研究报告全文:MN15Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSunnyOptical2382HKFY22EpreviewBumpyrecoveryin2023TargetPriceHK9251SunnywillreportitsFY22resultson21MarWeestimaterevenuenetprofittoPreviousTPHK9251decline2152YoYlargelyin-linewithprofitwarningdown50-55YoYUpDownside94announcedearlierGivenrecentAndroiddestockingandappleordercorrectionCurrentPriceHK8455weexpectHCMHLSshipmentweaknesstopersistinto1H23EInadditionwebelieveNEVsalesslowdownwillweighonVLSdemandinFY23EDespiteChinaTechnologybumpyrecoveryin2023wearepositiveonVCMperiscopeARVRtodriveAlexNGgrowthinlongertermMaintainHOLDwithSOTP-basedTPofHK925185239000881implying236xFY23EPEalexngcmbicomhkFY22previewHCMHLSdraggedbysmartphonedemandweaknessLilyYANGPhDWeestimateFY22Erevenuenetprofittodecline2152YoYmainlydue85239163716toweaksmartphonedemandandcamerade-spectrendBysegmentwelilyyangcmbicomhkexpectHCMHLSrevenuetodrop2317YoYonAndroidweaknessandHanqingLIVLSrevenuewillclimb16YoYdrivenbystrongADASadoptionWelihanqingcmbicomhkestimatelowerGPMof206onhighermaterialcostandlowutilizationStockDataHCMHLSExpectasoft1H23EonhighbaseSunnysFebHCMHLSMktCapHKmn927514shipmentremainedsluggishwith3926YoYdeclinevs-19-49inAvg3mthstoHKmn974Janwhichreaffirmedourviewthatdemandweaknesswillpersistin1Q23E52wHighLowHK144606755WeexpectflattishHCMHLSshipmentin1H23EonhighbaseandinventoryTotalIssuedSharesmn10970SourceFactSetcorrectionShareholdingStructureVLSExpectshipmentslowdownin1H23EWhileVLSFebshipmentSunXuLtd355wasup40YoYvs22inJanweexpectNEVsalesslowdownwillJPMorganChaseCo49SourceHKExaffectorderdemandin2023givensubsidyexpiryandslowerADASpenetrationAssuchweexpectslowershipmentgrowthin1H23EbutASPSharePerformancehikedrivenbyhigh-endcameraproductsAbsoluteRelative1-mth-146-64Fivekeyquestionsformgmtatinvestormeeting1HLSmarketshare3-mth-105-85andupgradewithUSmajorcustomer2periscopecamoutlookinAndroid6-mth-152-170camp3SunnysviewonVLSdemandgivenslowerglobalautosales4SourceFactSetautomoduleorderwinsandcapacityexpansionand5ARVRoutlookgiven12-mthPricePerformancemajorcustomerweaknessOurFY22-24EEPSare15-20belowconsensusMaintainHOLDTradingat23x19xFY2324EPEwethinkthestockisfairlyvaluedWhilewearepositiveonSunnysindustryleadershipproductroadmapandopportunitiesinautocameraVCMARVRwebelieveinventorydestockingandhighexposuretohandsetsegment70ofsalesvs10forauto-SourceFactSetrelatedwillremaintheoverhangforthestockMaintainHOLDwithSOTP-basedTPofHK9251EarningsSummaryRelatedReports1ShipmentweaknesslikelytoYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24Epersistinto1Q23EMaintainHOLDRevenueRMBmn380023749729813322133778111Jan2023linkYoYgrowth041320580173NetprofitRMBmn49503506112454236255440502SoftHLSHCMinAugStillYoYgrowth23222515477215awaitingturningpoint13Sep2022EPSReportedRMB447457220326396linkConsensusEPSRMB000457271376486PEx2553833372281883ShipmentguidanceloweredasexpectedAwaitingmarketrecoveryPBx749236322817Aug2022linkYield0605060910ROE335268112149160Netgearing46161221216302SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk15Mar2023FocusChartsFigure1SunnyOpticalrevenuetrendFigure2SunnyOpticalGPMtrendRMBmn464000050504404524154283500040453983954035134830000303501735Thousands26725000203024682302222242282520720000010-1201471411371241221331261311261500001511510510611296849310000-20-101055000-2000-302019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E200820092011201220142015201620172018201920202010201320212023EOthersAutoLens2022EHandsetLens3DsensingOpticalComponentsOptoelectronicProductsCameraModulesYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3SunnyHCMshipmenttrendFigure4SunnyHLSshipmenttrendmnunitmnunit20192020202120222023201920202021202220237018016060140501204010030308060812040102000JulJulAprOctAprOctJanJunJanJunFebMarFebMarAugSepDecNovAugSepDecNovMayMaySourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5Sunnynext-genhandsetcameraproductsFigure6SunnyopportunitiesinvehiclecamerasSourceCounterpointCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE215Mar2023FY22ResultsPreviewFigure7FY22resultspreviewCMBIConsensusRMBmnFY19FY20FY21FY22EYoYFY22EDiffRevenue37849380023749729813-2032424-8Grossprofit7751869887366164-296604-7Operatingprofit4806587758513117-4728589Netprofit3991488249932411-522824-15EPSRMB365447457220-52252-12Grossmargin205229233206-27ppt20402pptOperatingmargin127155156105-52ppt8816pptNetmargin10512813381-52ppt87-06pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure8FY22revenuebreakdownRMBmn1H212H211H222H22EYoYFY21FY22YoYOpticalcompVLSHLS37745042386453185881591814Autolensshipmentmnunit2228213629505612ASPRMB416347368428233784067HandsetlensShipmentmnunit553778946454884412134321529814ASPRMB52454240-114841-14OptoelectronicHCM11680170691487413620-202874828494-1HCMshipmentmnunit215325269324054059310ASPRMB468484530390-20478453-5Opticalinstruments1221631262002328532615TotalRevenue15575222741886419138-14378493800204GrossMarginOpticalcompVLSHLS441461415437-24ppt452428-24pptOptoelectronicHCM5911711114226ppt9312633pptOpticalinstruments41241438646349ppt413392-21pptBlendedGPM18421919526243ppt20522924pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure9CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue298133221337781330633784743861-10-15-14Grossprofit6164702184156817827510142-10-15-17Operatingprofit311743645272316143365434-11-3Netprofit241135614327302241785239-20-15-17EPSRMB220326396271376486-19-13-18Grossmargin20721822320621923101ppt-01ppt-08pptOperatingmargin1051351409611512409ppt21ppt16pptNetmargin8111111591110119-11ppt0ppt-05pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE315Mar2023Figure10PLforecastRMBmnFY20FY211H222H22EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue38002374971697212841298133221337781YoY04-13-144-273-20580173Costofsales29304287611344910200236492519229366Grossprofit8698873635222642616470218415GPM229233208206206218223YoY12204-288-303-294139199SGA1032103260143710389441077ofrev-27-28-35-34-35-29-29RD2499264214681092256023842758ofrev-66-70-87-85-86-74-73Othergainloss698252698252537205-Operatingprofit5877585117981319311743645272OPM155156106103105135140YoY223-04-463-474-467400208Netprofit4882499313581053241135614327NPM128133808281111115YoY22323-495-543-517477215SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure11MajorassumptionsFY20FY21FY22EFY23EFY24EShipmentvolumemnunitOpticalComponentsHandsetlenssets15301440119312741401YoY14-6-17710Vehiclelenssets56687994113YoY1221161920OptoelectronicProductsHandsetcameramodules593674517544598YoY1014-23510Otheroptoelectronic3Dsensing41595173106YoY-1845-144545OpticalInstrumentsMicroscopicinstruments195258320352387YoY-132241010RevenueRMBmnOpticalComponents9181877690491082312767OptoelectronicProducts2849428334204082105124641Opticalinstruments326387357339373TotalRevenue3800237497298133221337781YoY04-13-20580173GrossMargin229233206218223OpticalComponents428395348350350Optoelectronicproducts126137106112119Opticalinstruments392451448455455SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE415Mar2023ValuationMaintainHOLDwithTPofHK9251WemaintainHOLDwithTPofHK9251Wederivedour12-monthTPfromSOTPvaluationmethodologyandourTPisbasedonweighted-averagetargetPEmultipleof236xFY23EEPSinordertoreflect1Sunnysdiversificationinmultiplebusinesseswithdifferentgrowthprofilesand2visibilityofproductupcyclesacrossdifferentsegmentsWeassign15xPEtoitsCCMbusinesstoreflectitsChinaNo1positionproductupcycleandadvancedtechnologycapacityWeassign35xPEforitsvehiclelensbusinesstoreflectthehigh-marginandhigh-growthindustrynatureofvehiclelens25CAGRFY20-23EandSunnysNo1globalmarketshareWeapplya25xPEtoitshandsetlenssegmentgivensecularupgradetrendandcontinuedsharegainsfrompeersFigure12SunnyOpticalSOTPvaluationBusinesssegmentofFY23EProfitFY23EEPSRMBTargetPECameramodules33711015xHandsetlenses45014725xVehiclelenses19306335xOthers2100725xTotalRMBImpliedPE326236xTPHK9251SourcesCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure13PeersvaluationMarketUpCapPriceTPDