenue340429473514553589621651677700NPVofFCF965867Discountedterminalvalue813899Totalequityvaluation19932142Noofsharesdilutedmn657657ValuationpershareUSD446SourceCMBIGMestimatesNote1ourUSDRMBexchangerateassumptionis169252ourtargetpriceisbasedonweightedaverageof9-monthtargetpricein2023Eand3-monthtargetpricein2024EPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE38Mar2023Figure5IndustryvaluationcompsCompanynameTickerPricePExPSxLocal2023E2024E2023E2024EPlatformAlibabaGroupBABAUS8961031051715Tencent700HK35702161844943BaiduBIDUUS14951561352624Meituan3690HK1374NA2682722JDcomJDUS4791731370404Average1621662522E-commerceandlocallifeservicesAlibabaGroupBABAUS8961031051715JDcomJDUS4791731370404PinduoduoPDDUS9382201785041Meituan3690HK1374NA2682722VIPShopVIPSUS14593880505Average1471552117OnlinegamesTencent700HK35702161844943NetEaseNTESUS8651891663834Kingsoft3888HK273NA2963631XDInc2400HK244NA2992319Average2022363632SocialentertainmentKuaishou1024HK556NA2352017BilibiliBILIUS216NANA2420TMETMEUS801841623229CloudVillage9899HK890NA2391614ChinaLiterature772HK3632081793733Average1962042623OnlineadsBaiduBIDUUS14951561352624WeiboWBUS18382722221Average1191042422OTATripcomGroupTCOMUS3863772305744TCEL780HK1682541963730Average3162134737OnlinehealthcareAliHealth241HK58NANA2218JDHealth6618HK590NANA2822PinganHealthcare1833HK188NANA2421AverageNANA2520Totalaverage1811822824SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE48Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue183272002920055339524289447259Costofgoodssold403145984513702288309682Others11616273028Grossprofit142851542515526269023403437548Operatingexpenses157081683615438219832601927535SGAexpense804178447097120771427415208RDexpense76678992834199061174512327Operatingprofit14231411884919801610013Interestincome218721322046123318111959Interestexpense171615651514140912661226Otherincomeexpense27337320155000Pre-taxprofit122547126354793856010745Incometax35527068295917122149Others1689965860150180Minorityinterest629536363636Netprofit32075501403387070348812Adjustednetprofit913135612945466896510892BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets5801166108614357940799910115729Cashequivalents180961981817083331514862862065Restrictedcash131913781404237730033308Accountreceivables411946495486679085799452Prepayment7855903211917115441415515359Othercurrentassets266223123125545255452554525545Non-currentassets129238125751130256127873127952128397PPE578055345204565559406251InvestmentinJVsassos479434496150177475334718447259Intangibles132561296012825118561178511713Goodwill593535935359337593375933759337Othernon-currentassets290629432713349137073838Totalassets187249191859191691207280227862244127Currentliabilities583696621857035715398178386486Short-termborrowings336653986628470284702847028470Accountpayables450660197569101831245013265Taxpayable121710650191725683224Othercurrentliabilities185031886820996304073767740946Accruedexpenses4784000562618581Non-currentliabilities273131518521637168981810518611Long-termborrowings227181109317381110931109311093Obligationsunderfinanceleases618400534534534534Othernon-currentliabilities397736923722527164786984Totalliabilities8568281403786728843699889105097Sharecapital666666Capitalsurplus8396093829950679701399143101422Retainedearnings194701882320191240263102639803Otherreserves308229812981298129812981Totalshareholdersequity100354109677112283118064127194138251Minorityinterest1213779736779779779Totalequityandliabilities187249191859191691207280227862244127PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE58Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation291437520494793871010925Depreciationamortization1217102183691710101108Changeinworkingcapital693417715091357358452625Others48081652446577158130Netcashfromoperations382324751822198601572314529InvestingCapitalexpenditure53257057196612211345Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments286135850000Others42870000Netcashfrominvesting3821414857196612211345FinancingNetborrowings18209561511396000Proceedsfromshareissues079840000Others121849680743518531600559Netcashfromfinancing60253919396118531600559NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear217471941521196184873552851631Exchangedifference7134650000Others161922462709170411610313743Cashattheendoftheyear194152119618487355285163165373GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue4879301693263102Grossprofit4958007733265103Operatingprofitnanana54899629249Netprofitnanana1758818253Adjnetprofitnana463224640215PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin779770774792793795Operatingmargin787004145187212Adjnetprofitmargin506865161209230ReturnonequityROE310513345766GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox101011111213VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEnana799448246197PB121210151413PCFPSna73490893121133SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE68Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7