研报下载就选股票报告网
您好,欢迎来到股票分析报告网!登录   忘记密码   注册
>> 招银国际-JD.com (JD US) Driving for long-term healthy growth-230310
上传日期:   2023/3/10 大小:   1249KB
格式:   pdf  共7页 来源:   招银国际
评级:   -- 作者:   --
下载权限:   无限制-登录即可下载
研究报告全文:MN10Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateJDcomJDUSDrivingforlong-termhealthygrowthTargetPriceUS7430JDcomJDannounced9March4Q22resultsrevenuewasRMB2954bnupPreviousTPUS78607YoYinlinewithbothourforecastandBloombergconsensusNon-GAAPUpDownside595netincomeofRMB77bnin4Q22wasaheadofourestimatesconsensusatCurrentPriceUS4657RMB5655bnandtranslatedintoanon-GAAPnetmarginof264Q211307ppaheadofourforecastFor2022totalrevenuegrew10YoYChinaInternet202128toRMB10tnandnon-GAAPnetmarginexpandedby09ppYoYSaiyiHECFAto27Weexpectcontrollableimpactonmarginsfromthenewlylaunched85239161739RMB10bnsubsidyprogramWelowerDCF-basedTPby55toUS743tohesaiyicmbicomhkaccountforlikelyslowerthanexpectedrevenuerecoveryduetoJDsproactivebusinessadjustmenttoenhanceuserexperienceandamilderthanexpectedYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkconsumptionrecoveryButmaintainBUYaslong-termmarginexpansionremainsintactandwebelievethemarkethasreflectednear-termimpactWentaoLUControllableimpactonmarginsfromRMB10bnsubsidyprogramJDluwentaocmbicomhkstoppedtodiscloseannualactivecustomernumbersin4Q22butStockDatamanagementstatedthatuserbaseexpansionandmerchantbasegrowthMktCapUSmn740696remainthefocusForRMB10bnsubsidyprogrammanagementexpectsAvg3mthstoUSmn564controllableimpactonmarginsgiventhatitwill1worktogetherwith52wHighLowUS66473666suppliersandmerchantsonprovidingattractivepricesand2closelyTotalIssuedSharesmn15905SourceFactSetmonitorROIoftheprogramtoensureefficientspendingKeymonitoringcriteriatomeasuretheeffectivenessofspendingcentreonnewuserShareholdingStructureacquisitionuserengagementimprovementandaveragerevenueperuserRichardQiangdongLiu138MaxSmartLimitied133ARPUexpansionTheinvestmentinRMB10bnsubsidyprogramisinlineSourceHKExwithJDslong-termdevelopmenttargetwhichcouldsupportplatformservicesrevenuegrowthandmarginexpansionoverthelongrunSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeProactiveadjustmentdelaysrecoverytrajectoryofrevenuegrowth1-mth-159-131JDsnetproductrevenuewasRMB2376bnin4Q22804oftotal3-mth-229-259revenueup1YoY3Q2264Q2122drivenby23YoYgrowth6-mth-223-200ongeneralmerchandiserevenueand05YoYriseinelectronicsandhomeSourceFactSetappliancerevenueIn4Q22netservicesrevenuewasRMB578bnup4012-mthPricePerformanceYoY3Q2242amongwhichmarketplaceandadvertisingrevenuegrew11YoYManagementismakingproactiveadjustmentamidthebackdropofgradualmacrorecoverysuchasenhancingplatformgovernanceandadjustingtrafficallocationmechanismtoensurebetteruserexperiencewhichmaydampenshort-termrevenuegrowthbutbenefitlong-termdevelopmentWeforecast1Q23JDretailrevenuetodecline47YoYandgrouplevelrevenuetobeflatYoYSourceFactSetLong-termmarginexpansionintactdespiteshort-terminvestmentGPMwas141for4Q22up06ppYoYdrivenbymarginexpansionacrosscategoriesJDRetailJDRsOPMexpandedby09ppYoYto30in4Q22Fulfilmentexpenseasapercentageofproductrevenueratiowas71in4Q224Q2170andmarketingexpensetorevenueratiowas414Q214804ppbetterthanourestimatesOverallnon-GAAPOPMwas25in4Q224Q211002ppaheadofourestimateTakingintoaccountfrombothRMB10bnsubsidyprogramandoperatingefficiencyimprovementofnewbusinessesweforecastJDtoachieve174non-GAAPNPMin1Q23E1Q22168and28for2023E202227PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhkEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn9515921046236117954212995681410632NetprofitRMBmn35596103800249346357459467354AdjustednetprofitRMBmn172071282200324186429843538940EPSAdjustedRMB10751774203827033388ConsensusEPSRMB193524233216PExna593203142109SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimates210Mar2023BusinessforecastsupdateandvaluationFigure1JDquarterlyfinancialresultsCMBIRMBbn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22EDiffestimatesNetproductrevenues175321971860234720442260197023762394-07YoYgrowth347233229221166295912Electronicsandhomeappliancerevenues104013681109140911841366119314171469-36YoYgrowth340198188217138-017605Generalmerchandiserevenues71382975193786089477795992537YoYgrowth359295294227207783523Netservicesrevenues279341327412352416465578583-08YoYgrowth731492433283263219422403Marketplaceandadvertisingrevenues14119016822217720719024624408YoYgrowth48235135127225293130106Logisticsandotherservicerevenues138151159190176208276332339-20YoYgrowth1092716531297275378730751Totalrevenue203225382187275923972676243529542977-08YoYgrowth3902622552301805411471Grossprofit291317311371334359362415427-26Operatingprofit170326-042438874850-41Non-GAAPnetprofit4046503640651007756374YoYgrowth335-217-92494164039891148563-03GPM143125142135140134149141143ppt-01OPM080112-011014361617pptAdjustedNPM20182313172441261907pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure2JDforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbn2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025ERevenue1179512996141061198013248-15-19GrossProfit17161944217417532014-21-35Non-GAAPnetprofit32442653632444100-33GrossMargin146150154146152-01ppt-02pptNon-GAAPnetmargin273338273300ppt00pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE310Mar2023Figure3CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCurrentConsensusDiffRMBbn2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025ERevenue-16-43-65117951299614106119861357915084GrossProfit-05-23-61171619442174172519902314Non-GAAPnetprofit043575324426536323412499GrossMargin14615015414414715302ppt03ppt01pptNon-GAAPnetmargin27333827303301ppt02ppt05pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesDCFbasedtargetpriceofUS743OurtargetpriceisUS743basedonDCFvaluationmethodologyWACCof118andterminalgrowthof20bothunchangedOurtargetpricetranslates252x2023EPEnon-GAAPOurpreviousDCF-basedtargetpriceofUS786translatesinto268x2023EPEnon-GAAPFigure4JDDCFvaluationWACCof118andterminalgrowthof20RMBbn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ETotalrevenue11801300141115061588165517071749NPVofFCF320Discountedterminalvalue401Totalequityvaluation818Noofsharesdilutedmn1591ValuationpershareUSD743SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE410Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue7458029515921046236117954212995681410632Costofgoodssold636694822525899163100790611051211193274Grossprofit109108129067147073171636194447217358Operatingexpenses96766124926127350137666148341157774Sellingexpense271563874337772406944353646551Adminexpense64091156211053121071299613683RDexpense161491633216893178661903419955Others470515828861632669987277677585Operatingprofit12343414119723339704610659583Othergainslosses325565901555000ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV429149182195000EBIT49191136715973339704610659583Interestincome162812132106384724692210Pre-taxprofit50819258113867301234363757374Incometax1482188741766025872711475Aftertaxprofit4933744679691240983491045899Minorityinterest75924697836836836Discontinuedoperations000000Others7168000Netprofit49405356010380249353574646735Adjustednetprofit168281720728220324194298453894BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets234801299672351074392854438162497971Cashequivalents860857076778861114323149109199349Restrictedcash443459266254625462546254Accountreceivables71121190020576184202029522029Inventories5893375601779498606094361101888Prepayment70771145615156151561515615156Othercurrentassets71161124023152278152640152987153296Non-currentassets187487196835244176246186258474269630PPE225973294455080570906937880534Right-of-useassets154841998722267222672226722267Deferredincometax53311111536153615361536InvestmentinJVsassos585016322257641576415764157641Intangibles646358379139913991399139Goodwill109041243323123231232312323123Othernon-currentassets730056130075390753907539075390Totalassets422288496507595250639040696635767601Currentliabilities174017221636266561277602290850306011Short-termborrowings0436812146121461214612146Accountpayables106818140484160607168445178636191087Taxpayable302925685926592659265926Othercurrentliabilities286213308337624408274388346594Leaseliabilities551466657688768876887688Accruedexpenses300353446942570425704257042570Non-currentliabilities266522808754566656026719969210Long-termborrowings12531938610224212602285724868Deferredincome161812971107110711071107Othernon-currentliabilities125031740443235432354323543235Totalliabilities200669249723321127343203358049375221Sharecapital000000Capitalsurplus153357208912213366210145217149224207Retainedearnings37418002493560681107416Otherreserves139001212590590590590Totalshareholdersequity204677210124213956235669278419332213Minorityinterest169433666160167601676016760167Totalequityandliabilities422288496507595250639040696635767601PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE510Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation50819258113867301234363757374Depreciationamortization606862324980530759066477Taxpaid1482188741766025872711475Changeinworkingcapital186781894824534472427255592Others315392158818614795078407895Netcashfromoperations425444230157819420795138165862InvestingCapitalexpenditure93401905716740176931819417633Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments788071819160000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term353791269340000investmentsOthers504220937286000Netcashfrominvesting578117424854026176931819417633FinancingNetborrowings4784297586161103615982011Proceedsfromshareissues66288224780000Others007436000Netcashfromfinancing710721950311801103615982011NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear39912905197669385156120577155363Exchangedifference519813823490000Cashattheendoftheyear905197669385156120577155363205603GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue2932769912710285Grossprofit292183140167133118Operatingprofit3726653763722357292EBIT2894nana1127357292Netprofit3055nana1402434307Adjnetprofit56523640149326254PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin146136141146150154Operatingmargin170419293542Adjnetprofitmargin231827273338ReturnonequityROE3271749111139153GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx040303030405Currentratiox131413141516Receivableturnoverdays333657605455Inventoryturnoverdays335299312297298300Payableturnoverdays565549611596573565VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE128na593203142109PEdiluted131na604207144110PB313829221815SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE610Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7
 
Copyright © 2005 - 2021 Nxny.com All Rights Reserved 备案号:蜀ICP备15031742号-1