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>> 招银国际-Fixed Income Daily Market Update -230316
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研究报告全文:FixedIncomeCreditCommentary16Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketsflowswereactiveandskewedtosellInAsianIGspaceT2widened5-15bpswithheavysellonlowerratednamesKoreanIGnameswidenedGlennKoCFA高志和10-15bpsForAT1HSBC8ralliedc1ptthismorningafterSwissNational85236576235BankshowedsupporttoCSLGFVwerebetterofferwhileSOEperpswereglennkocmbicomhkbetterbuyLPKRIJRaisedtendercapandacceptedUSD120mnintenderoffersLPKRIJswereunchangedthismorningSeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkChinaEconomyRecoverywasunderwayCMBImaintainChinasGDPgrowthforecastat54for2023SeebelowforcommentsfromoureconomicresearchJerryWang王世超85237618919Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点jerrywangcmbicomhkAsiaIGspaceopened5-15bpstighteryesterdayFlowswerebalancedthoughactivitiesonfront-endpaperspersistedtobecautiousandratherilliquidInChinaSOEslongendofSINOPECNOOCCHIOLIperformedstronginlightofthepull-backinUST10yyieldsHAOHUAtightened10bpsInTMTsbenchmarknameswerealsofirmthoughhighbetatechnameswerebetterofferedTENCNTcurvegrinded10bpstighterwithits30squotedatT165FinancialsspaceopenedfirmasovernightriskandratestabilizedabitAMCswerestabletoatouchweakerwithbettersellingonORIEASCCAMCLHRINTHBankT2swereinitiallytradedinabettertonetotighten10-25bpsbutclosed5-10bpswiderasmarketturnedtorisk-offagainamidheadlinesofCSdebacleTheCStopholderSaudiNationalBankruledoutinvestingmorestakesThistriggeredawaveofriskoffsellingNewBNKEA27wasfirsttraded20bpstightertoT230underPBsAMsbuyingbutwidenedtoT245CICCHK26oncetightened15-20bpstoT7977fromTueclosebutclosedonly6bpstighterWesawIGspreadsroughlyretrieved5-15bpsfromtheintra-daytightpostCSheadlinesChinapropertyspacewasmixedwithbenchmarknamesperformedrelativelystabletoatouchweakerVNKRLEsYUEXIUswereunchangedwithtwo-wayinterestsCOGARDsFUTLANsFTLNHDsweretraded05-1pthigherSINOCEsweremarkeddown05-15ptsGRNLGR25-27sfell2-45ptsandreststayedrange-boundbetweenmid-40stolow-50sIndustrialnamesFOSUNIswere025pthigherFosunfinallysignedagreementtosellitsstakesinNangangInIndianspaceVEDLNsgained05-15ptsandrenewablesGRNKENswerealso05-1pthigherIndonesiannamesLMRTSPsdropped1-15ptsIntheAsiaAT1PerpLGFVspacessentimentsignificantlydeterioratedpostCSheadlineswiththeliquidrecentissueHSBC8PerpunderthespotlightThispaperswerefirstsqueezedaggressivelyhigherovernighttoopenatmid-99andwentupto1005giventhePBdemandandHFRMshortcoveringThefreshCSwoesrenewedselloffsneardayendTheHSBCAT1PLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk116Mar2023retracedtolow-to-mid-99inaflurryofsellingoutofLondonintoregionalPBbuyersElsewhereinAT1spaceoldHSBCandSTANLNpaperswerelargelybetterbidfromregionalPBsThainamessuchasBBLTBKBANKperpswerequoted025-05pthigherWhilstChinesenamesremainedroughlystablethoughretracedatouchinlightofsmallRMsellingInPerpsCTIH64Perpclimbedto101thankstoRMbuyingthatabsorbedprofittakingflowsotherwiseSOEandHKseniornameswerebetterofferedWhilstFFLperpswereflatwithdemandfromPBsLGFVswereundersmallbettersellingintothequarterendledbystructuredproductsunwindingandRMtrimmingfront-endpositionsLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeAIA41203164693232GRNLGR618042225465-45TAISEM41204225297426GRNLGR634030326447-38AIA47803114498423GRNLGR59021225485-22SINOPE4609124896023BNKEA578PERP940-21JMHLDS21204093186122LMRTSP714061924671-20MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketswereweakyesterdaySP-070Dow-087andNasdaq005weredraggedbyfinancialsectorwhilethemarketsentimentsstabilizedabitafterSwissNationalBanksaidtoprovideliquiditytoCreditSuisseUSFebPPIis44yoyandlowerthanthemarketforecastof52TheUStreasuryyieldsoveralldownyesterdaythe251030yieldsreached393359351370respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点LPKRIJRaisedtendercapandacceptedUSD120mnintenderoffersLippoKarawaciraisedthetendercaptoUSD120mnfromUSD50mnforitsLPKRIJ25and26itreceivedUSD2423mnvalidtenderintotalforthetwobondsbeforetheexpirationdeadlineIthasacceptedUSD323mnforLPKRIJ25andUSD877mnforLPKRIJ26at87and77respectivelyItwasthesecondtenderofferofthecompanyYTDInJan23thecompanycompletedthetenderofferofUSD116262mnandUSD108466mnforLPKRIJ25and26at84and74respectivelyThetworoundsoftenderofferreducedUSDdebtsbyUSD3447mnintotalfromUSD822mnat11Janwhenthefirsttenderofferin2023wasannouncedInparticularthedueforLPKRIJ25isloweredtoUSD2371mn41decreasefromtheUSD405mnreportedbeforetheJan23tenderThiswouldhelptoalleviatetherefinancingandcashflowpressurein2024tomeetthedueinJan25RecalledthatLippoKarawaciobtainedIDR6tncUSD388mnsyndicatedloantorefinanceitsUSDnotesduein2025and2026itusedcUSD280mninthesetworoundsoftenderofferandcUSD96mnofcreditfacilityisremainingAmountUSDmnOsamountCurrentYTMBondConsiderationacceptedintenderUSDmnpriceAskAskLPKRIJ8125012225873232371860172LPKRIJ675103126778771947757158Total1204318SourceBloombergcompanyannouncement216Mar2023ChinaEconomyRecoverywasunderwayChinaseconomyheldasteadycourseonitswaytorecoverinthefirsttwomonthsServiceactivityhousingmarketandinfrastructureinvestmentallbeatexpectationswhileindustrialoutputwasbelowtheconsensusasexportsslumpedSMEswerecautiousoncapacityinventoryexpansionandruralmigrantworkersreturnedtocityfactorieslaterthanusualWemaintainChinasGDPgrowthforecastat54for2023asretailsalesandserviceconsumptionshouldbethemostimportantdriversforeconomicresumptionthisyearWeslightlyreviseuptheFAIgrowthforecastfor2023from47to5ashousingmarketrecoveryshouldbebetterthanexpectedChinasexportsofgoodsareexpectedtodrop35in2023butdownsideriskexistsduetooverseasrecessionanddisinflationThesharplyinvertedyieldcurverecentfailureofUSSiliconValleyBankandplungeofglobalbanksstockpricesallindicatearecessionmaycomesoonChinahastomaintaineasingcreditpolicytoboostdomesticdemandThePBOCwillkeepmoneymarketratesmoderatelyfluctuatingarounditsreporefinancingratesin2Q23andmayeaseliquiditysupplyin2H23asdomesticeconomicrecoveryslowswithoverseasrecessionChinaeconomyresumesastherecoverypacevariesbysectorIndustrialoutputwasbelowexpectationsastheYoYgrowthofvalueaddedindustrialoutputVAIOslowedfrom36in2022to24in2M23ThesharpdeclineofexportscautiousattitudeofsmallmediummanufacturersandlatereturnofruralmigrantworkersafterChineseNewYearholidayhashurttheindustrialoutputBothserviceactivityandhousingmarketperformanceweremuchbetterthantheconsensusthankstotherapidreopeningandeasingcreditpolicyTheserviceoutputindexrose55YoYin2M23afterdropping01YoYin2022HousingsalesandstartssignificantlyimprovedasgrossfloorareaGFAsoldforcommoditybuildingsandGFAstartedrespectivelydropped36and94YoYin2M23afterplunging243and394YoYin2022Retailsalesslightlybeatexpectationsbypickingup35YoYin2M23afterdropping02YoYin2022SpendingonmedicinecateringpetroleumproductsandfoodwasverystrongwhilethatonalcoholtobaccoclothingcosmeticsgoldjewelryfurnitureandconstructiondecorationmaterialsnoticeablyimprovedHoweverretailsalesinautocommunicationequipmentandculturalofficegoodsfurtherdeterioratedwithsharpYoYdeclinesFixedassetinvestmentFAIwasbetterthanexpectedasitsYoYgrowthrosefrom51in2022to55in2M23Propertydevelopmentinvestmentdropped57YoYin2M23afterdeclining10in2022Infrastructureinvestmentstronglypickedup122YoYin2M23afterrising115YoYin2022Manufacturinginvestmentgrowthwassolidwithslightslowdownfrom91in2022to81in2M23WemaintaintheGDPgrowthforecastfor2023at54withretailsalesandserviceGDPexpectedtogrow68and62respectivelyRetailsalesandserviceconsumptionshouldbethemostimportantdriversforChinaseconomicresumptionthisyearTrafficflowandoutgoingactivityhasresumedquicklyafterthereopeningsupportingastrongrecoveryofconsumptionintransporttravelcateringhotelrecreationclothingfootwearandpersonalcareCateringrevenuejumped92YoYin2M23afterdropping141YoYinlastDecemberRetailsalesinalcoholtobaccoproductsclothingfootwearandcosmeticsrespectivelypickedup6154and38YoYin2M23comparedtotheYoYdeclinesof73125and193inlastDecemberThehousingmarketrecoveryhasbeenbetterthanexpectedthankstoaccommodativecreditpolicyconfidenceimprovementandareleaseofpostponeddemandbythelockdownsItshouldbepositiveforhouseholddurableslikefurnitureandhomeappliancestartedtorecoverAutosalesmayalsograduallyreboundaseconomyfurtherimprovesandproducersstarttostimulatedemandbyloweringpricesElectronicequipmentmaybethelastsectortorecoverasconsumerincomeandconfidencefurtherimproves316Mar2023UrbanemploymentconditionandconsumerconfidenceshouldgraduallyimproveTheslightdeclineofurbansurveyedunemploymentrateinFebruarycomparedtolastDecemberwasbecausemostSMEswerestillcautioustoexpandemploymentandsupplycapacitywhileruralmigrantworkersreturnedtocityfactorieslaterthanusualWenoteruralretailsalesgrew45YoYin2M23higherthanthegrowthofurbanretailsalesat34WeslightlyreviseuptheFAIgrowthforecastfor2023from47to5PropertydevelopmentinvestmenthasrecoveredfasterthanexpectedItsperformanceshouldbebetterthanthemarketconsensus-3-5YoYfor2023InfrastructureinvestmentwasalsostrongerthanourexpectationsBysectorFAIinpublicutilityrailwaytransportationandpublicfacilitymanagementjumped254178and112YoYin2M23comparedtotheYoYincreasesof19318and101in2022ChinaisbuildingitsnewenergysupplysystemwithhugeinvestmentinalternativepowergenerationthermalpowerfacilityasbackupinemergencyandsmartgridMeanwhilethefixedinvestmentinrailwaytransportationandmetrofacilityisrecoveringalongwiththesignificantimprovementoftrafficflowandmobilityHowevertheFAIinwaterconservancyandhealthsocialwelfarehassharplysloweddownLookingforwardinfrastructureinvestmentgrowthmayslowfrom115in2022to8in2023duetobaseeffectaswellasthepolicymakersconcernaboutlocalgovernmentcontingentdebtriskManufacturinginvestmentgrowthwasinlinewithexpectationsByindustrytheinvestmentinrawchemicalmaterialsandnon-ferrousmetalsboomedthankstoChinaslowenergycostandsupplychainadvantageAutoelectricalequipmentcomputerelectronicequipmentandspecialequipmentalsomaintainedstrongFAIgrowthasChinacontinuedtoconsolidatethesupplychainadvantageandupgradethefactorieswithnewtechnologyandequipmentinthosesectorsLookingforwardweexpecttheFAIgrowthinmanufacturingmayslowfrom91in2022to6in2023duetobaseeffectandoverseasrecessionTheinvestmentinhigh-endequipmentshouldremainstrongthisyearWeexpectChinaexportsofgoodstodrop35in2023duetooverseasrecessionanddisinflationIndustrialdeliveryvalueforexportsdropped49YoYin2M23afterrising55YoYin2022Theexportsofgoodsrose09YoYin2M23downfromthegrowthof7in2022WiththepricefactordeductedtheexportsvolumeshouldmaintainYoYdeclinesinthefirsttwomonthsGlobaleconomywillseearecessionwithdisinflationin2023withthesharplyinvertedyieldcurvestherecentfailureoffewsmallbanksintheUSandplungeofglobalbanksstockpricesastheearlywarningindicatorsWeexpectChinaexportsofgoodstodrop35in2023afterrising7in2022TheYoYgrowthratesofexportsforthefourquartersareexpectedtobeat-9-6-3and25respectivelyChinawillmaintaineasingcreditpolicytosupportdomesticdemandresumptionWhiletheproactivefiscalpolicyisbelowexpectationsChinascreditpolicyshouldbeveryaccommodativethisyearThecentralbankhastomaintaineasingcreditpolicytorelievedebtriskandboostthegrowthPropertydevelopersLGFVsandSMEsstillfaceliquiditypressurewhileChinasGDPgrowthremainsbelowthepotentialgrowthasthereflationisverymildThemoneymarketratehikeinthepasttwomonthswasmainlybecauseofasharpincreaseofloansupplywhichpushedupliquiditydemandwhilethePBOCbecamecautionsonfurtherliquiditylooseninginfaceofstrongnewcreditandbetter-than-expectedhousingmarketin2M23AsmoneymarketratesrosetoabovethePBOCsreporefinancingratestheadditionalupsideroomshouldbelimitedWeexpectmoneymarketratesmaymildlyfluctuatearoundthereporefinancingratesinneartermAsdomesticrecoverypacemayslowwithoverseasrecessionafterafewmonthsweexpectthecentralbankmayeaseliquidityconditionin2H23416Mar2023ClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFShengzhouInvestmentUSD-3yr68---NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere156creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB126bnAsforMonth-to-date1194creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB1004bnraisedrepresentinga139yoyincreaseCENCHICCREremittedfundstotrusteetocuremissed13FebUSDcouponwithingraceperiodLOGPHMediareportedthatLogansworkingdraftterm-outproposalforUSD362bnoffshoredebtincludesamortizationandtheaveragelifeofnotesisnomorethan525yearsLZDCIDGuangxiLiuzhouDongchengInvestmentDevelopmentcompletessettlementofoverdueRMB25474mpaymenttoChinaIndustrialInternationalTrustMONMINMongolianMiningCorprepurchasedUSD2616mof925seniornotesdue2024fromopenmarketSHIMAOShimaounitgotoneyearextensionforRMB970mnnotesdue16Mar23VEDLNVedantaResourcesrepaidUSD100mnloanfromStandardChartereditsunitrepaidUSD150mnfacilityfromBarclaysMeanwhileMediareportedthatVedantaResourcesisseekingtoraiseuptoUSD1bnfromcreditfundsincludingAresSSGCapitalDavidsonKempnerandFarallonCapitalfordebtrepaymentsYUZHOUYuzhouGroupexpectsrevenuedown12yoytoRMB267bnandgotUSD175bnlossinFY22ZGCHGIMediareportedthatJiangsuLiyangHigh-techZoneisaskingtheholdersofZGCHGI62092725torefrainfromexercisingaputoptionandexpectstocompleteUSDbondsecurityregistrationsoon516Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6
 
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