研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary14Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswerequietandcautiousaheadoftonightsCPIAsianIGwidened5-10bpsandflowsskewedtosellAT1gotsupportedandHSBCCTIHroseGlennKoCFA高志和01to05ptWealsosawdemandsonSOEPerpsasratesdown85236576235glennkocmbicomhkAGILESharestransferrednotrelatedtotheputofonshorebondsasperthecompanyAGILEsmoved-075to15ptssince8Mar23SeebelowChinaPolicyNewcabinetseekstorestorebusinessconfidenceSeeCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩belowforcommentsfromoureconomicresearch85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点JerryWang王世超YesterdayAsiaIGspacewasvolatileontheconcernsofSVBcontagionand85237618919expectationofpolicymakerstosloworevenreversethepaceofratehikejerrywangcmbicomhkUST2yyieldsplunged60bpsto398onMonandtightened108bpsfrom506sincelastThuIGspreadswere5-25bpswideracrossAsiaspaceAnyreasonablebidsinstreetjustgotaggressivelyhitFlow-wisebuy-sellratiowasroughly46intheAMsessionandturnedouttobeonewaysellinginthePMsessionfollowingtheTreasuryyieldsdrasticdropFinancialsspaceencounteredaggressivesellingfromFMpanicsellersonthebackofSVBheadlinesBankT2sbroadlyended10-25bpswiderCCB32sweretraded20bpswidertoT106BNKEA26s27swidened20-25bpsChinaTMTsSOEswidened10-15bpsamidtwo-wayflowsTENCNT30s31sclosed8-15bpswideratT174andT167respectivelyBBBtechnamesLENOVO32sMEITUA30swidened15bpsHAOHUAcurvewastraded8-13bpswiderwithHAOHUA30closedatT220OutsideChinaKoreaandSGspaceswere5-15bpswiderWesawheavysellingonT2spaceaswellChinapropertyspacewassubduedexceptstate-ownednamesCRHZCHPOWINV26sgained2ptsCHJMAOsVNKRLEsweremarkeddown05-1ptincashpricesYXREITlowered05ptMoodyshasplacedYuexiuREITsratingsonreviewfordowngradeCOGARDsFUTLANsFTLNHDswerequotedunchangedGRNLGRsweretraded15-35ptslowerKWGPROsCENCHIsCIFIHGslowered05-1ptElsewhereFOSUNIsweredown05ptEHOUSE23sweremarkeddown15ptsatlow-10sMacaugamingnamesMGMCHIsWYNMACsweretraded15ptslowerintocloseMPELsdropped15-25ptsIndianspacewasratherquietVEDLNsweremarked05ptposttheonenotchdowngradebyMoodysIndonesiannamesLMRTSPsweredown05-15ptsTheAsiaAT1PerpLGFVmarkethadanextremelychoppydayamidvolatilityinmacroastheSVBUSregionalbankcrisiscontinuedtounfoldespeciallyafterLondonentryamidFirstRepublicBankspre-marketplungeAsiaAT1sperformedmixedWesawHSBC8PerpAT1hammered2ptsto985frommiddayhighof1005andthepaperclosedat988125ptslowerthanPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk114Mar2023lastcloseAnotherAsiaEuropecrossovernameSTANLN775PerpAT1wasdown15ptsWhilstKoreanandThaiAT1sweremarkeddown025-05ptalthoughbidsremainedfairlysupportiveOntheotherhandChineseAT1scontinuedtobeextremelyresilientandwereupto05pthigheralthoughwesawsomeprofittakingfromRMhereICBCAS32Perpwasmarked05pthigherat92875SOEPerpswereresilientandgrounded025pthigherunderChineseRMbuyingwhilstHKFFLPerpswererelativelymutedwithspotlightsawayfromthematthemomentNewCTIHweretraded025pthigherto10075atcloseMeanwhileLGFVsremainedintheirownuniverseandwerelargelyquieteffectivelytighteningintermsofcreditspreadsdespitethemassivewideninginbroaderhigh-betaIGLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangePOWINV37812062698021GRNLGR714012227418-36MTRC21211022693421MPEL558071727868-25AVICAT3104282692820SINOCE27011325723-18CRHZCH41802262994520MPEL534072128847-18TAISEM13410252691220WYNMAC518121529804-17MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsremainedweakyesterdaySP-015Dow-028andNasdaq045weremainlydraggedbybanknamesDepartmentoftheTreasuryFedandFDICtookpromptactionandannouncedonMondaythattheywillensuredepositortowithdrawtheirdepositsinSVBTheUStreasuryyieldscontinuedtodropyesterdaythe251030yieldsreached403368355370respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点AGILESharestransferrednotrelatedtotheputofonshorebondsasperthecompanyAsperourdiscussionswithAgilethetransferofc36oftheChenfamilyon8Mar23toHSBCWealthistodigitalizetheshareholdingofChenfamilyThemajorshareholdercannotpledgehissharesduringtheblackoutAccordingtoAgileitwouldbeabletohandletheputofonshorebondsofRMB145bnwithoutraisingadditionaldebtsInFY23ithasoffshoreloanrepaymentsofHKD33bnwhichcouldbecoveredbycashatopcolevelsAgiledidnotprovidedetailsonsharespledgeifanyofthecontrollingshareholderandtheplanfortheremaining101stakesnotyetdigitalizedRecalledthattheChenfamilyhas626stakesinAgileAspertheCCASSrecordstakesunderHSBCWealthincreasedto505from145startedfrom8Mar23ChinaPolicyNewcabinetseekstorestorebusinessconfidenceChinasnewcabinetleadersheldapressconferenceafterthecloseoftheNPCsessionyesterdayPremierLiQiangoutlinedthreemajortasksforthenewcabinetaspeopleswell-beinghigh-qualitydevelopmentandreformsopeningofChinaeconomyThepremiersoughttoboostbusinessconfidencewiththepromiseofunswervingsupportfortheprivatebusinessThenewcabinetseemspragmaticasmostleadershaverichworkexperienceinthesoutheasternprovincesorstrongindustrialtechnologybackgroundThepublicinstitutionalreorganizationindicatesChinesepolicymakersfocusontechnologyinnovationfinancialriskreliefanddigitaleconomydevelopmentinfuture214Mar2023Thenewcabinethasthreemajortasksinnextfiveyears-Thefirstistoimprovepeopleswell-beingbymeetingpeoplesaspirationsLisaidmostpeopledonotkeeptheireyesonGDPgrowtheverydayastheyaremoreconcernedabouttheirdailylifelikehousingemploymentincomeeducationhealthcareandenvironmentalconditionThisdoesnotmeanthatChinanolongerneedsGDPgrowthbutthegrowthneedstobemoreinclusivesothatitcanimprovepeopleswell-beingandbenefiteveryoneThereforethecabinetwillpaymoreattentiontoinclusivegrowthandsocialdevelopmenttoimprovepeopleslivelihood-Thesecondistoboosthigh-qualitydevelopmentwithsciencetechinnovationmodernindustrialsystemandgreentransformationChinahastoaccelerateinnovationupgradeindustryandboostgreendevelopmenttoassuresustainablegrowthduetoagingpopulationclimbinglaborcostshighdebtburdenandrisingdemandforbetterenvironmentalcondition-ThelastistofirmlypushforwardreformsandopeningofChinaseconomytoboostbusinessconfidenceandstrengthenthegrowthmomentumNewpremierseekstoboostbusinessconfidence-FirstlyPremierLiQiangmadethecommitmenttoachievingthe5GDPgrowthtargetthisyearHeacknowledgedChinawillnotfinditeasytoachievethegrowthtargetduetouncertaintyinglobaleconomyandChinashugeGDPamountasahighbaseHoweverthepremiervowedtousemacropoliciesdemandboostmeasuresreforminnovationandriskreliefpoliciestomeetthegrowthtarget-SecondPremierLipledgedtoprovideunswervingsupportfortheprivatebusinesswithmeasurestoensurefaircompetitionandprotectpropertyrightsHesaidthePartyscommitmentinthisregardisunequivocalandsteadfast-ThirdlythepremiershowedthewillingnessofMainlandChinatorestartcross-straitvisitseconomiccooperationandculturalcommunicationwithChineseTaipei-LastPremierLialsoextendedconciliatoryremarkstowardsWashingtonandappealedformoregoodwillbetweenChinaandtheUSwhileblamingsomeAmericanvoicesforattemptingtodecouplethetwocountriesNewcabinetseemspragmaticasmostleadershaverichworkexperienceinSoutheastChinaorstrongindustrialtechnologybackground-AtthepremierlevelLiQiangDingXuexiangandHeLifengworkedinthesoutheastprovincesforalongtimewithapro-businessreputationwhileZhangGuoqingandLiuGuozhonghadthemilitaryoraerospaceindustrialbackgroundAttheministerlevelmostleadersalsousedtoworkinEastandSouthChinaorhadastrongbackgroundinindustrialsortechnologyThisarrangementshowsthecabinetwillfocusonboostingeconomicgrowthtechinnovationindustrialupgradeswhiletheCCCPCwilldealwithSino-USstrategiccompetitionandsystematicriskpreventionWenotetheNPCvotedtoretainYiGangandLiuKunasthePBOCgovernorandMinisterofFinancerespectivelyTheirrespectiveleadershipinthecentralbankandMoFmaybeextendedforafewmonthstoseekasmoothtransitionduringtheperiodwithfinancialregulatoryreformsandcabinetreorganizationThepublicinstitutionalreorganizationindicatesChinasfocusontechinnovationfinancialriskreliefanddigitaleconomyinfuture314Mar2023-ThefirstimportantreorganizationisrelatedtosciencetechnologymanagementsystemTheCentralCommitteeoftheCommunistPartyofChinaCCCPCwillsetuptheCentralScienceTechnologyCommissiontoguidestrategiesandleverageresourcestoboostsciencetechnologyinnovationTheMinistryofScienceTechnologyMSTinthecabinetwillberestructuredwithlessroleindistributionofgovernmentRDfundsandmorefocusonstrategyplanspolicesandincentivemechanismstoboostoriginalinnovationinkeyareasCorporateswillplayamoreimportantroleindecidingtheflowofRDresourcesinfuture-ThesecondreformisonthefinancialregulatorysystemTheCCCPCwillsetuptheCentralFinancialWorkCommissiontooverseepoliciesfunctionsandkeypersonnelissuesinthefinancialsystemThePartytriestoassertmorecontroloverthestate-ownedpartofthesystemtomakesureitisinlinewiththecountrysstrategicgoalssystematicriskpreventiontechinnovationself-relianceindustrialupgradingandinclusivedevelopmentwithcommonprosperityIntheministryleveltheNationalFinancialRegulatoryAdministrationNFRAwillreplaceChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionCBIRCandtakeovercertainfunctionsofthePBOCregulationoverfinancialgroupcompaniesandfinancialconsumerprotectionandChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissioninvestorprotectionChinasnewregulatorysystemmaybeabitsimilartothatinUKorAustraliaThecentralbankisresponsibleformonetarypolicyandmacroprudentialregulationtheNFRAisinchargeofinstitutionalfunctionandbehaviorregulationsoverbanksinsurersandfinancialconsumerprotectionandtheCSRCwilldealwithcapitalmarketregulationWhatisspecialforChinaisthesecuritiesregulatorhasaprominentresponsibilityinsupportingthecapitalfundraisingofhard-techandhigh-endmanufacturingsectorswhichareimportantforChinasstrategiccompetitionagainsttheUSTheNFRAwillenhanceverticalregulationoversmallregionalbanksbyboostingthecapacityofitsbranchesTheNFRAwillmonitorregionalfinancialriskmorecloselyinfutureInadditionthepolicymakersrequirelocalbankstofocusonregionalorcommunitydevelopmenttofacilitateinclusivedevelopmentasitmaybecomemoredifficultforregionalbankstoexpandtheirbusinessesacrossprovincesorregionsinfutureTheNFRAwillnottakepartinthepersonnelmanagementoverthefournationalAMCsassomecentralstate-ownedfinancialgroupsmaytakeoverthoseAMCswithassetandbusinessrestructuring-ChinawillsetuptheNationalDataBureauNDBtoratchetupdigitaleconomydevelopmentTheNDBwillpromotedatainfrastructureconstructionandintegrationsharingdevelopmentutilizationofdataresourcesacrossthecountryBytakingoverseveralregulatorsdata-relatedregulationresponsibilitiestheNDBcouldmaketheregulationpolicymoreconsistentandclearerforprivateandinternationalbusinessesinChinaThereformindicatesChinasfirmdeterminationtoboostthedevelopmentofdigitaleconomyandsmartsocietyinfutureTheChinesepolicymakersconsiderdataasanewfactorfortheproductionfunctionwhichcanboosttechinnovationandtotalfactorproductivityClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineToday414Mar2023NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere99creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB71bnAsforMonth-to-date928creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB775bnraisedrepresentinga112yoyincreaseADTINFitchaffirmedAdaniTransmissionatBBB-andstableoutlookitalsoaffirmedAdaniElectricityMumbaisUSDnotesatBBB-DALWANDalianWandaCommercialManagementchairmanQiJieresignsduetopersonalreasonsFUTLANSeazenHoldingsproposesuptoRMB8bnprivateplacementofnewsharestofundsixdevelopmentprojectsitplanstoredeemRMB11bn19Xincheng01bondson20MarMeanwhileSeazenHoldingscanceledtheprivateplanofRMB5bnfirstproposedin2016FWDGRPFWDRe-submitsMainBoardListingApplicationtoHKEXGCLNEGCLNewEnergyofferstopurchaseuptoUSD498mnof1000seniornotesdue2024GDPOLYBeijingEnergytoholdbankmeetingonWednesdayforuptoUSD500mnthree-yearbulletgreenloanHONGQIChinaHongqiaounitissuesRMB1bn366-daybillstorepaydebtsJINGRUJingrui1H22revenuedropped515yoytoUSD358mnPWRLNGPowerlongcitescureofmissed10FebcouponbyendofgraceperiodRISSUNRiseSunshareholdersapproveproposalsonuptoRMB3bnprivateplacementSMCPMSanMiguelCorpsubscribestoUSD500mnredeemableperpetualsecuritiesofSMCGlobalPowerHoldingsYXREITMoodysputYuexiuREITsBaa3ratingsonreviewfordowngradeCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisions514Mar2023ThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6