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>> 招银国际-Prudential Plc. (2378 HK) 15% APE growth in 2M23; Minimal exposure to US banking sector-230316
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研究报告全文:MN16Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdatePrudentialPlc2378HK15APEgrowthin2M23MinimalexposuretoUSbankingsectorTargetPriceHK14300PrudentialplcreportedinlineresultsforFY22withNBPexclHKup5YoYPreviousTPHK14300onconstantexchangeratesCERbasisThegroupNBPdeclined11onCERUpDownside314basisinFY22mainlydraggedbyinterestrateassumptionchangesExcludingCurrentPriceHK10880theimpactofnegativeeconomicassumptionchangestheinsurersgroupNBPdecreased4YoYinFY22ThetotalDPSforFY22grew9YoYto01878ChinaInsuranceUSIn2M23groupAPEgrowthofPruacceleratedto15YoYdrivenby1GigiCHENCFAupbeatMCVmainlandChinavisitorsbusinessmomentuminHK2robustnew85239163739businessgrowthinmainlandChinadrivenbymulti-channeldistributionofCPLgigichencmbicomhkand3continualpositivegrowthinIndonesiasince4Q22TheinsurerscapitalpositionremainedsoundwithGWSGPCRcoverratiostoodat302atend-NikaMAFY22LookingforwardweexpecttheinsurersrallyinHKMCVbusinessrobust85239000805nikamacmbicomhkgrowthmomentuminChinaJVandtherecoveryofIndonesiamomentumwillunderpinastrongVNBgrowththroughoutFY23ReiterateBUYStockDataMinimalexposuretoSVBandSignatureBankDuringtheanalystMktCapHKmn2990912Avg3mthstoHKmn1191briefingthemanagementindicatedthatamongPrusexposuretocorporate52wHighLowHK134806875debtofUSbankingsectoramountedtoUS11bnlessthan1ofitstotalTotalIssuedSharesmn27490investmentassetsAndamongtheUS11bnexposure95areallocatedSourceFactSettosystemicallyimportantbanksTheexposuretoSVBandSignatureBankShareholdingStructurespecificallywasonlyaboutUS1mnlessthan001ofPrusdebtholdingsBlackRock85UpbeatAPEmomentumin2M23In2M23theAPEgrowthofPrureachedVanguard56SourceHKEx15YoYonCERbasisupfrom10YoYin3Q22and11in4Q22WeexpectthenewbusinessgrowthtofurtheraccelerateinthecomingSharePerformancemonthsgiventhat1theMCVtrafficisstillontheriseeversincethefullAbsoluteRelativereopeningon6Feband2PruHKhasretainedsufficientsalesforceas1-mth-110-523-mth2617around10000outofits19000agentsarespecializedforMCVbusiness6-mth274234LimitedimpactfromIFRS179ThebookvaluewouldhaveincreasedSourceFactSetUS18-27bnunderIFRS917asofend-FY21duetoreleaseofprudent12-mthPricePerformancemarginsandchangesintimingsofprofitrecognitionwhiletheOPATFY22wouldhavedeclinedbyUS065-085bnThecontractualservicemarginCSMamountedtoUS25bnasofend-FY21whichwillunwindat9-10paTheIFRS17EquityAdjustedbookvalueCSMRiskadjustmentRelatedtaxstoodaroundUS43bnatend-FY21about10belowtheEEVValuationThestockisnowtradingat08xPEVFY24Eand19xPBVFY24EWebelievetherallyinHKMCVbusinessandtheuptickinmainlandChinaandIndonesiabusinessarepoisedfor20NBPgrowthin2023SourceFactSetEarningsSummaryRecentReportsYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25E1PrudentialPLC2378HK-Asia-focusNetprofitUSmn2042998306337984408leadingplayerborder-reopeningtailwindsin2023linkEPSReportedUS0780361111381602PrudentialPLC2378HK-StrongnewConsensusEPSUSnana113130147bizmomentumfromChinaJVlinkGroupembeddedvalue17241534163417281840shareUSPremiumincomeUSmn2237321401259653026735345AuditorKPMGLLPPremiumincomegrowth2343213166168PBx2222211917PEmbeddedvaluex0809080808Dividendyield1314415160ROE10859173196206SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk16Mar2023PRUNBPNBPmarginAPEgrowthonAERandCERbasisFigure1PRUFY22NBPNewBusinessmarginNBMAPEgrowthonAERandCERbasisSourceCompanydataCMBIGMPRUtradingbandof12MforwardPEVHistoricalavgPEVFigure2PRU12MforwardPEVbandFY18-FY23Figure3PRUshistorical2-yrand5-yravgPEVSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotethestockpriceisquotedbySourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotethestockpriceisquotedbymarketcloseat4pmon15Mar2023marketcloseat4pmon15Mar2023withthePEVTTMat084PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE216Mar2023FocusChartsFigure4PRUAsiaNBPNBPgrowth1H16-FY22Figure5PRUAsiaNBPbreakdownbycountrySourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure6PRUAsiaAPEAPEgrowth1H16-FY22Figure7PRUAsiaAPEbreakdownbycountrySourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure8PRUAsiaNBPmarginAPEbasissemi-annualFigure9PRUAsiaNBPmarginAPEbasisSourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE316Mar2023Figure10PRUAsiaEEVOPBTbreakdownbycountriesFigure11PRUGroupIFRSOPATOPATYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNoteOPBTstandsforIFRSSourceCompanydataCMBIGMoperatingprofitbeforetaxbreakdownbyeachoperatingmarketFigure12PRUGroupIFRSNPATNPATYoYFigure13PRUGroupInvestmentPortfolioinFY22SourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotetheyear-on-yearcomparisonSourceCompanydataCMBIGMisnotapplicablegivenanetlossofUS28bninFY21Figure14PRUAsiaNBPGrowthonAERCERbasisFigure15PRUAsiaexclHKNBPGrowthonAERCERbasisSourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE416Mar2023Figure16PRUAsiaEEVEEVYoYFigure17PRUAsiaEEVEquityEEVEquityYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure18PRUEEVbreakdownbycountryFigure19PRUAsiaANWANWYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNoteANWstandsforadjustednetworthFigure20PRUAsiaNetVIFVIFYoYFigure21PRUGroupLCSMSurplusYoYPCRbasisSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNoteVIFstandsforvaluein-forceSourceCompanydataCMBIGMbusinessPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE516Mar2023Figure22PRUGroupFreeSurplusGenerationYoYFigure23PrudentialAPEmarketshareinSEASourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNMGNoteDatasubjecttoFY21SEAmarketsrefertoThailandIndonesiaMalaysiathePhilippinesSingaporeandVietnamFigure24PRUChinaNBPYoY1H13-FY22semi-annualFigure25PRUChinaAPEYoY1H13-FY22semi-annualSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotetheyear-over-yeargrowthisSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotetheyear-over-yeargrowthisderivedonanactualexchangerateAERbasisderivedonanactualexchangerateAERbasisFigure26PRUChinaNBPmargin1H13-FY22semi-annualFigure27PRUHKNBPYoY1H13-FY22semi-annualSourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE616Mar2023Figure28PRUHKAPEYoY1H13-FY22semi-annualFigure29PRUHKNBPmargin1H13-FY22semi-annualSourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure30PRUIndonesiaNBPYoY1H13-FY22semi-annualFigure31PRUIndonesiaAPEYoY1H13-FY22semi-annualSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotetheyear-over-yeargrowthisSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotetheyear-over-yeargrowthisderivedonanactualexchangerateAERbasisderivedonanactualexchangerateAERbasisFigure32PRUIndonesiaNBPmargin1H13-FY22semi-annualFigure33PRUMalaysiaNBPYoY1H20-FY22semi-annualSourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotetheyear-over-yeargrowthisderivedonanactualexchangerateAERbasisPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE716Mar2023Figure34PRUMalaysiaAPEYoY1H20-FY22semi-annualFigure35PRUMalaysiaNBPmargin1H20-FY22semi-annualSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotetheyear-over-yeargrowthisSourceCompanydataCMBIGMderivedonanactualexchangerateAERbasisFigure36PRUSingaporeNBPYoY1H20-FY22semi-annualFigure37PRUSingaporeAPEYoY1H20-FY22semi-annualSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotetheyear-over-yeargrowthisSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotetheyear-over-yeargrowthisderivedonanactualexchangerateAERbasisderivedonanactualexchangerateAERbasisFigure38PRUSingaporeNBPmargin1H17-FY22semi-annualFigure39PRUOthersNBPYoY1H13-FY22semi-annualSourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotetheyear-over-yeargrowthisderivedonanactualexchangerateAERbasisPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE816Mar2023Figure40PRUOthersAPEYoY1H13-FY22semi-annualFigure41PRUOthersNBPmargin1H13-FY22semi-annualSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNotetheyear-over-yeargrowthisSourceCompanydataCMBIGMderivedonanactualexchangerateAERbasisPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE916Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecUSmnTotalincome36247265008219295393393239468Premiumswrittengross234952421723344282233289938418Premiumsearnednet218702237321401259653026735345Investmentincome13762348630159320032293614Otheroperatingincome615641539373435509Losses33585238349672254732888533607Selling288029762082736884669796Underwritingcommissions303592049511899179062022023612Otheroperatingexpense346363145199199199Operatingincomebeforeinterestexpense266226661453406750475861Operatingincomeafterinterestexpense266226661453406750475861Equityinaffiliatespretax51735229292929Pretaxincome317930181482409650765890Incometaxes711804475102412691472Consolidatednetincome246822141007307238074417Minorityinterest677719999Netincome24012985998306337984408Discontinuedoperations28350270000Netincomeavailabletocommon21182042998306337984408BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecUSmnAssetsCashshort-termIinvestments801871705514614368587692Investments196221831915210723172549Totalfixedincomesecuritiesinvestment1442991063978580095586106710119694Totalequitysecuritiesinvestment2786356160157679642587173680464Realestateassets916516456502553609Otherinvestments4466481569634708794Defferedtaxassets4858266310341375413Intangibleassets2034568587155768582888993Goodwill961907890890890890Otherassets51637127235654621968417525Totalassets516097199102165942184365205277229624LiabilitiesshareholdersequityInsurancepolicyliabilities436787150755121213136792154347174847STdebtcurrportionLTdebt1565112208873894321022111120Long-termdebt955972506077617762876408Provisionforriskscharges350372348383421463Defferedtaxliabilities607528622872315934753823Otherliabilities255568391956797851002010285Totalliabilities493978181838148815165729184771206947Commonstockordinarycapital173182182182182182Capitalsurplus263750105006500650065006Retainedearnings144241021610810122941413516273Equityeeserves36441680962962962962Revaluationeeserves000000Totalshareholdersequity208781708816960184442028522423Minorityinterest1241176167192221254Totalequity221191726417127186362050622677Totalliabilitiesshareholdersequity516097199102165942184365205277229624PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1016Mar2023PERSHAREDATA2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecDPS016018019057071083EPSReported082078036111138160ConsensusEPSnanana094109122GroupembeddedvalueshareHK207017241534163417281840VNBshareHK085096080096114000Noofsharesbasic260927462750275027502750PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecReturnonequityROE10510859173196206ReturnonassetROA040605171920ReturnonlifeembeddedValue13131120635663VNBmarginFYPAPEbasis489602497500509527VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE170-38012410086PB172222211917Divyield121314415160SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1116Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE12
 
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