研究报告全文:MN15Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateQ-Tech1478HKFY22largelyin-lineAutoVRtoaccelerategrowthTargetPriceHK520Q-techsearningsdeclineof80YoYwasin-linewithprofitwarningearlierPreviousTPHK576down70-80YoYWebelievetheworstisoverandearningsgrowthwillUpDownside203resumeinFY23Edrivenbyhigh-endCCMsalesmix35vs30inFY22CurrentPriceHK432andstrongernon-smartphonesegment50YoYToreflectinventorycorrectionin1H23Eandnon-mobileexpansionweloweredourFY23-24EEPSChinaTechnologyby8-23Tradingat88x65xFY2324EPEwebelievethestockhasAlexNGattractiverisk-rewardgivenearningsrecoveryintoFY23-24EMaintainBUYwith85239000881newTPofHK52basedonsame10xFY23EPEalexngcmbicomhkFY22weaknessin-lineQ-techFY22revenuenetprofitwaslargelyin-lineHanqingLIlihanqingcmbicomhkdown2680YoYmainlydueto1CCMshipmentASPdeclineof1216YoY2FPMshipmentASPdeclineof335YoYGPMStockDatadropped55pptsYoYto39onintensifiedcompetitionlowutilizationandMktCapHKmn51192materialcosthikeonFXfluctuationAvg3mthstoHKmn4952wHighLowHK656290TotalIssuedSharesmn11850ConservativeonsmartphonedemandinneartermMgmtstatedthatSourceFactSet2023capexplanwillfocusonnon-smartphonedevelopmentandShareholdingStructureconservativeonsmartphonecapacityexpansionimplyingbumpydemandHENingning636recoveryinourviewDespiteshipmentweaknessmgmtguided32MCCMHarvestFundManagementCo25shipmentvolumemixof35vs30inFY22givenhigh-endsmartphoneLtdSourceHKExreplacementcyclewithOISandperiscopefeatureupgradeSharePerformanceNon-smartphonegrowthtoaccelerateForautoCCMQ-techwonADASAbsoluteRelative1-mth-151-69orderswithContinentalVOYAHandChangananditsToFand1M2MDMS3-mth-1804camenteredmassproductionforXpengZEEKRInadditionVRpancake6-mth6139lensmoduleswillentermassproductionin2023Overallweexpectnon-SourceFactSetsmartphoneCCMtodeliver112103YoYsalesgrowthinFY2324E12-mthPricePerformance1H23EweaknesspricedinMaintainBUYwithnewTPofHK52WeloweredourFY23-24EEPSby8-23toreflectsmartphonebumpyrecoveryWebelieve1H23inventorydigestionanddemandweaknessaremostlypricedinTradingat88xFY23EPEthestocklooksattractiveinourviewgivenearningsrecoveryinFY2324EWemaintainBUYwithnewTPofHK52basedonsame10xFY23EPEUpcomingcatalystsincludeproductlaunchesautoclientwinsandshipmentrecoverySourceFactSetEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn1866313759150801665820036YoYgrowth7326396105203NetprofitRMBmn86281702510868839048EPSReportedRMB073015043058076YoYgrowth188021976347315ConsensusEPSRMB074027049070087PEx153314886550PBx2811090807Yield0000233140ROE20336103126149Netgearing08266338123167SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk15Mar2023FocusChartsFigure1RevenuegrowthtrendFigure2RevenuebreakdownSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3MarginstrendFigure4CCMshipmentmixSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5CCMmonthlyshipmentFigure6FPMmonthlyshipmentSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE215Mar2023Keytakeawaysfromanalystcall2022ReviewRevenuewasRMB138bndown263YoYdueto1CCMandFPMshipmentdeclineonweaksmartphonedemand2CCMandFPMASPdeclineGPMwasdown55ptsYoYto39dueto1sluggishdemandgivenmacroheadwindsandintensifiedcompetitionweighonUTRandASP2increaseinunitmanufacturingcostonfallingUTR3IoTandautoCCMbusinessesatmarketdevelopmentstagewithlowUTR4FXfluctuationledtoincreaseincostofmaterialsimportedandsettledinUSDNetprofitmarginwasRMB170mndown803YoYin-linewithprofitwarningEPSwasRMB145centsdown802YoY2023Guidance32MandaboveCCMsalesvolumemixof35vs30inFY22Non-smartphoneCCMsalesgrowthof50YoYCompactCameramoduleCCMMobileCCMshipmentinFY22was422mnunitsdown124YoYNon-smartphoneCCMshipmentwas66mnunitsup1227YoYTotalshipmentof116YoYdeclinewasaboveindustrydeclinewithcontinuousmarketsharegainASPwasRMB296down158YoYvsRMB352inFY21duetoChinesehigh-endproductsalesmixdropHigh-end32Mandabovesalesmixof30down17pptsYoYonhigh-endsmartphoneinventoryadjustmentbutsalesgrowthisunderrecoveryOLSandperiscopearethetwokeydriversinhigh-endsmartphonesin2H23EandFY24EFingerprintmoduleFPMShipmentinFY22was112mnunitsdown27YoYASPwasRMB95down348YoYvsRMB146inFY21OtherhighlightsfromthecallStabilizedFXrateispositiveonGPMrecoveryinFY23E2023Capexplancontinuousinvestmentinautocapacitycautiousonsmartphonecapacityexpansionstrengthennon-smartphonedevelopmentandautomationupgradeVRpancakelensmoduletargetmassproductioninFY23EPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE315Mar2023FY22ResultsreviewFigure7EarningsrevisionConsensusCMBIRMBmnFY18FY19FY20FY21FY22YoYFY22EDiffFY22EDiffRevenue813513170174001866313759-2614872-715207-10GrossProfit353118017711762541-69900-40824-34OperatingProfit7062010461039204-80302-33337-40Netprofit14542840863170-80338-50273-38EPSRMBcents13476719732145-80273-47232-37GrossMargin43901029439-55ppt61-21ppt54-15pptOperatingMargin0947605615-41ppt20-06ppt22-07pptNetMargin0241484612-34ppt23-1ppt18-06pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesEarningsRevisionLowerFY2324EEPSby8-27toreflectslowerrecoveryWeloweredFY23EEPSby8afterfactoringinon-goinginventorycorrectionin1H23Eandgradualdemandrecoveryin2H23EOurEPSinFY23Eis-11belowconsensusformoreconservativemarginsFigure8EarningsrevisionNewOldChangeRMBmnFY23E2024E2025EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue1508016658200361517617579--1-5-Grossprofit11801427180712371751--5-18-Operatingprofit62281110656761100--8-26-Netprofit511688905557939--8-27-EPSRMB431581764471793--8-27-Grossmargin72869082100--1ppt-14ppt-Operatingmargin4149534563--03ppt-14ppt-NetMargin3441453753--03ppt-12ppt-SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure9CMBIestimatesvsconsensusCMBIConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23E2024E2025EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue150801665820036163731842421161-8-10-5Grossprofit118014271807132817181907-11-17-5Operatingprofit6228111065628927981-1-129Netprofit5116889055858201024-13-16-12EPSRMB431581764486699865-11-17-12Grossmargin728690819390-09ppt-08ppt0pptOperatingmargin41495338504603ppt-02ppt07pptNetMargin344145364548-02ppt-03ppt-03pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE415Mar2023Figure10PLforecastRMBmnFY19FY20FY211H222H22FY22FY23EFY24ERevenue13170174001866370956664137591508016658YoY61932173-240-285-26396105Costofsales11990156301690167196499132181390015231Grossprofit11801771176237616654111801427GPM90102945325397286YoY2341501-05-653-756-6931180210SGA1431791847878156151167ofrev-11-10-10-11-12-11-10-10RD396590642261209470498550ofrev-30-34-34-37-31-34-33-33Operatingprofit6201046103918519204622811OPM4760562603154149YoY7848689-07-736-944-8042056304Profitofassociates402352-18-18372030Netprofit5428408631665170511688NPM4148462301123441YoY3666754927-715-983-8032001347SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure11RevenuebreakdownRMBmnFY19FY20FY211H222H22FY22FY23EFY24ECCMRevenue10360152021687565026059125611378215281YoY654711-23-29-261011Shipmentmn406392479213211424438464YoY54-322-5-17-1236ASPRMB255387352305287296315330YoY752-9-19-13-1665FPMRevenue275921011675551513106411641243YoY51-24-20-40-32-3797Shipmentmn102921155161112123129YoY-5-1025-93-3105ASPRMB27122814610984959597YoY58-16-36-34-34-3502Others51971124292134134134YoY66911610701900Total13170174001866370956664137591508016658YoY62327-24-29-261010SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE515Mar2023ValuationMaintainBUYwithnewTPofHK5220upsideOurnewTPofHK52isstillbasedon10xFY23EPEWeremainpositiveonnon-handsetCCMincludingautomotiveandARVRtodriveearningsgrowthinthelongrunUpcomingcatalystsincludeproductlaunchesautoclientwinsandshipmentrecoveryFigure12PeersvaluationMarketCapPriceTPUpDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EQtech1478HKBuy652432520203148810093798FITHonTeng6088HKBuy1960211266261028807077078AACTech2018HKHold252616541562-621515108083751SunnyOptical2382HKHold1181784559630143122203632115144Tongda698HKBuy13901102296372801012330BYDE285HKHold579920202039124814716156499TKGroup2283HKBuy16815833811439300706186207FIH2038HKNR807080NANA-170---28Truly732HKNR399099NANA------SMIC981HKNR267391722NANA9824409099937YOFC6869HKNR28531472NANA86720908108114JuTeng3336HKNR219143NANA------Cowell1415HKNR17741658NANA2301732925183203Average16312813129299SourceBloombergCMBIGMFigure1312MforwardPEbandFigure1412MforwardPBbandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE615Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue174001866313759150801665820036Costofgoodssold156301690113218139001523118229Grossprofit17711762541118014271807Operatingexpenses724723338558616741Sellingexpense262314232530Adminexpense153161142128142170RDexpense590642470498550661Others4410428890100120Operatingprofit104610392046228111065ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV235237203030Others543060555055Pre-taxprofit9709571075877911040Incometax130946376103135Minorityinterest000000Netprofit840863170511688905BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets788293158594108931042814871Cashequivalents19841743134962919331892Accountreceivables358944463436520343407138Inventories194322581184243615313217STbankdeposits267811919919919919Othercurrentassets100571705170517051705Non-currentassets352137333691380139264143PPE296031443140325033753591Intangibles42026262626Othernon-currentassets557569525525525525Totalassets114031304812285146941435519014Currentliabilities7276807972499249835912295Short-termborrowings110417082616238126342967Accountpayables601362594584681956769278Taxpayable774912121212Othercurrentliabilities826438383838Non-currentliabilities000000Deferredincome138200248248248248Othernon-currentliabilities2507777Totalliabilities7617834375189518862812564Sharecapital999999Otherreserves377646904753516257126436Totalshareholdersequity378647054767517657276451Minorityinterest000000Totalequityandliabilities114031304812285146941435519014PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE715Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation9709571075877911040Depreciationamortization413544640644708785Changeinworkingcapital21771017324783624881Others000000Netcashfromoperations3604159611944262071865InvestingCapitalexpenditure523155811497548331002Others000001247Netcashfrominvesting69688011497548331002FinancingDividendpaid10700102138181Netborrowings1015604908235253333Others193154660555055Netcashfromfinancing13159428483926697NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear4121984174313496291933Exchangedifference21141288000Cashattheendoftheyear19841743134962919331892GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue3217326396105203Grossprofit501056931180210266Operatingprofit689078042056304313Netprofit549278032001347315PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin1029439788690Operatingmargin605615414953ReturnonequityROE25320336103126149GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx020003030102Currentratiox111212121212Receivableturnoverdays8927861045104510451045Inventoryturnoverdays450454475475475475Payableturnoverdays139513251497149714971497VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE128153314886550PB282811090807Divyield540000233140EV378584705247674517615726764505EVSales020303030303SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE815Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE9
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