研究报告全文：SWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorldNewEnergyCompanyResearch9March2023WaitingfortheturningpointBuyXinyiSolarHoldings00968HKUnchangedMarketData9March2023ClosingpriceHK901XinyiSolarHoldingsreported2022revenueofHK20544bn279YoYandnetprofitofHK382bnHSCEI6649-224YoYwhichwasbelowmarketexpectationThecompanyalsodeclaredfinalcashdividendof52-weekhighLowHK1498716HK100centspershareMarketCapHKm80173UnsatisfactoryresultsOverallgrossmarginreached30vs438inFY21andnetprofitmarginSharesoutstandingm8898reached186vs307inFY21SolarglasssegmentgeneratedrevenueofHK17655bn356ExchangeRateRmb-HK115YoYandgrossprofitmarginof238vs372inFY21duetotheincreasingrawmaterialcostsSolarfarmbusinessrecordedrevenueofHK2744bn-33YoYandgrossprofitmarginof704vsPricePerformanceChart2000748inFY21Thebelow-expectationresultsweremainlydueto12productionlinesof10001000tonsdayeachwerepostponedin2022duetotheCOVID-19relatedrestrictions2Anamount000ofHK3418mnoftariffadjustmentreceivableswasdeductedfromthesolarfarmrevenueaccording-1000totheNoticeonverificationofeligibilityfortherenewableenergypowergenerationsubsidy3The-2000SGAexpensestorevenueratioincreasedfrom46inFY21to52inFY22duetotheincreasing-3000-4000storagecostsandRDexpensesFinancecostalsoincreasedfromHK1408mninFY21to-5000HK1984mninFY22duetotheincreasesintheinterestrateCashandcashequivalentsrecordedHK53bnandthenetdebtgearingratiowas77vs15inFY21信义光能恒生中国企业指数SourceBloombergManagementguidanceForthesolarglasssegmentthecompanyguidedthattherewillbe7linesof1000tonsdayeachputintoproductionin2023andithasanother7linesathandCurrentlyitscapacityis19800tonsdaywithamarketshareof30basedonthemodulesdemandandwillAnalystreachcapacityof26800tonsday35YoYand34600tonsday29YoYbyendof2023andChenChuyao2024Forthesolarfarmsegmentmanagementguidedthatself-developedsolarfarmprojecttargetA0230521110001for2023wouldbeintherangebetween500MWand800MWAsforitsjointventureXinyiSiliconchencyswsresearchcomHoldingsthePhaseIprojectof60000tonsyearpolysiliconcapacityisexpectedtostartoperationattheendof2023whichwaslaterthanpreviouslyguidedCapexin2023willbeHK95bnofwhichContactHK30bnwillbeusedforthepolysiliconprojectHK45bnwillbeusedforthesolarglasssegmentandHK20bnwillbeusedforthesolarfarmsegmentChenChuyaoA0230521110001IndustryoutlookWeexpectdownstreamdemandtoboomespeciallyfortheutility-solarprojectschencyswsresearchcomgiventhatpolysiliconwillnolongerbeaconstraintandpricesacrossthesupplychainswoulddecreaseWethereforeexpectdomesticandglobaldemandtoreach120GWand350GWrespectivelyOntheotherhandthepublichearingprocessdidnotimposestrongrestrictionsonthenewsolarglassprojectssofaraccordingtomanagementThetotaldailymeltingcapacityoftheindustryreached74880tonsdayrepresentingariseof815from2021AsaresultweexpectthatpriceofsolarglasswillremainatamoderatelevelIndustryleaderswillperformbetterwhenitcomestocostmanagementthankstotheireconomiesofscaleInfactGPMofsolarglassincreasedfrom227in1H22to246in2H22Consideringthatoff-seasonpriceswouldbeexecutedfornaturalgasin2Q23weexpectGPMofsolarglassofthecompanytograduallyimprovethroughout2023MaintainBuyratingGiventheincreasedcompetitionanditsslowdownofcapacityexpansionwecutourEPSforecastsin23-24EfromHK087toHK057341YoYin23EfromHK123toHK081414YoYin24EandforecastEPSofHK099216YoYin25EWecutourtargetpricefromHK2165toHK115representing20x23EPEandmaintainbuyratingRisksdownstreamdemandbelowexpectationCapacityexpansionbelowexpectationFinancialsummaryandvaluation202120222023E2024E2025ERevenueHKDmillion1606520544291944007648689GrowthYoY304279421373215NetprofitHKDmillion49243820512172438805GrowthYoY80-224341414216EPSHKD056043057081099ROE173127164210226Dividendyield3022294149PEx16221015611191PBx2223211816NoteEPSiscalculatedasthenetprofitattributabletoshareholdersdividedbytotalsharecapitalSWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorld投资要点信义光能公布2022年业绩营收20544亿港元同比279归母净利382亿港元同比-224不及市场预期公司宣布派发每股末期股息10港仙业绩不及预期22年公司整体毛利率3021年为438净利润率18621年为307光伏玻璃板块营收17655亿港元同比356毛利率23821年为372主因原材料成本上涨光伏电站板块营收2744亿港元同比-33毛利率70421年为748业绩不及预期主因122年有2条1000吨日的光伏玻璃产线因疫情限制延迟投产2根据22年10月的国补核查文件公司对应收电价补贴计提了3418亿港元的减值3因存储费用和研发费用上涨SGA费用率由46上升至52由于利率上升财务费用由21年的14亿港元上升至198亿港元截至22年末公司在手现金53亿港元净负债率7721年为15扩产指引公司指引2023年将投产7条1000吨日的光伏玻璃产线此外还有7条产线储备在手目前公司名义产能为19800吨日市占率基于组件需求量计算30投产后23-24年名义产能将达26800吨日同比3534600吨日同比292023年自主开发的光伏电站项目将达500-800MW信义晶硅一期6万吨多晶硅产能将于2023年末投产较1H22指引有所推迟23年计划资本开支95亿港元其中30亿用于信义晶硅45亿用于光伏玻璃扩产20亿用于光伏电站建设行业展望2023年硅料不再成为产业链瓶颈我们预计随着产业链价格下降终端需求尤其是地面电站需求将爆发预计2023年国内装机120GW全球装机350GW然而听证会流程对业内新增产能约束力有限22年末国内光伏玻璃名义产能高达74880吨日同比815需求高增但供给充裕我们因而认为23年光伏玻璃价格将维持在中性水平龙头凭借自身的规模优势将在成本管控上优于行业平均水平于2H22信义光能光伏玻璃板块的毛利率由上半年的227小幅提升至246随着2Q23天然气执行淡季价格我们认为23年公司光伏玻璃板块的毛利率将逐季提升维持买入评级考虑到光伏玻璃行业竞争加剧公司扩产速度相对放缓下调23-24年EPS23年EPS057港元同比34124年EPS081港元同比414前值分别为087港元123港元预测25年EPS为099港元同比216将目标价由2165港元下调至115港元对应20倍23年PE维持买入评级风险提示下游装机需求不及预期公司扩产不及预期JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchCompanyfinancialsConsolidatedincomestatementHKDmillion202120222023E2024E2025ERevenuefromprincipleoperations1606520544291944007648689Costofsales-9022-14386-20426-27759-33850Grossprofit7043615987681231714839Otherincome278240000Distributionexpense-22-91-135-176-205Sellinggeneraladministrativeexpense-711-979-1412-1941-2348EBITDA7867686890151245514945EBIT6709537972171019612282Financecost-141-198-257-329-286Profitbeforetax656851816960986711996Incometaxexpense-987-835-1135-1628-1979Minorityinterest6575267059971212Netprofitattributabletocommon49243820512172438805shareholdersSourceCompanydataSWSResearchConsolidatedcashflowstatementHKDmillion202120222023E2024E2025EProfitbeforetaxation656851816960986711996PlusDepreciationamortisation11180179822592663Financecost141198257329286Gainslossesfrominvestment-3831-31-31-31Changeinworkingcapital82396396149949411937Others-4983-9157-8262-11937-14558CFfromoperatingactivities362958926871998012293Capex-4600-7037-9500-9000-4000OtherCFfrominvestingactivities-158583-3224-997-1212CFfrominvestingactivities-4758-6454-12724-9997-5212Proceedsfromshareissuance141000Netchangeinliabilities1872651423692-2208Dividendandinterestpaid-2028-2281-2304-3259-3962OtherCFfromfinancingactivities-66311997059971212CFfromfinancingactivities-806-107535421429-4959Netcashflow-1935-1637-231114132123SourceCompanydataSWSResearchConsolidatedbalancesheetHKDmillion202120222023E2024E2025ECurrentassets2082519108182942243426774Cashcashequivalents74585326301444286550Tradeandotherreceivables7070721688461051511852Inventories20452029295040104889Othercurrentassets42514537348234823482Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers1JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchLong-terminvestment14841862189319241955PPE2484427438377044444545782Intangibleandotherassets00000Totalassets4907050575600587097076678CurrentliabilitiesBorrowings36584358530862086608Tradeandotherpayables371854226241848210343Othercurrentliabilities17450450450450Long-termliabilities578151149306120989489Totalliabilities1317315344213052723826891Minorityinterest55855483618871848396ShareholdersequitySharecapital889890890890890Reserves2942328859316753565940502Totalequity3589735231387534373249787Totalliabilitiesandequity4907050575600587097076678SourceCompanydataSWSResearchKeyperformanceindicators202120222023E2024E2025EPer-shareindicatorsHKDEarningspershare055056055087123Dilutedearningspershare055056055087123OperatingCFpershare052041048109150Dividendpershare027027027042059Netassetspershare389406440497578KeyoperatingindicatorsROIC164139122166202ROE224173156223276Grossprofitmargin535470366374386EBITDAmargin554490370351367EBITmargin483418308304322RevenuegrowthYoY354304365608324NetprofitgrowthYoY8878001578412Assetliabilityratio141163196221191Netassetturnover487473585847978Totalassetturnover343347417565634Effectivetaxrate128150153158158Dividendyield2121213347ValuationindicatorsxPE229228228145103PB3331292522EVSales9075563627EVEBITDA16215315210374SourceCompanydataSWSResearchNoteDividendyieldforecastDPSclosingpriceforecastDPSnetprofitattributabletotheshareholderspayoutratiosharesPayoutratioisgivenbymanagementguidanceNetprofitattributabletotheshareholdersandsharescomefromearningsforecastPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers2JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchInformationDisclosureUndertakingsoftheAnalystIWeamareconferredtheProfessionalQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustrybytheSecuritiesAssociationofChinaandhaveregisteredastheSecuritiesAnalystIherebyissuethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligenceprofessionalandprudentresearchmethodsandonlylegitimateinformationisusedinthisreportIamalsoresponsibleforthecontentandopinionsofthisreportIhaveneverbeenamnotandwillnotbecompensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecificrecommendationsoropinionshereinDisclosurewithrespecttotheCompanyThecompanyisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritiesThecompanyisaqualifiedsecuritiesinvestmentconsultinginstituteapprovedbyChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionTheaffiliatesoftheCompanymayholdortradetheinvestmenttargetsmentionedinthisreportinaccordancewiththelawandmayalsoprovideorseektoprovideinvestmentbankingservicesforthesetargetsTheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithinitssphereofknowledgeTheclientsmaycontactcomplianceswsresearchcomfortherelevantdisclosurematerialsorlogintowwwswsresearchcomfortheanalystsqualificationsthearrangementofthequietperiodandtheaffiliatesshareholdingsIntroductionofShareInvestmentRatingSecurityInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupofthesecurityandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthisreportwedefinethetermsasfollowsBUYSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20upsideOutperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20upsideHoldSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10downsideto10upsideUnderperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20downsideSELLSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20downsideIndustryInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupoftheindustryindexandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthereportwedefinethetermsasfollowsOverweightIndustryperformsbetterthanthatofthewholemarketNeutralIndustryperformsaboutthesameasthatofthewholemarketUnderweightIndustryperformsworsethanthatofthewholemarketWewouldliketoremindyouthatdifferentsecurityresearchinstitutionsadoptdifferentratingterminologiesandratingstandardsWeadopttherelativeratingmethodtorecommendtherelativeweightingsofinvestmentTheclientsdecisionstobuyorsellsecuritiesshallbebasedontheiractualsituationsuchastheirportfoliostructuresandothernecessaryfactorsTheclientsshallreadthroughthewholereportsoastoobtainthecompleteopinionsandinformationandshallnotrelysolelyontheinvestmentratingstoreachaconclusionTheCompanyemploysitsownindustryclassificationsystemTheindustryclassificationisavailableatoursalespersonnelifyouareinterestedHSCEIisthebenchmarkemployedinthisreportDisclaimerThisreportispublishedbySWSResearchCoLtdsubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritieshereinafterreferredtoastheCompanyinmainlandChinaexcludingHongKongMacaoandTaiwanandtobeusedsolelybytheclientsoftheCompanyincludingQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestorsandotherqualifiedclientsinaccordancewiththelawTheCompanywillnotdeemanyotherpersonasitsclientnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisreportTheclientsunderstandthatthetextmessagereminderandtelephonerecommendationarenomorethanabriefcommunicationoftheresearchopinionswhicharesubjecttothecompletereportreleasedontheCompanyswebsitehttpwwwswsresearchcomTheclientsmayaskforfollow-upexplanationsiftheysowishSaveandexceptasotherwisestipulatedinthisreportthecontactoruponthefirstpageofthereportonlyactsastheliaisonwhoshallnotprovideanyconsultingservicesThisreportisbasedonpublicinformationhowevertheauthenticityaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformationisnotwarrantedbytheCompanyThematerialstoolsopinionsandspeculationscontainedhereinarefortheclientsreferenceonlyandarenottoberegardedordeemedasaninvitationforthesaleorpurchaseofanysecurityorotherinvestmentinstrumentsThematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinonlyreflectthejudgmentoftheCompanyonthedaythisreportisreleasedThepricesvaluesandinvestmentreturnsofthesecuritiesorinvestmentinstrumentsreferredtohereinmayfluctuateAtdifferentperiodstheCompanymayreleasereportswhichareinconsistentwiththematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinTheclientsshallconsidertheCompanyspossibleconflictofinterestswhichmayaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandshallnotbasetheirinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthisreportTheclientsshouldmakeinvestmentdecisionsindependentlyandsolelyatyourownriskPleaseberemindedthatinanyeventthecompanywillnotsharegainsorlossesofanysecuritiesinvestmentwiththeclientsWhetherwrittenororalanycommitmenttosharegainsorlossesofsecuritiesinvestmentisinvalidTheinvestmentandservicesreferredtohereinmaynotbesuitableforcertainclientsandshallnotconstitutepersonaladviceforindividualclientsTheCompanydoesnotensurethatthisreportfullytakesintoconsiderationoftheparticularinvestmentobjectivesfinancialsituationsorneedsofindividualclientsTheCompanystronglysuggeststheclientstoconsiderthemselveswhethertheopinionsorsuggestionshereinaresuitablefortheclientsparticularsituationsandtoconsultanindependentinvestmentconsultantifnecessaryUndernocircumstancesshalltheinformationcontainedhereinortheopinionsexpressedhereinformsaninvestmentrecommendationtoanyoneUndernocircumstancesshalltheCompanybeheldresponsibleforanylosscausedbytheuseofanycontentshereinbyanyonePleasebeparticularlycautioustotherisksandexposuresofthemarketviainvestmentIndependentinvestmentconsultantshouldbeconsultedbeforeanyinvestmentdecisionisrenderedbasedonthisreportoratanyrequestofexplanationforthisreportwherethereceiverofthisreportisnotaclientoftheCompanyTheCompanypossessesallcopyrightsofthisreportwhichshallbetreatedasnon-publicinformationTheCompanyreservesallrightsrelatedtothisreportUnlessotherwiseindicatedinwritingallthecopyrightsofallthematerialshereinbelongtotheCompanyIntheabsenceofanypriorauthorizationbytheCompanyinwritingnopartofthisreportshallbecopiedphotocopiedreplicatedorredistributedtoanyotherpersoninanyformbyanymeansorbeusedinanyotherwayswhichwillinfringeuponthecopyrightsoftheCompanyAllthetrademarksservicemarksandmarksusedhereinaretrademarksservicemarksormarksoftheCompanyandnooneshallhavetherighttousethematanycircumstanceswithoutthepriorconsentoftheCompanyPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers3