研究报告全文：16Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicsPerspectiveChinaEconomyRecoverywasunderwayChinaseconomyheldasteadycourseonitswaytorecoverinthefirsttwoBingnanYEPhDmonthsServiceactivityhousingmarketandinfrastructureinvestmentallbeat85237618967expectationswhileindustrialoutputwasbelowtheconsensusasexportsyebingnancmbicomhkslumpedSMEswerecautiousoncapacityinventoryexpansionandruralKevinZhangmigrantworkersreturnedtocityfactorieslaterthanusualWemaintainChinas85253364682GDPgrowthforecastat54for2023asretailsalesandserviceconsumptionkevinzhangcmbicomhkshouldbethemostimportantdriversforeconomicresumptionthisyearWeslightlyreviseuptheFAIgrowthforecastfor2023from47to5ashousingYoY2YCAGRfor202130marketrecoveryshouldbebetterthanexpectedChinasexportsofgoodsareexpectedtodrop35in2023butdownsideriskexistsduetooverseas20recessionanddisinflationThesharplyinvertedyieldcurverecentfailureofUS10SiliconValleyBankandplungeofglobalbanksstockpricesallindicatea0recessionmaycomesoonChinahastomaintaineasingcreditpolicytoboost10domesticdemandThePBOCwillkeepmoneymarketratesmoderately2030fluctuatingarounditsreporefinancingratesin2Q23andmayeaseliquidity20192020202120222023supplyin2H23asdomesticeconomicrecoveryslowswithoverseasrecessionRetailsalesFAIExportsofgoodsChinaeconomyresumesastherecoverypacevariesbysectorSourceWindCMBIGMYoY2YCAGRfor2021-IndustrialoutputwasbelowexpectationsastheYoYgrowthofvalueadded10industrialoutputVAIOslowedfrom36in2022to24in2M23Thesharp5declineofexportscautiousattitudeofsmallmediummanufacturersand0latereturnofruralmigrantworkersafterChineseNewYearholidayhashurttheindustrialoutputWenoteruralretailsalesgrew45YoYin2M23higher5thanthegrowthofurbanretailsalesat34indicatingruralmigrantworkers10returnedtocityfactorieslaterthanusual1520192020202120222023-BothserviceactivityandhousingmarketperformanceweremuchbetterthanVAIOServiceoutputindexSourceWindCMBIGMtheconsensusthankstotherapidreopeningandeasingcreditpolicyTheserviceoutputindexrose55YoYin2M23afterdropping01YoYin2022HousingsalesandstartssignificantlyimprovedasgrossfloorareaGFAsoldforcommoditybuildingsandGFAstartedrespectivelydropped36and94YoYin2M23afterplunging243and394YoYin2022-Retailsalesslightlybeatexpectationsbypickingup35YoYin2M23afterdropping02YoYin2022SpendingonmedicinecateringpetroleumproductsandfoodwasverystrongwhilethatonalcoholtobaccoclothingcosmeticsgoldjewelryfurnitureandconstructiondecorationmaterialsnoticeablyimprovedHoweverretailsalesinautocommunicationequipmentandculturalofficegoodsfurtherdeterioratedwithsharpYoYdeclines-FixedassetinvestmentFAIwasbetterthanexpectedasitsYoYgrowthrosefrom51in2022to55in2M23Propertydevelopmentinvestmentdropped57YoYin2M23afterdeclining10in2022Infrastructureinvestmentstronglypickedup122YoYin2M23afterrising115YoYin2022Manufacturinginvestmentgrowthwassolidwithslightslowdownfrom91in2022to81in2M23WemaintaintheGDPgrowthforecastfor2023at54withretailsalesandserviceGDPexpectedtogrow68and62respectivelyPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk16Mar2023-RetailsalesandserviceconsumptionshouldbethemostimportantdriversforChinaseconomicresumptionthisyearTrafficflowandoutgoingactivityhasresumedquicklyafterthereopeningsupportingastrongrecoveryofconsumptionintransporttravelcateringhotelrecreationclothingfootwearandpersonalcareCateringrevenuejumped92YoYin2M23afterdropping141YoYinlastDecemberRetailsalesinalcoholtobaccoproductsclothingfootwearandcosmeticsrespectivelypickedup6154and38YoYin2M23comparedtotheYoYdeclinesof73125and193inlastDecember-ThehousingmarketrecoveryhasbeenbetterthanexpectedthankstoaccommodativecreditpolicyconfidenceimprovementandareleaseofpostponeddemandbythelockdownsItshouldbepositiveforhouseholddurableslikefurnitureandhomeappliancestartedtorecoverAutosalesmayalsograduallyreboundaseconomyfurtherimprovesandproducersstarttostimulatedemandbyloweringpricesElectronicequipmentmaybethelastsectortorecoverasconsumerincomeandconfidencefurtherimproves-UrbanemploymentconditionandconsumerconfidenceshouldgraduallyimproveTheslightdeclineofurbansurveyedunemploymentrateinFebruarycomparedtolastDecemberwasbecausemostSMEswerestillcautioustoexpandemploymentandsupplycapacityWhileruralmigrantworkersreturnedtocitiesittooklongerforthemtofindajobthanusualWeslightlyreviseuptheFAIgrowthforecastfor2023from47to5-PropertydevelopmentinvestmenthasrecoveredfasterthanexpectedItsperformanceshouldbebetterthanthemarketconsensus-3-5YoYfor2023-InfrastructureinvestmentwasalsostrongerthanourexpectationsBysectorFAIinpublicutilityrailwaytransportationandpublicfacilitymanagementjumped254178and112YoYin2M23comparedtotheYoYincreasesof19318and101in2022ChinaisbuildingitsnewenergysupplysystemwithhugeinvestmentinalternativepowergenerationthermalpowerfacilityasbackupinemergencyandsmartgridMeanwhilethefixedinvestmentinrailwaytransportationandmetrofacilityisrecoveringalongwiththesignificantimprovementoftrafficflowandmobilityHowevertheFAIinwaterconservancyandhealthsocialwelfarehassharplysloweddownLookingforwardinfrastructureinvestmentgrowthmayslowfrom115in2022to8in2023duetobaseeffectaswellasthepolicymakersconcernaboutlocalgovernmentcontingentdebtrisk-ManufacturinginvestmentgrowthwasinlinewithexpectationsByindustrytheinvestmentinrawchemicalmaterialsandnon-ferrousmetalsboomedthankstoChinaslowenergycostandsupplychainadvantageAutoelectricalequipmentcomputerelectronicequipmentandspecialequipmentalsomaintainedstrongFAIgrowthasChinacontinuedtoconsolidatethesupplychainadvantageandupgradethefactorieswithnewtechnologyandequipmentinthosesectorsLookingforwardweexpecttheFAIgrowthinmanufacturingmayslowfrom91in2022to6in2023duetobaseeffectandoverseasrecessionTheinvestmentinhigh-endequipmentshouldremainstrongthisyearWeexpectChinaexportsofgoodstodrop35in2023duetooverseasrecessionanddisinflation-Industrialdeliveryvalueforexportsdropped49YoYin2M23afterrising55YoYin2022Theexportsofgoodsrose09YoYin2M23downfromPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE216Mar2023thegrowthof7in2022WiththepricefactordeductedtheexportsvolumeshouldmaintainYoYdeclinesinthefirsttwomonths-Globaleconomywillseearecessionwithdisinflationin2023withthesharplyinvertedyieldcurvestherecentfailureoffewsmallbanksintheUSandplungeofglobalbanksstockpricesastheearlywarningindicators-WeexpectChinaexportsofgoodstodrop35in2023afterrising7in2022TheYoYgrowthratesofexportsforthefourquartersareexpectedtobeat-9-6-3and25respectivelyChinawillmaintaineasingcreditpolicytosupportdomesticdemandresumption-WhiletheproactivefiscalpolicyisbelowexpectationsChinascreditpolicyshouldbeveryaccommodativethisyearThecentralbankhastomaintaineasingcreditpolicytorelievedebtriskandboostthegrowthPropertydevelopersLGFVsandSMEsstillfaceliquiditypressurewhileChinasGDPgrowthremainsbelowthepotentialgrowthasthereflationisverymild-ThemoneymarketratehikeinthepasttwomonthswasmainlybecauseofasharpincreaseofloansupplywhichpushedupliquiditydemandwhilethePBOCbecamecautionsonfurtherliquiditylooseninginfaceofstrongnewcreditandbetter-than-expectedhousingmarketin2M23AsmoneymarketratesrosetoabovethePBOCsreporefinancingratestheadditionalupsideroomshouldbelimitedWeexpectmoneymarketratesmaymildlyfluctuatearoundthereporefinancingratesinneartermAsdomesticrecoverypacemayslowwithoverseasrecessionafterafewmonthsweexpectthecentralbankmayeaseliquidityconditionin2H23PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE317Mar2023Figure1ChinaEconomicIndicatorsYoY2019202020212022Jan-Feb23GDP60238430VAIO5728963624-Mining5005530647-Manufacturing6034982021-Publicutility70201142224Deliveryvalueforexports13031775549Serviceoutputindex69001310155GFAsoldforcommoditybuilding01261924336GFAstartedforcommoditybuilding851211439494UrbanFAIYTD5429495155-Propertydevelopment99704410057-Manufacturing31221359181-Infrastructure333402115122Retailsales80391250235Exportsofgoods05362997009Importsofgoods27063011129SourceWindCMBIGMestimatesFigure2PropertyMarketIndicatorsFigure3HousingSalesbyCityYoY2YCAGRfor202113011090705030101030507020162017201820192020202120222023Tier1citiesTier2citiesTier3citiesSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure4FundingSourceforPropertyInvestmentFigure5FAIbySectorYoY2YCAGRfor202125155515253520192020202120222023PropertyInfrastructureManufacturingSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE416Mar2023Figure6FAIinAgricultureMiningSocialserviceFigure7FAIinInfrastructureSectorsSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure8FAIinManufacturingIndustriesIFigure9FAIinManufacturingIndustriesIISourceWINDCMBIGMFigure10HouseholdIncomeHousingRentFigure11ConsumerConfidenceYoY2YCAGRfor2021index10465684465444252240022017201820192020202120223850436486348461032Urbanhouseholdincomepercapita3044Ruralmigrantworkerincome201720182019202020212022HouseholdsavingrateConfidenceaboutincomeRentofCityHousingSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE516Mar2023Figure12UrbanSurveyedUnemploymentRatesFigure13EmploymentIndexindex65256060552055501550451045404053520182019202020212022202330UrbanUnemployedRateLHS20192020202120222023UrbanUnemployedRateforThoseAged16-24RHSManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMFigure14CateringOnlineRetailSalesFigure15RetailSalesofStaplesYoY2YCAGRfor2021352515551525354555201820192020202120222023CateringrevenueOnlineretailsalesSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMFigure16AutoElectronicRetailSalesFigure17HouseholdFurnitureApplianceRetailSalesSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE616Mar2023Figure18RetailSalesofNon-durablesFigure19MobilityIndexesinTier-1CitiesYoY2YCAGRfor2021index7DMAmn7DMA351945251840173515163015525142051312151511101052509035202020212022202320192020202120222023DailytrafficcongestionindexLHSCosmeticsClothingPetroleumproductDailysubwaypassengerflowRHSSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMFigure20CommodityBuildingSalesFigure21AutoSalesSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMFigure22VAIOinEnergySteelProductFigure23VAIOinCapitalGoodsAutoSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE716Mar2023Figure24VAIOinEquipmentFigure25PowerGeneratorsCoalConsumptionSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMFigure26ForeignTradeofSouthKoreaFigure27ChinaGDPGrowthSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE816Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE9