研究报告全文：9Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateXiabuXiabuCatering520HKBUYMaintainDraggedby4Q22butFY23EoutlookstillbrightTargetPriceHK1120PreviousTPHK1161WhatisnewXBXBissuedaprofitwarninginFY22EwithsalestodropUpDownside42723YoYandnetlossestobeataboutRMB330mnCurrentPriceHK785-XBXB520HKissuedaprofitwarningandexpectsitssalestofallby23ChinaCateringSectorYoYtoRMB47bnaround1419lowerthanBBGCMBIest-ItalsoforecastnetlossestobeataboutRMB320mn-340mninFY22EvsWalterWooRMB280mninFY21missingBBGCMBIestofaboutRMB190mn85237618776walterwoocmbicomhk-Managementbelievedthedragwasmainlyduetotemporarysuspensionofdine-inservicesandoperatingdeleverageduringthepandemicinFY22ERaphaelTse-GiventhenetlossesofRMB278mnin1H22theimpliednetlossesin2H22E85239000856improvedsignificantlytojustRMB42mn-62mnthankstoactiveimprovementraphaeltsecmbicomhkinstrategymanagementandcostscontrolOurviewThemisswasmainlyonsalesbutabrightFY23EisstillintactStockDatadrivenbybettercostscontrolandstrongreboundin2023YTDMktCapHKmn8526Avg3mthstoHKmn167421Thekeywasthemissinsalesmainlytheresultofreducedoperatingdays52wHighLowHK1026281storeswereclosedordine-inwassuspendedduringpandemicandwedoTotalIssuedSharesmn10862seethisasanone-offeventSourceBloomberg2thedragwasmostlyinNovDec2022inourviewwhereSSSGwereat-ShareholdingStructure27-55forXBXBand-20-55forCouCoumuchworsethan-17MrHoKuangChi418forXBXBand-14forCouCouaverageduringJul-Oct2022CICC135GoldmanSachs503thereformswereexcellentin2H22EbecauseSSSdropin2H22EwasatFreeFloat39722-23verysimilarto24-25in1H22butnetmarginhadsuccessfullySourceBloombergHKExnarrowedtojust-26in2H22Efrom-128in1H22ThiswashelpedbybetterGPmarginmorein-housemeatprocessingandrefinedcostscontrolSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeaftersimplificationofmanagementlayersanduseofprofitsharingscheme1-mth1071484thereboundwasstrongin2023YTDwhereSSSGalreadyimprovedto3-mth14044367forXBXBand3-10forCouCouinJanFeb2023backedby6-mth1295112912-mth892940betterseatandtableturnoverof23x22xforXBXBand22x22xforCouSourceBloombergCouvs16x18xand21x22xlastyearMoreoverHKsegmentalsohadameaningfulturnaroundHKwasonlockdownlastyearandShaoHotstable12-mthPricePerformanceturnoverwasstillclimbingfrom30xinJan2023to42xinFeb2023HK520HKHSIrebased11MaintainBUYbuttrimTPtoHK1120basedonSOTPvaluation21x1035xforXBXBCouCoualsoimplieda27xFY23EPE15discount98toindustryaverageWecutournetprofitforecastsin2023E24Eby177tofactorinsalesmissandslightlyhigheroperatingdeleverageinFY22E6WestillfindXBXBattractivegivena1648salesrestaurantlevelOP54CAGRinFY21-24EdrivenbyvariousreformsandrecoveryItistradingat319xFY23EPEand10xFY23EPSvspeersaverageof32xand21x2Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23EarningsSummarySourceBloombergYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn54556147473477339651AuditorDeloitteYoYgrowth95127230633248NetincomeRMBmn2-293-344403650RelatedReportsDilutedEPSRMB000202730317037105971XiabuXiabuCatering520HKBUYYoYgrowth993nana2170611MuchneededreformstobringConsensusEPSRMBnana017402170403XBXBnationwide17Feb2023PExnanana189117PBx3135463729Yield1109081934ROEna1689119277NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk9Mar2023EarningsrevisionFigure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue4734773396515814843110507-186-83-81Grossprofit296348646099363953036641-186-83-81EBIT-3247381093-8776411762713-33-71Netprofitatt-344403650-189408697824-13-68DilutedEPSRMB031703710597017403760641824-13-68Grossmargin6266296326266296320ppt0ppt0pptEBITmargin-6995113-1591112-54ppt05ppt01pptNetprofitattmargin-735267-324866-4ppt04ppt01pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue473477339651549674919360-1393231Grossprofit296348646099345345665708-1426569EBIT-3247381093-1233966721630862626Netprofitatt-344403650-188251427828605522DilutedEPSRMB031703710597017402170403824707481Grossmargin626629632628609610-02ppt2ppt22pptEBITmargin-6995113-225372-46ppt43ppt41pptNetprofitattmargin-735267-343446-38ppt19ppt22pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE29Mar2023ResultspreviewFigure3ResultsreviewhalfyearActual2H22Evs1H222H22ECMBIGCMBIGHalfyearlyFullyearlyRMBmn1H212