研究报告全文：13Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaPolicyCreditgrowthreboundedamideasingcreditpolicyChinareportedunexpectedlystrongcreditgrowthinFebruaryascreditdemandBingnanYEPhDfromlocalgovernmentsSOEswasstrongwhilethatfromhouseholdsgradually85237618967recoveredTherecentincreaseofmoneymarketratesindicatesanormalizationyebingnancmbicomhkofliquidityconditionfromexcessiveeasingtomildeasingasnewcreditsupplyandhousingmarketrecoverybeatexpectationsin2M23WebelievemoneyKevinZhangmarketrateshavealreadyreturnedtoreasonablelevelsThePBOChasto85253364682maintainreasonableampleliquidityconditionandeasingcreditpolicytorelievekevinzhangcmbicomhkdebtriskandboostthegrowthTherecentfailureofSiliconValleyBankhascausedcontagiousrisk-offsentimentandincreasedglobalmarketvolatilityThePBOCmaytemporarilyincreaseliquiditysupplytooffsetitsspillovereffectonChinasfinancialmarket5045ChinasnewcreditfurtherbeatexpectationsinFebruaryTotalsocial40financingrose1597YoYinFebruaryafterdeclining31YoYinJanuary35Outstandingsocialfinancingpickedup99YoYatend-Februaryafterrising3094YoYatend-JanuaryM2supplygrewatoneofthefastestpacessince252016at129YoYatend-FebruaryTheYoYgrowthofnewRMBloansto20therealsectorjumpedfrom174inJanuaryto1004inFebruarythanks1510tostrongloansupplytocorporatesandreboundinginmortgageloansto20192020202120222023householdsMeanwhilegovernmentbondfinancingincreased199YoYPBOC7DrepoBanks7Drepoafterdropping313YoYinJanuaryindicatingstrongborrowingdemand1YLPR5YLPRfromlocalgovernmentsbecauseoftheirdifficultfiscalconditionaswellastheSourceWindCMBIGMpro-growthpolicyshiftfromthetopCorporatebondfinancingalsoimprovedYoYbyslightlyrising09YoYinFebruaryafterplunging745YoYinJanuary313aslargecorporatescapexdemandstartedtoimproveNewforeigncurrency12loansreboundedtoapositivenumberforthefirsttimesincelastAprilafterthelatestroundofrenminbirallyNewtrustloansalsoturnedpositiveforthefirst211timeinrecenttwoyearsindicatingareliefofcreditriskinproperty10developmentprojects19LocalgovernmentsandSOEshadstrongcreditdemandwhilemortgageloansimprovedwithhousingmarketrecoveryNewmediumlongterm8loanstoenterprisesrose1197YoYinFebruaryafterclimbing667YoY07inJanuarySOEslocalgovernmentfinancingvehiclesandmanufacturing2017201820192020202120222023mayhavecontinuedtodominateinthenewloanstoenterprisesinFebruary7DShiborLHSM2YoYRHSAccordingtoChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionnewSourceWindCMBIGMloanstoinfrastructureleasingbusinessserviceincludingindustrialparksandmanufacturingsectorsaccountedfor62intotalnewloansinJanuaryBanksbilldiscountfinancingremainednegativeinFebruaryasthestrongloandemandfromSOEsandlargecompaniescrowdedoutfinancingtosmallandmediumprivatebusinessesTheborrowingofhouseholdsindicatedarecoveryinhousingmarketandconsumptionexpenditureinFebruaryNewmediumtolongtermloanstohouseholdsmainlymortgagefinancingreachedRMB863bninFebruarycomparedtoRMB459bninthesameperiodlastyearNewshort-termloanstohouseholdsalsoimprovedsharplyfromanegativenumberlastFebruarytoRMB1218bnthisFebruaryChinawillmaintaineasingcreditpolicytorelievedebtriskandboostthegrowthTherecentincreaseofmoneymarketratesindicatesanormalizationoftheliquidityconditionfromexcessiveeasingtomildeasingasnewcreditPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk13Mar2023supplyandhousingmarketrecoverybeatexpectationsin2M23WebelievemoneymarketrateshavealreadyreturnedtoreasonablelevelsandthePBOCwillsharplytightenthemonetarypolicyaheadChinasGDPgrowthremainsbelowthepotentialgrowthasthereflationpressureisquitelowMeanwhilethepropertysectorandlocalgovernmentsstillfacestressThePBOChastomaintainreasonableampleliquiditysupplyandeasingcreditpolicytoboostthegrowthandrelievedebtriskthisyearTherecentfailureofSiliconValleyBankhascausedcontagiousrisk-offsentimentandincreasedglobalmarketvolatilityThePBOCmaytemporarilyincreaseliquiditysupplytooffsetitsspillovereffectonChinasfinancialmarketPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE213Mar2023Figure1GrowthofoutstandingOBSfinancingFigure2GrowthofoutstandingbondfinancingYoYYoY40253020201015010102053040020162017201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023EntrustedloanTrustloanBanksacceptanceCorporatebondGovernmentbondSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure3TotalsocialfinancingFigure4OBSfinancingRmbbnRmbbn700060020202021202220236000400200500004000200300040020006002020202120222023100080010000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecSourceMoFCMBIGMSourceMoFCMBIGMFigure5BondfinancingFigure6NewMLtermloanstohouseholdsRmbbnRmbbn200010001500800600100040050020000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec200500JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20202021202220232020202120222023SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE313Mar2023Figure7NewshorttermloanstohouseholdsFigure8NewMLtermloanstoenterprisesRmbbnRmbbn6003800330040028002002300018001300200800400300600200JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20202021202220232020202120222023SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure9NewshorttermloanstoenterprisesFigure10BillfinancingtoenterprisesRmbbnRmbbn160090014001200600100080060030040020000200400300JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20202021202220232020202120222023SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure11GrowthofcreditmoneysupplyFigure12M1growthM1asofM2YoY1716151413121110920162017201820192020202120222023OutstandingsocialfinancingRMBloanSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE413Mar2023Figure13PBOCclaimstolargeandSMbanksFigure14TotalsocialfinancingCSI300indexRmbtrnYoYindex717600065500515500044500313400023500111300002500202320222021202020192018201720162015201420139200020162017201820192020202120222023PBOCclaimstolargebanksPBOCclaimstoSMbanksTSFoutstandingLHSCSI300indexRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure15Dailydomestictrafficflowintier-1citiesFigure16Newmortgagehousingsalesindex7DMAmn7DMAYoY1601945184011017351630601525142010131215401110105900902020202120222023140DailytrafficcongestionindexLHS2017201820192020202120222023DailysubwaypassengerflowRHSNewmortgageHousingcontractsalesvalueSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure17GrowthofhousingsalesbycitiesFigure18GrowthoflandsalesYoY2YCAGRfor20211109070503010103050702017201820192020202120222023Tier1citiesTier2citiesTier3citiesSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE513Mar2023Figure19InfrastructureinvestmentFigure20US-SinointerestspreadsYoYYoYpptUSRMB602537550204030151720101010510065205330401020172018201920202021202256LocalgovernmentlandrevenueLHS20082010201220142016201820202022US-Sino1YT-bondspreadLHSInfrastructureinvestmentRHSUSRMBspotrateRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure21Sino-USgrowthgapRMBUSchangeFigure22NetforexinflowpptUSbn2010120880156440102004052480061208510160200620082010201220142016201820202022200Sino-USnominalGDPgrowthgapLHS20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023RMBUSchangeRHSBanksnetforexpurchaseBanksnetforexreceiptSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure23MoneymarketfundingcostFigure24Bondmarketrates50745640535304253202152017201820192020202120222023107YT-bond7YAAACorporatebond201820192020202120222023YueBao3MShibor6MNCD7YAACorporatebondSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE613Mar2023Figure25ChangeofmarginbalanceanddailynetFigure26EMvolatilityandnorthboundflowtoA-buyingonmarginshareRmbbnRmbbn3001802501502001501201009050060503010015002017201820192020202120222023MoMchangeofmarginbalanceLHSDailynetbuyingonmarginRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE713Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8