>> 招银国际-China Economy – Inflation declines as aggregate demand remains weak-230310
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研究报告全文：10Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaEconomyInflationdeclinesasaggregatedemandremainsweakChinasCPIgrowthwasfarbelowexpectationsinFebruaryasconsumerdemandBingnanYEPhDremainedweakandthefluctuationofporksupplycauseditspricecollapse85269895170DurablepricescontinuedtodeclinewhilehousingrentandservicecostmildlyyebingnancmbicomhkimprovedPPIfurtherdeclinedasglobaldemandforgoodsremainedweakwhilestrongserviceinflationcausedstrongerFedtighteningWeexpectChinasKevinZhanginflationmayfurtherdeclineinnext2-3monthsandthenpickupin2H23-202485253364682astheeconomycontinuestorecoverThereflationshouldbemildforChinaaskevinzhangcmbicomhkdomesticdemandrecoveryisinagradualmannerandoverseaseconomymayseearecessionTheweakreflationindicatesthatChinacontinuestohavenegativeoutputgapthisyearThecountryhastomaintaineasingcreditpolicytoYoYsupportthegrowth16CPIgrowthdroppedtothelowestsincelastFebruaryCPIincreased101412YoYinFebruarydownfrom21inJanuaryMeanwhiletheYoYgrowthof108coreCPIdeclinedfrom1to06indicatingconsumerdemandremained6weakByiteminflationinstapleslikemilkalcoholicdrinksandmedicines42mildlyclimbedasdemandincreasedHoweverpricesindurableslikehome02appliancesvehiclesandtelecomequipmentcontinuedtodeclinefromthe4YoYperspectiveasthedemandremainedweakInflationineducationhome6serviceremainedlowwhilehousingrentcontinuedtodeclineaslabormarket20192020202120222023CPIPPIwasnotstrongFromtheMoMperspectiveCPIdeclined05inFebruaryForecastnumbersfromMarch2023afterrising08inJanuarySpecificallyporkandtourismpricesdeclinedSourceWindCMBIGMsignificantlywhilethepriceinvehiclefuelmilkandalcoholdrinksroseMoMYoYYoY340PPIfurtherdeclinedascommoditiespricesretreatedwithexpectations330ofstrongerFedtighteningandhigherrecessionriskPPIdropped14220YoYinFebruaryafterdecreasing08inJanuaryFromtheMoMperspective210PPIheldflatinFebruarycomparedtoadeclineof04inJanuaryGlobal10commoditiespricescontinuedtodeclineasinvestorsexpectedstrongerFed110tighteningandhigherrecessionriskaheadInFebruarynon-metalmineral020130productsrubberplasticproductsandgeneralequipmentdropped070320192020202120222023and02MoMrespectivelyAsthereopeningimprovedtrafficmobilityandCoreCPILHSdemandforenergyPPIincrudeoilnaturalgasrose17MoMwhileFoodpriceRHSFuelpriceRHSpetroleumcoalprocessingpriceincreased06MoMHowevercoalpricesSourceWindCMBIGMdroppedby22MoMinFebruaryasChinaexpandedcoalimportstolowerenergycostsWemaintainforecastforCPIgrowthat22andthatforPPIgrowthat-05in2023TheCPIgrowthmayremainlowinMarchandAprilandthengraduallyclimbastheeconomycontinuestoresumeWeexpecttheCPIgrowthtoreach22in2023and25in2024ThePPImayfurtherdeclineinthenexttwomonthsbeforegraduallyimprovingin2H23WeexpectthePPItodrop05in2023andrise16in2024ChinahastomaintaineasingcreditpolicytoboostgrowthChinasweakreflationindicatesitsgrowthremainsfarbelowpotentialthisyearThecountryhastomaintaineasingcreditpolicytoboostgrowthThepolicymakersmayfacethepressuretoeasepolicyagainafterafewmonthsasthedomesticrecoverypacemayslowandoverseaseconomybracesforarecessionPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk10Mar2023Figure1MoMChangesofChinaCPIinFebruarySourceWindCMBIGMestimatesFigure2ChinaCPIGrowthinStaplesFigure3ChinaCPIGrowthinDurablesSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure4ChinaCPIGrowthinServicesFigure5Hog-to-grainRatioinChinaSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE210Mar2023Figure6ChinaCoreCPIGrowth2YT-bondRatesFigure7ChinaSecond-handCarPrice43210120162017201820192020202120222023CoreCPIYoY2YT-bondratesSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure8MoMChangesofChinaPPIinFebruarySourceWindCMBIGMestimatesFigure9ChinaPPIinEnergyMetalFigure10ChinaPPIinEquipmentSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE310Mar2023Figure11GlobalM2GrowthCommodityInflationFigure12GlobalSupplyChainPressureSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure13ManufacturingCapacityUtilisationRatioFigure14Copper-to-goldRatioSourceWindCMBIGMSourceBloombergCMBIGMFigure15ChinaAutoHousingSalesFigure16InfrastructureInvestmentinChinaYoY2YCAGRfor2021YoYYoY40602530502040201530102010010510002010530204030105040156020172018201920202021202220192020202120222023LocalgovernmentlandrevenueLHSAutosalesHousingsalesin30citiesInfrastructureinvestmentRHSSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE410Mar2023Figure17OperationRateinChinaFigure18MOUTAIWholesaleReferencePriceSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure19MobilityIndicatorsinChinasTier-1CitiesFigure20PBOCPolicyRatesLiquidityConditionSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE510Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6
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