H211H222H22EYoYYoYMMRevenue3047310021562577-29-173657-30COGS-1135-1207-811-959-1363Grossprofit1912189413451618-30-152294-29GPmargins628611624628627Otherincomegains594543-17-116Staffcosts-927-903-751-824-19-9-1116-26Staffcostssales-304-291-348-320-305Depofright-of-useassetsexpenses-302-284-273-220-10-23-280-21DepofROUassetsexpsales-99-92-126-85-77Otherrentalsexpenses-141-157-134-198-526-15726Otherrentalsexpsales-46-51-62-77-43DAofotherassets-229-238-201-257-128-2560DAofotherassetsexpsales-75-77-93-100-70Utilitiesexpenses-95-107-75-90-21-15-128-29Utilitiesexpsales-31-34-35-35-35Otheropex-207-235-172-136-17-42-235-42Otheropexsales-68-76-80-53-64OperatingprofitEBIT7115-218-107-406-832130-182OPmargins2305-101-4136Otheritems-75-131-38-19-32Netfinanceincome-49-43-44-26-41-37Netfinanceincomesales-16-14-21-10-11Profitafterfinancingcosts-54-160-300-15157Associatedcoms00000Jointlycontrolledcoms00000Pre-taxprofit-54-160-300-151457-557-364Tax7-76258836146Taxsales02-25123410Effectivetaxrate-129478-83-581626Minorityinterests37146-23Netprofitatt-50-243-277-68454-7288-177NPmargins-16-78-128-2624SourceBloombergCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE39Mar2023Figure4ResultsreviewfullyearFY22EFY22EActualvsHalfyearlyFullyearlyRMBmnFY21FY22EFY23EFY21YoYYoYCMBIGMCMBIGMRevenue614747347733-23635814-19COGS-1537-1471-2264-2174Grossprofit380629634864-22643639-19GPmargins619626629626Otherincomegains104426351-17Staffcosts-1830-1575-1993-1427-1867-16Staffcostssales-298-333-258-321Depofright-of-useassetsexpenses-586-493-588-1619-553-11DepofROUassetsexpsales-95-104-76-95Otherrentalsexpenses-298-331-3631110-29114Otherrentalsexpsales-48-70-47-50DAofotherassets-467-458-471-23-4570DAofotherassetsexpsales-76-97-61-79Utilitiesexpenses-202-166-271-1863-203-19Utilitiesexpsales-33-35-35-35Otheropex-442-308-503-3063-407-24Otheropexsales-72-65-65-70OperatingprofitEBIT86-324738-479-327-88270OPmargins14-6995-15Otheritems-207-57-93-70Netfinanceincome-93-70-103-85-18Netfinanceincomesales-15-15-13-15Profitafterfinancingcosts-214-451543-243Associatedcoms0000Jointlycontrolledcoms0000Pre-taxprofit-214-451543111-220-24386Tax-69113-1306186Taxsales-1124-1710Effectivetaxrate325-250-240-250Minorityinterests10697-19Netprofitatt-293-34440317-217-18982NPmargins-48-7352-33SourceBloombergCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE49Mar2023ValuationFigure5Peersvaluationtable3yrsYTD12mUpPBROEYieldPriceMktCapYearPExPEGperTPDown-xxCompanyTickerRatingLCLCsideHKmnEndFY1EFY2EFY2EFY2EFY1EFY1EFY1ELeadingGreaterChinaCateringXiabuxiabu520HKBUY1120785438526Dec-2122219046na0108116Jiumaojiu9922HKBUY19701882527374Dec-2111523627367280297Haidilao6862HKBUY21622315-7129038Dec-211581426130506080133Helens9869HKNRna1612na20422Dec-21na43976151na0488CafeDeCoral341HKBUY15121212257099Mar-2232117924170221187TamJai2217HKNRna231na3097Mar-22231122211931613122Yihai1579HKNRna2410na25230Dec-21322264491886409127YumChina9987HKBUY554604702018196714Dec-223082493665080971GourmetMaster2723TTNRna15300na7018Dec-215162632549921810Avg5263195110250933Med3222644157120844InternationalCateringYumBrandsYUMUSNRna127na279074Dec-22246215nana181909McDonaldsMCDUSNRna267na1533908Dec-22253229nana172314StarbucksSBUXUSNRna103na932322Oct-22305255nana162142RestBrandsQSRUSNRna63na222772Dec-2221018880426523527ChipotleMexicanCMGUSNRna1510na327342Dec-22361296153385150088DardenRestDRIUSNRna147na139991May-2218816983398223359DominosDPZUSNRna311na86429Jan-23239211nana2715103WendysWENUSNRna21na35864Jan-23220191152393144450ShakeShackSHAKUSNRna58na19202Dec-22nana5860nana397WingstopWINGUSNRna170na39869Dec-2288724nana5305233JollibeeFoodsJFCPMNRna230na36491Dec-2127627837180131000Avg31827694287252159Med24922281389182014H-sharesConsumerStaplesUPC220HKNRna704na30408Dec-212171682099405199Tingyi322HKNRna1304na73470Dec-2123417141174636754WantWant151HKNRna503na59775Mar-22138125312565195836ChinaMengniu2319HKNRna3500na138433Dec-2121318530na161411Vitasoy345HKNRna1616na17306Mar-2214306145115060106NongfuSpring9633HKNRna4450na500468Dec-21560469179411411109Budweiser1876HKNRna2330na308571Dec-223412253484101451Tsingtao168HKNRna8215na144630Dec-2