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23ESunnyOptical2382HKHOLD11816846925193372283632112149Qtech1478HKBUY65243520202589010093798Cowell1415HKNR17731658NANA2301732925183203Truly732HKNR399099NANA------Catcher2474TTNR433518550NANA10217908088446Largan3008TTNR10171233000NANA1311732019154114Lite-on2301TTNR57357420NANA1211212321190176Primax4915TTNR9176100NANA100961516163160O-film002456CHNR2351496NANA--3644-132Average1791502222133101SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure1412MforwardPEbandFigure1512MforwardPBband10018901680147012601050840630420102002014201520162017201820192020202120222014201520162017201820192020202120221-yrForwardPEMean1-yrForwardPBMeanMean1SDMean-1SDMean1SDMean-1SDSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE515Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue378493800237497298133221337781Costofgoodssold300982930428761236492519229366Grossprofit775186988736616470218415Sellingexpense279313274266235283Adminexpense650719758772709793RDexpense220924992642256023842758Others205698789558670691Operatingprofit480658775851311743645272ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV6019222NetInterestincomeexpense250224230240264291Pre-taxprofit455056535640287941014983Incometax531703579424476578Minorityinterest286868436478Netprofit401949505061245436264405Netdividends623799974470695844BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets224462563027989240353170131571Cashequivalents1917284256057285780711123Accountreceivables963082127448500384517328Inventories514657835482229359893665STbankdeposits212381112111211121112FinancialassetsatFVTPL566384808314831483148314Othercurrentassets697428282828Non-currentassets8247980910785119791294213627PPE65677513830395501049711144Othernon-currentassets168022952481242924452483Totalassets306933543838774360144464345198Currentliabilities1263013411118737129128289822Short-termborrowings111920711539153915391539Accountpayables113221073398695163108497816Othercurrentliabilities5622922315493221821942726021Non-currentliabilities533652016005600560056005Long-termborrowings00700700700700Othernon-currentliabilities533652015305530553055305Totalliabilities179671861217879131341883315827Sharecapital105105105105105105Otherreserves124481649220483224232529028773Totalshareholdersequity127261682620895228792581029371Minorityinterest173229307351415493Totalequityandliabilities306933543838774360144464345198PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE615Mar2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation455056435640287941014983Depreciationamortization122715701638175320532353Changeinworkingcapital14771152009281457413Others361168499170216298Netcashfromoperations466271606979539044817451InvestingCapitalexpenditure276022712498300030003000Others79637055400000Netcashfrominvesting355659762902300030003000FinancingDividendpaid623796974470695844Netborrowings38210170000Sharerepurchases1701510000Others2662912215240264291Netcashfromfinancing144122212417109591135NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear225419172842560572857807Exchangedifference2378358000Cashattheendoftheyear1917284256057285780711123GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue460041320580173Grossprofit57812204294139199Operatingprofit56222304467400208Netprofit60023222515477215PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin205229233207218223Operatingmargin127155156105135140ReturnonequityROE365335268112149160GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx010002020203Currentratiox181924342532Receivableturnoverdays765857762762762762Inventoryturnoverdays498681681600600600Payableturnoverdays111513741374116011601160VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE240255383337228188PB747492363228Divyield060605060910EV127262168261208953228792258100293710EVSales030406080808SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE715Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8
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