>> 招银国际-Greentown Service (2869 HK) Profit alert roughly in-line-230313
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研究报告全文:13Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateGreentownService2869HKBUYMaintainProfitalertroughlyin-lineTargetPriceHK792TheCompanysprofitalertof5-10corenetprofitdeclinein2022EwasroughlyUpDownside610in-linewiththemarketexpectationinconsiderationofaflat1H22andtheevenCurrentPriceHK492weakermacroduring2H22Corenetmarginloweredto7in2022Efrom9in2021mainlyduetoGPMcontractiontoarangeof16-17estWhilewethinkthemarginwillbegraduallyrecoveredby1resumingconsumptionthatleadstoChinaPropertyServiceSectorrecoveryincommunityVASsuchashousingbrokerageeducationservicesetc2higherproportionofcommercialprojectsinmanagedGFAgoingforwardasMiaoZhangCompanyisputtingmoreeffortsoncommercialprojectsexpansionand3less85237618910impairmentamongbettermacroenvironmentMaintainBUYgiventhezhangmiaocmbicomhkCompanysstablecorebusinessexpansionhighbrandqualityandlessriskfromrelatedpartiesJeffreyZeng85239163727WhatisnewAftermarketcloseon10MartheCompanyannouncedtheprofitsalertthat2022Enetprofitsattributabletoshareholdersdeclinedby30-jeffreyzengcmbicomhk40YoYtoRMB500-590mnmainlyduetoRMB200mnimpairmentlossesonbothARsandequityinstrumentsamongweakmacroeconomicBellaLienvironmentCorenetprofitGP-SGAdecreasedby5-10YoYmainly85237576202duetolaborcostcontrolthatwaslesseffectivethanexpectedbellalicmbicomhkRoughlyin-linewithexpectationCorenetprofitwasroughlyin-linewiththemarketexpectationasCompanybookedaflatYoY1H22andthemacroenvironmentwasevenweakerin2H22CorenetprofitmargindecreasedfromStockData9in2021to65-69in2022EmainlyduetothedeclineofGPmarginMktCapHKmn15903whichweexpecttocontract2-3pptto16-17levelbasedonCompanys18Avg3mthstoHKmn2437YoYrevenuegrowthin2022EandrelativelystableSGAin2H2252wHighLowHK920322TotalIssuedSharesmn3232SegmentreviewRevenuefrombasicPMwasrelativelystablebuttheGFASourceBloombergconversionrateremainedlowat20levelin2022calculatedbynewmanaged-GFAreservedGFAduetodelayeddeliveryandCompanysexitofShareholdingStructuresomeprojectsThehousingbrokerageeducationservicesandcarparkingOrchidGarden316sellingbusinessweredamagedheavierthanothersbyrepeatedoutbreaksofLIHairong140COVID-19ConsultingservicewasinfluencedbyworseningbroaderpropertyFreefloat544marketWhileretailbusinessbookeddecentgrowthin2022EastheCompanySourceHKExtookpartinthematerialsupplyforresidentsduringthelockdownSharePerformanceHowisthefutureWithmoreproportionofcommercialprojectsandtheAbsoluteRelativeimprovingeconomicenvironmentthatleadstorecoveryofcommunityvalue1-mth-8207servicebusinesstheoverallGPmarginwillbegraduallyrecoveredto17-183-mth-163-138levelin2024EImpairmentlosseswillbelessgoingforwardamongimproving6-mth-118-116macrowhichwillhelpNPmarginrecoveryaswellMaintainBUYgiven12-mth-238-190CompanysstablecorebusinessexpansionhighbrandqualityandlessriskSourceBloombergfromrelatedpartiesRisks1worse-than-expectedbusinessexpansionand12-mthPricePerformance2slower-than-expectedeconomicrecoveryHK2869HKHSIrebased10EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn1010612566156191909723038YoYgrowth178243243223206NetincomeRMBmn71084686211141362EPSRMB023026027034042YoYgrowth3612229220Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22ConsensusEPSRMBNANA030038049PEx201179177137112SourceBloombergPBx2325232118Yield1536202631AuditorKPMGROE104121114134148NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk13Mar2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue1010612566156191909723038Profitbeforetax10031191121315671917Propertymanagement6429777095221139612986DA145181200200200servicesConsultancyservices15001960228026813180Changeinworkingcapital205347765538Communityvalue-added21772836341844205973Incometaxpaid221242306396484servicesTechnologyservices--400600900Costofsales818310236127961561018725Others1842358192106Grossprofit19232331282434864312Cashflowfromoperating13161019110213351565activitiesOtherincome138981397037CAPEX348409300300300Sellingandmarketing156201249305368Others1917108687790Administrativeexpensesexpenses8911050130156193Cashflowfrominvesting2264302232223210Otherexpenses4338956586705activitiesOperatingprofit9701150119315471897Equityraised-----Changeofdebts34629---SharefromJCE2821202020Dividendspaid223560302390477Financecost026---Others3200218362923Exceptional55---Cashflowfromfinancing2977779338419500activitiesPre-taxprofit10031191121315671917Netchangeincash202961532693855Cashatthebeginningofthe26414437430748385532Incometax262301306396484FXyeardifferences23369---74189090711721433Cashattheendoftheyear44374307483855326387Profitfortheyear3044455871Non-controllinginterest71084686211141362Netprofittoshareholders1010612566156191909723038KeyratiosYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EBalancesheetSalesmixYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EPropertymanagementservices636618610597564Non-currentassets44695097521753375457Consultancyservices148156146140138PPE6957738739731073Communityvalue-added215226219231259Goodwill284451451451451servicesTechnologyservices262626Otherintangibleassets362430430430430Total10001000100010001000Others31283442346234823502ProfitlossratiosGrossmargin190185181183187Currentassets86099278106611231914264Operatingmargin9692768182Cashandcashequivalents346434543662794Netmargin7067555859Tradeandotherreceivables19903055379746425600Effectivetaxrate262252252252252Others62745789632170147870GrowthTotalAsset1307914375158771765519721Revenue178243243223206Grossprofit243212212235237Currentliabilities46865789671677358863Operatingprofit61318637297226Tradeandotherpayables29633706463356536781Netprofit48819118292223Contractliabilities11121343134313431343Others610739739739739BalancesheetratiosCurrentratiox1816161616Non-currentliabilities12811216118611631144Receivableturnoverdays7289898989Deferredtaxliabilities7676767676Others12051139111010861068ReturnsROE104121114134148Totalliabilities596770047902889810007ROA5459546369Shareholdersequity68217019757983039189PershareNon-controllinginterests291351396454525EPSRMB023026027034042TotalEquity71127370797587579714DPSRMB007017009012015BVPSRMB203190206228255SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE213Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3
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