129826040154351665CRBeer291HKNRna6020na195299Dec-21410329661564409104DaliFoods3799HKNRna333na45601Dec-2112110719185684265Avg39626551167832813Med26620537156401524SourceBloombergCompanydataCMBIGMestimatescoveredbyanotheranalystJosephWongPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE59Mar2023Figure6ValuationForwardblended12monthsPEbandSourceBloombergCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE69Mar2023AssumptionsFigure7CMBIGMassumptionsMajorassumptionsFY19AFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ESalesbybrandRMBmnXBXB467135023525242838494582CouCou119616892354201035734743Total586751915878443874229325SalesgrowthbybrandXBXB15-251-315919CouCou1204139-157833Total27-1213-246726NumberofrestaurantsXBXB1022106184188610161136CouCou102140183243315382Total112412011024112913311518NumberofrestaurantsgrowthXBXB154-2151512CouCou1133731333021Total207-15101814SeatturnoverxXBXB232316202223CouCou292525192426ASPRMBXBXB566263596061CouCou132137141136140143SalesperstoreRMBmnXBXB463342273840CouCou11812112983113124SalesperstoregrowthXBXB-2928-35397CouCou27-36379GPmargins610619626629632632Staffcosts-271-298-333-258-260-252Rentalandrelatedexpenses-40-48-70-47-45-45DepreciationofROUassets-109-95-104-76-72-71DAofotherassets-75-76-97-61-52-47Utilitiesexpenses-35-33-35-35-35-35Otherexpenses-70-72-65-65-63-63Effectivetaxrate-8333-25-24-23-23NPattmargin0-5-7578NPattgrowth-99nanana6142SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE79Mar2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue54556147473477339651Netincome219863247381093XiabuXiabu35023525242838494582DA409467458471506CouCou16892354201035734743Changeinworkingcapital2812376136Others265269296310326Incometaxpaid11358113130198Others7275421618104Costofgoodssold21302341177028693552Netcashfromoperating1270104944410271469Grossprofit33253806296348646099Othernetincome171104426380Capexinvestments405439426619676Associatedcompanies-----Operatingexpenses32773824333041895086Interestreceived24---Staffcosts14781830157519932510Others28104---Admin597586493588691Netcashfrominvesting374539426619676Propertyrentrelated220298331363434DA409467458471506Equityraised86---Otheroperatingexpenses573643473773946ChangeofDebts2056---EBIT219863247381093Dividendpaid8060---Others51567370103118Financecostsnet989370103118Netcashfromfinancing56668370103118JVassociates-----Exceptional542075793116Netchangeincash33017452305675Pre-taxprofit67214451543859Beginningcashbalance78510979218681247Exchangedifference183---Incometax5669113130198Cashattheendoftheyear109792186811731922LessMinorityinterests10106912Netprofit2293344403650BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ENon-currentassets35622955292330713241SalesmixFixedasset12971053102211691339XiabuXiabu642573513498475Intangibleassetsgoodwill22221CouCou310383425462491Prepaidleasepayments170170170170170Others4944624034InterestinassoJV049494949Others20941681168116811681Total10001000100010001000Currentassets22181996152022112893PLratiosCashandcashequivalents10979216488441215Grossmargin610619626629632Inventories691599488790978Operatingmargin40146995113Tradeandotherreceivables392395303495617Pre-taxmargin1235957089Prepayments00000Netmargin0048735267Others3882828282Effectivetaxrate829325250240230Currentliabilities19791768160220362310BalancesheetratiosBorrowings2076767676Currentratiox1111091113Tradepayables341251224363449Quickratiox0808060708Accrualsotherpayables704604465760948Cashratiox0605040405Taxpayables00000Inventoryturnoverdays120101101101101Others914838838838838Tradereceivablesdays2823232323Tradepayablesdays5946464646Non-currentliabilities14611172117211721172Totaldebttotalequityratio14543Borrowings00000NetdebtequityratioNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashDeferredincome00000ReturnsDeferredtax00000ROE01146207196248Others14611172117211721172ROA00597776106PershareMinorityInterest0061527EPSRMB000027017037071Totalnetassets23402011166420592624DPSRMB007006006013024Shareholdersequity23402011166420592624BVPSRMB216185153189241SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE89Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE9