研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary8Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketsweredrivenbyincreasedUSTrateandshoweddefensivethismorningAsianIGoverallwidened1-2bpstillnoonandbuyersfocusedonGlennKoCFA高志和short-endbondsRecentissuedHSBCCTIHAT1down05-075ptFor85236576235LGFVwesawsellingflowsonnameswithlowerthan6yieldglennkocmbicomhkChinaEconomyForeigntradeplungeshowsnoreliefofglobalrecessionriskCMBIexpectsChinasexportsofgoodstodrop35andtheimportsofgoodsareprojectedtorise05in2023SeebelowforCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩commentsfromoureconomicresearch85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkYLLGSPMediareportedthatYanlordismullinga2yrUSDbondissuanceandaimingatlowerthan10priceYLLGSPswereunchangedthismorningJerryWang王世超85237618919Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点jerrywangcmbicomhkYesterdayAsiaIGhadaquietsessionwithspreadsunchangedto2bpstighterKoreaspacewasunchangedto3bpstighterwithbanknamesoutperformedEIBKORKDB5ytightened1-2bpswhile10ypaperswereunchangedOnnewissuefrontnewBCLMHK5524wereunderbetterbuyingNewCBAAU26sthatpricedatT370closed4bpstighterataroundT66ChinaSOEsnotablyunderperformedHAOHUASINOCHcurveswidened5-10bpsonrefreshedsanctionconcernsoverChemChinasSyngentaTMTsinitiallyedged1-3bpstighterinthemorningbutretracedearlygainspostlunchWesawsellersonBABAcurveandTENCNTbenchmarkpapersTENCNT29s30sweremarked2-3bpswideratT137T154BBBnamesMEITUAXIAOMIwereunchangedto3bpstighterFinancialsremainedstrongBankT2swerebetterbidbyChineseaccountsonBCHINACINDBKCCBICBCASBCHINA32sandCCB29smoved3-6bpstightertoT75andT66respectivelyChinaHYpropertyspacewasstableCHINSC24swereuparound35ptsSINOCEsCSCHCNswereunchangedto05pthigherHoweverCIFIHGsGRNLGRsweretraded05-15ptslowerAwayfrompropertiesEHICAR24s26sweremarked05-125ptshigherTSINGHswerebidup1-15ptsatlow-50sInMacaugamingspaceSANLTDsSTCITYswereupanother05-1ptaftermoving05-2ptshigheronMondayInIndianspaceVEDLNsnotablygained15-2ptsRenewablessuchasRPVINsGRNKENswereup05-1ptIndonesiannamesLMRTSPsLPKRIJswereunchangedElsewhereMEDCIJswereup05-15ptsTheLGFVPERPSAsiaAT1spaceshadanactivedayandclosedonafirmtoneFlowsinhouseweremoreactiveinLGFVsassentimentcontinuedtoimproveonhigh-betanamesWetradedtwowayacrossbetaLGFVnameswithhigh-yieldingnamesfromweakerregionsbetterdemandedwhilstthe6issueswerebetter-offeredagainstthebackdropofhigheranticipatedfundingcostsShandongnamesQDHTCOSHUGRPwerestableontwowayPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk18Mar2023flowswhilstHKIQCLweremarked05ptlowerElsewhereAT1sandPerpsgenerallyheldonwelldespiteintradaymovementsinratesMarketparticipantswouldrathersquareoffriskcovershortsaheadofPowellsspeechonTuesdaynightandabusydatacalendaraheadofFOMCInparticularnewHSBC8PerphadofferliquidityprettymuchdrainedthankstorelentlessPBbuyingandafterbeingliftedto1015instreetoffersquicklysurgedto10175102areaRestofclientinterestswerelargelyinfront-endcashmanagementpaperswheredemandremainedsolidForinstanceHAOHUACNBGPerp23callablepapersbarelydroppeddespitelongendweakeningonbackofrenewedUSsanctionfearLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeCHINSC73804092464935CHNAAR512030824915-18VEDLN89503112572018GRNLGR714012227438-15VEDLN137801212486718XINHUZ11060625804-10VEDLN61808092470918CSCHCN9100924843-09TSINGH61201312850714HKIQCL4100824953-06MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsdownamidweaksentimentyesterdaySP-153Dow-172andNasdaq-125retreatedduetoFedchairmanshawkishtestimonythatthefinalinterestratemaybehigherthanexpectationChinaisgoingtosetnewfinancialregulatorbasedonthebasisofCBIRCTheUStreasuryyieldsoverallroseyesterdaythe251030yieldsreached500431397388respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinaEconomyForeigntradeplungeshowsnoreliefofglobalrecessionriskChinasexportscontinuedtodropasoverseasdemandforgoodsshrunkwiththedisinflationtrendTherecentbetter-than-expectedperformanceinglobaleconomywasmainlysupportedbytheservicesectorasitsboostonglobaltradewaslimitedInfactglobalhousingmarkethomeeconomydroppedsharplyduetohighbaseandhighratesInadditiontheRussia-UkrainewarandSino-USconflictcontinuedtopressureonChinasexportswithglobalsupplychainrestructuringChinasimportssurpriseduswithfurtherdeteriorationascommoditypricesplungedservicesectordominatedintheearlystageofrecoveryandmoreproductssawthehome-madesubstitutionWeexpectChinasexportsofgoodstodrop35in2023afterrising71in2022andtheimportsofgoodsareprojectedtorise05aftergrowing1TheweaknessofChinasforeigntradeindicatesnoreliefofglobalrecessionriskasthecountryhastomaintaineasingcreditpolicytoboostdomesticdemandChinaexportscontinuedtoshrinkamidoverseasdemandslowdowndisinflationtrendsupplychainrestructuringChinaexportsofgoodsdroppedby68YoYin2M23afterdropping99YoYinDecemberlastyearbetterthanmarketconsensusExportsofmostproductscontinuedtodeclinewhileafewitemslikemotorvehiclesandsteelproductsachievedstronggrowthTheshrinkageofChinaexportswasmainlyduetotworeasonsForonereasonoverseasdemandofgoodshascontinuedtoshrinkwithsharpdeclinesinbothproducerpricesandimportpricesTherecentbetter-than-expectedperformanceinglobaleconomywasmainlysupportedbytheservicesectorasitsboosttoglobaltradeactivitymayhavebeenlimitedChinasexportsofdurablesandcapitalgoodsplungedForanotherreasonglobalsupplychainhascontinuedtoadjustamidSino-UStensionsTheUShasmaintainedhightariffsforChinesegoodsandputmoreChinesecompaniesonitssanctionlistMultinationalcompanieshavecontinuedtorestructuretheirsupplychainwiththeChina1orChinaXstrategyChinastradewithUSandEUfurtherweakenedwhileitseconomictieswiththeASEANstrengthenedIn2M23ChinaexportstoUSandEUdroppedby218and122YoYcomparedtotheincreaseof12and28Mar202386in2022MeanwhileChinasexportstoitslargesttradepartnertheASEANrose9YoYaftergrowing177YoYByenterprisetheexportsofforeignenterprisesinChinaremainedworsethanthoseofSOEsandprivateenterprisesin2M23asthistrendstartedfrom2H21AtthesametimeChinasmarketsharesinbothUSandEUimportscontinuedtodeclineChinaimportsfurtherdeclinedamidcommoditydeflationlaggedrecoveryindurablecapexdemandandthehome-madesubstitutionChinaimportsofgoodsdropped102YoYin2M23afterdeclining75YoYlastDecemberbelowmarketexpectationsChinasreopeninghasfirstlyimprovedsupplychainsbyboostingimportsvolumeofmostcommoditiesHoweverthecommoditydeflationdraggedChinaimportsasthepricesofmostproductsexperiencedsharpYoYdeclinesinthefirsttwomonthsIn2M23theimportsvolumeofmedicineandairplanesignificantlypickedupamidstrongorimprovingdemandCoalimportsvolumealsoreboundedsharplyasChinaimprovedtradetieswithAustraliatolowerenergycostAsservicesectordominatedintheearlystageofrecoverywemayneedsometimetoseetheboosttoimportsofsomedurableandcapitalgoodsTheimportsofmachinetooldroppedby103YoYin2M23asbusinesscapexremainedweakTheimportsofintegratedcircuitsfurtherdropped265YoYin2M23afterdecreasing153YoYin2022asglobaldemandforelectronicsremainedweakandUScontinuedtodecoupleChinafromglobalsemiconductorsupplychainsMeanwhileDuetothehome-madesubstitutioneffecttheimportsofautosdroppedby304YoYin2M23Weexpectexportstodrop35andimportstorise05in2023ChinasexportsarelikelytoseesignificantYoYdeclinesin1H23asoverseasdemandforgoodsfurtherslowswiththedisinflationtrendandtheSino-UStensionslingersTheprojectedgrowthratesoftheexportsforthefourquartersare-9-5-2and2respectivelyWeexpectChinaimportstoslightlyrise05in2023aftergrowing1in2022TheeconomyreopeningandresumptionshouldhelpboostimportsvolumeHowevertherecoverymodelwithmorecontributionfromservicesectorandcommoditydeflationmayrestraintheupsideroomforChinaimportsTheweaknessinforeigntradeactivityincreasesChinaslikelihoodtomaintaineasingcreditpolicytoboostdomesticdemandTheweaknessinforeigntradewillrestrainChinaseconomicrecoveryasthecountryhastorelyonitsdomesticdemandtoboostthegrowthChinasconservativeGDPgrowthtargethasloweredmarketexpectationsaboutitspolicyroomaheadHoweverweexpectthecountrymayhavetofurthereaseitspolicyin2H23asthepaceofdomesticrecoveryislikelytoslowandoverseasrecessionriskwouldincreaseMeanwhileChinahastomaintaineasingcreditsupplytorelievepropertystresslowerlocalgovernmentcontingentdebtriskandboostprivatebusinessconfidenceClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFJinjiangRoadandBridge158364d668668---ConstructionDevelopmentOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFCDBLeasingInternationalUSD-1yr570A1AA38Mar2023NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere94creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB74bnAsforMonth-to-date437creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB355bnraisedrepresentinga19yoydecreaseADEINAdaniGrouphasprepaidINR7374bncUSD902mnofshare-backeedfinancingAGILEMediareportedthatAgileGroupisgauginginvestorsinterestsinRMB1bncUSD143mntwo-yearbondFUTLANSeazenGroupacquiredHangzhoulandparcelforcRMB246bncUSD351mninFeb23HRINTHChinaHuarongAMCannouncedthatCITICGroupnowisthelargestshareholderofcompanywith2646stakeJIAYUAJiayuanfurtherextendsexpirationdeadlineofexchangeofferto8Mayforthe11thtimesThecompanyhasreceived6186supportinexchangeoffervsminimumacceptancelevelof90fortheexchangePUTSTAFitchaffirmedPutianState-OwnedAssetsInvestmentBBratingsandchangedoutlooktonegativeVEDLNMediareportedthatVedantaGroupislookingtoacquireanadditional6stakeinHindustanZincofwhichc65stakeownedbyVedantaWYNMACWynnMacaucompletesissueofUSD600mn450CBsdue2029YLLGSPMediareportedthatYanlordismullinga2yrUSDbondissuanceandaimingatlowerthan10priceCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownrisk48Mar2023TheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5