研究报告全文：16Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaAutoSectorAtroughintheshorttermOUTPERFORMMaintainChinaAutoSectorChinaspassenger-vehiclePVretailsalesvolumerose11YoYinFeb20234lowerthanourpriorforecastWholesalevolumealsorose11YoYlastSHIJiCFAmonth13higherthanourpriorprojectionagainlargelyduetoinventory85237618728restockingandhigherexportvolumePVexportssurged86YoYtoaboutshijicmbicomhk271000unitsinFeb2023DOUWenjingCFAAutomakersinChinaaddedabout131000unitsofinventoriesintotheirdealers85269394751inFeb2023basedonourcalculationswhichhasledto22monthsofinventoriesdouwenjingcmbicomhkbasedonourprojectedretailsalesvolumeforMarandApr2023WeestimateGUSijietheinventorylevelfornew-energyvehiclesNEVsisabout25monthsafterjasongucmbicomhkadding670000unitsofinventoriestodealersinthepast12monthsunitsChinawholesalevolumebymonthInventoryriskcouldbelargelypricedinaftersell-offWehavebeen3000000warninginvestorsaboutinventoryriskformonthsandthebubbleburstlast2500000weekwhenmoreautomakersjoinedpricewarwithconcernsraisedbyinventoriesofvehicleswiththeChinaVI-aemissionstandardsWeareofthe2000000viewthattheshiftbetweenChinaVI-atoChinaVI-battheendofJun2023is1500000differentfromtheshiftbetweenChinaVtoChinaVIattheendofJun20191000000BackthattimesomeChineseautomakersjustfulfilledthetechnological500000requirementafewmonthsbeforethedeadlineandsomeautomakersJanMarMayJulSepNovspeculatedthattheimplementationofChinaVIcouldbedelayedBothissues20192020202120222023donotexistthistimeBasedonourchannelcheckswithafewbrandsChinaSourceCAAMCPCACMBIGMVI-ainventoriesarewellmanageableWehadprojectedarange-tradingunitsmarketforautonamesin2023andwebelievenowcouldbeashort-term3000000Chinaretailsalesvolumebymonthtroughinthevolatilemarket2500000Mar2023outlookRetailsalesvolumeinthefirst12daysofMar2023fell200000014YoYWeprojectretailsalesvolumeinMar2023torise6YoYto1500000157mnunitsamidlowbaselastyearduetoShanghailockdownWeexpect1000000wholesalevolumetoalsorise6YoYto198mnunitsassumingcontinued500000stockrestockingItappearstousthat1Q23salesvolumeonbothwholesaleJanMarMayJulSepNovandretailbasiscouldbeatouroriginalforecastsmadeinDec2022We20192020202120222023believethatmarketalreadyhasanexpectationthatvehicleconsumptioncouldSourceCATARCCMBIGMbeweakerthanotherconsumptionin1H23andrecoverycouldstartin2H23StocksCoveredBasedonourchannelcheckscustomerflowhasrisentoareasonablelevelTPNameTickerRatingwhereastheconversionratiofromcustomerflowtonewordersremainslowLCLiAutoLIUSBUY44LiAuto2015HKBUY172WealsoprojectNEVmarketsharetobe34inMar2023onaretailbasisNIONIOUSBUY21XpengXPEVUSBUY18thehighestinhistorywhichmakesourMarNEVretailsalesvolumeforecastXpeng9868HKBUY70as053mnunitsGeely175HKBUY165GWM2333HKBUY13GWM601633CHBUY32LeadingindicatorsforNEVbrandshavebeenimprovinggraduallyGAC2238HKBUY8LeadingindicatorsincludingnumberofleadscustomerflowandnewordersGAC601238CHBUY167EVA838HKBUY3forTeslaNIOLixiangXpengBYDandAionroseMoMinFeb2023basedMeidong1268HKBUY25BYD1211HKHOLD230ondatafromasamplesizeof96storesin15majorcitiesThatisoneoftheBYD002594CHHOLD240reasonswhyweprojecthistorical-highNEVmarketshareinMar2023LiAutoSourceBloombergCMBIGMledtheMoMgrowthfortheseleadingindicatorswiththeL7debutRelatedReportsChinaAutoSectorInventoryriskcouldleadtoabumpyrecovery15Feb2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk16Mar2023ContentsCompanyWatchList3GreatWallMotor3Geely3BYD4GuangzhouAutomobileGroup4LeadingIndicators8NumberofleadsLiAutojumped30MoM8CustomerflowRoseMoMexceptforXpengandAion8NewordersroseformostNEVbrandsledbyLiAuto9NEVSegment11WhenwillNEVmakersstartdestockingamid25-monthinventories11NEVbycity-tierNEVmarketsharerosethemostintier-3cities11NEVbycitytypeCitieswithoutICErestricitionsgainmarketshare12NEVbymodelWulingHongguangMinirecoveredfromlargedecline13BEVbrandsBMWretainedtheNo7placeYTD14PHEVbrandsFewerforeignbrandsinthetop10list15OtherIndustryIndicatorstoWatch17PVbycitytierHigher-tiercitiesoutperformedpostSpringFestival17Chinese-brandtrailing12-monthmarketsharereached44417Traditionalluxuryoutperformedforsixmonthsinarowonlowbase18PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE216Mar2023CompanyWatchListGreatWallMotorGreatWallswholesalevolumeincludingpick-uptrucksfell4YoYtoabout68000unitsinFeb2023underperformingtheoverallindustrys11YoYincreaseRetailsalesvolumeofPVsandpick-uptruckscombinedfell8YoYtoabout59000unitslastmonthleadingtoaninventoryreductionofabout4800unitsathirdconsecutivemonthofdestockingGreatWallwasoneoffewChineseautomakerswhichcutinventoriesinFeb2023WeestimateGreatWallsinventoryleveltobeabout116000unitsor15monthsbasedontheaverageretailsalesvolumeinthepastthreemonthsAlthoughitslowinventorylevelpaveswayforGreatWallsplethoraofupcomingnewmodelswebelieveits16mn-unitsalestargetfor2023isstilltooaggressiveWemaintainourfull-yearforecastof125mnunitsSimilartoGeelyhowsuccessfulGreatWallsnewPHEVswouldbein2023couldbekeytoGreatWallsvaluationinourviewThecompanyintroduceditsnewhybridtechnologyHi4on10Mar2023butnonewNEVmodelshavebeenreleasedyetDiscountsatdealerscontinuedtowidenMoMto16-monthhighbasedonourcalculationsWeexpectGreatWallsdiscountsatdealerstocontinuewideningbeforenewmodelsplayameaningfulcontributionFigure1GreatWallMotordiscountsatdealersFigure2GeelydiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMGeelyGeelyswholesalevolumerose39YoYtoabout109000unitsinFeb2023withtheGeometryseriesalmostdoubleddrivenbythePandaminiEVNEVsaccountedfor21ofGeelystotalsalesvolumelastmonthRetailsalesvolumeatGeelyrose6YoYtoabout76000unitslastmonthGeelyaddedinventoriesofabout16000unitsintodealersinFeb2023whichpusheditsinventoryleveltoabout22monthsbasedonourestimatesAlthoughGeelysaveragediscountsatdealersnarrowedMoMinFeb2023duetoasmallerportionofsalescontributionfromagingmodelsdiscountsformostindividualmodelswidenedMoMatGeelysdealersItraisedthediscountsfortheEmgrandLPHEVsignificantlyinFebinordertocompetewithBYDWeexpectGeelysdiscountstowidenfurtherinMar2023astheautomakerhasraiseditsrebatesfordealersespeciallyfortheXingyueLXingruiandPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE316Mar2023BoyueLbasedonourchannelchecksWemaintainourFY23salesforecastof153mnunitsBYDBYDsPVwholesalevolumerose112YoYtoabout190000unitsinFeb2023BYDsretailsalesvolumerose109YoYtoabout146000unitslastmonthwhichledtoaninventoryrestockingofabout31000unitsAlthoughBYDstillhasordersbacklogofabout15monthsbasedonchannelcheckswecalculateBYDsinventoriesatdealershaveincreasedbyabout220000unitsinthepast12monthsWeestimateBYDsinventorylevelatdealerstobeclosetotwomonthsnowBYDsdealersannouncedpricediscountsofRMB6000-10000duringlateFebtoMar2023whichwasinlinewithourpriorexpectationgivenitsslowerorderintakeandpricecutsfromitsrivalsincludingTeslaWehaveconfirmedwiththecompanythatBYDhasnotraisedrebatestodealersyetSuchdiscountscouldleadtoverythingrossprofitforBYDsdealersBYDmayneedtoraiseincentivestodealersifitwantstocontinuebuildinginventoriesBYDhasbeenexpandingitsmodelmixwithwiderpricerangesinordertowithstandthecompetitionItspremiumbrandYangwangdebutedthefirstmodeltheU8inJan2023ItalsolaunchedtheredesignedQinPlusPHEVwiththelowestpriceofbelowRMB100000inFeb2023ThenewordersofthenewQinPlusexceeded32000unitswithinsevendaysWemaintainourFY23PVsalesforecastof245mnunitsforBYDorabout200000unitspermonthonaveragewhichismoreconservativethaninvestorsexpectationofabout3-4mnunitsin2023WebelievesuchmonthlyvolumeforecastisinlinewithBYDsneworderintakeinrecentmonthsFigure3BYDdiscountsatdealersFigure4GACTrumpchiAiondiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMGuangzhouAutomobileGroupTotalwholesalevolumeatGACGrouprose12YoYinFeb2023largelyinlinewiththeindustryaverageSalesvolumeincreaseatGACToyota26YoYwasoffsetbythesalesdeclineatGACHonda-28YoYGACMotorswholesalevolumerose71YoYtoabout55000unitsinFeb2023drivenbyGACAions353YoYgrowthRetailsalesvolumeofAionrose292YoYtoabout29000unitsleadingtoaninventoryincreaseof1300unitsasofFeb2023WeestimateAionaddedmorethan52000unitsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE416Mar2023ofinventoriestoitsdealersinthepast12monthsresultinginaninventorylevelofaboutthreemonthsThatisthemainreasonwhyweonlyproject319000unitsforAionswholesalevolumein2023BothGACToyotaandGACHondaaddedinventoriesintodealersinFeb2023GACHondasinventorylevelexceededtwomonthsthehighestforatleastfiveyearsbasedonourcalculationsTheinventorylevelatGACToyotarosetoabout11monthsafteraddingabout4700unitsofinventorieslastmonthThatcouldprobablyexplainwhydiscountsforbothGACToyotaandGACHondawidenedinFeb2023Figure5GACToyotadiscountsatdealersFigure6GACHondadiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMFigure7BeijingBenzdiscountsatdealersFigure8BMWBrilliancediscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMDiscountsforBeijingBenzrosetoalmost15inFeb2023thehighestsinceatleast2017DiscountsforBMWBrilliancewidenedtoalmost16lastmonththehighestsinceDec2020PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE516Mar2023Figure9Chinapassenger-vehiclewholesalevolumebyOEMbrandSalesVolumeinFebSalesVolumeYTDYoYYTDMarketYoYMoM2023unitsYTDunitsShareChineseOEMs8871823571521664585-13536Geely10870138551212153-5768GreatWallMotor51053-13724100892-36233Changan112828588-54232086-1275SAIC-GM-Wuling54492-01113879976-42926SAIC58499-9250114197-13537BYD1916641123276341828842110GACMotorinclAion56968763667911476529Chery965927641319195841162Dongfeng20487-442-15844827-52714FAW7303645232612812113204BAIC76757893051355529604NIO121579834292066330907LiAuto16620975983176153610Xpeng6010-3515211228-41404Weltmeister0-10000-100000Neta1007341567416089-11205LeapMotor3198-6918084337-62401JinkangSeres35212319-2127990325903GermanBrands288161-43-05570083-225184VW126246-194-101266738-30786Audi39563-8725571081-33223BMW52871214-93111138-9436Mercedes-Benz5421227820899094-0932Jetta11001-275-0322032-31107JapaneseBrands255383-229181471600-390152Honda72538-37357141194-47746Toyota118053-6056229854-17074Nissan60008-20499490098-51929Mazda3863-563-407887-70803Mitsubishi330-909-7171498-79900AmericanBrands163680128177302720-12398Buick41437-1523974882-28024Chevrolet17720-13441130276-34610Cadillac9000-3330018000-49606Ford1728277326830909-1510Lincoln3839421-1208200-12803Tesla7440231712614045320745KoreanBrands27217-1214451002-22016Hyundai170033313132031-20910Kia10214-7816618971-23706Others22166-615743139-30914PSA5289-3129510119-51603Volvo1176656511122353-8007Jaguar1638-194-208370716501LandRover1973-60-207446011801Total16437891091263103129-1551000SourceCPCACMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE616Mar2023Figure10Chinapassenger-vehiclemonthlyretailsalesvolumebyOEMbrandRetailSalesRetailSalesVolumeYTDYoYMoMVolumeFeb2023UnitsYoYYTDUnitsChineseOEMsGeelyinclLynkcoGeometryMaple7046828-116150222-326Zeekr50898812919031500GreatWall42026-185-19894409-425Changan72918257-265172136-145SAICMotor20292-338-22746542-531GACTrumpchi20747183-11844280-205GACAion2879529162565368721011BYD1460881090184269523733SAIC-GM-Wuling57361-96187105688-312BAICMagna5745032161046-150Voyah75995-2781810-280NIO11904110218221971387Lixiang1700310319932473562Xpeng5872-4616810900-431Weltmeister278-916553457-924Neta855632372113527-164Leapmotor1285-62810791903-825HumanHorizons339-45646545-398JinkangSeres31712595-3164425481ForeignOEMsSAICVW72691-61-33147879-310FAWVW10740966-12216150-252BeijingBenz43766413-3188918-124BMWBrilliance46692421-11499412-195FAWToyota463613315886404-252GACToyota58532216106111477-215DongfengHonda31168-2952961447-499GACHonda34403-16322662460-490DongfengNissan40573-234-22092622-425GACMitsubishi1289-482-1212755-664SAICGM48411-1282395721-478ChanganFord8722-124-5517948-436TeslaChina3406440825261271399GACFCA4-994-71418-992VolvoAsiaPacific913128614617098-150CheryJLR42013844177165-45BeijingHyundai14013-78-31634493-341YuedaKia5252-237-11311172-468TotalVolumeexclimports1228768102-072466403-250ImportsbyBrandLexus10154-12512419185-348BMW8631392-7117919-246Mercedes-Benz13334561-5627458-59Porsche64981222-10513759253Audi43153755267142-162TotalImports5697237008113466-130TotalRetailSalesVolume1285740112-062579869-245SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE716Mar2023LeadingIndicatorsTheleadingindicatorsbelowincludingnumberofleadscustomerflowsandnewordersgeneratedforTeslaNIOLixiangXpengBYDandAionarebasedondatafromasamplesizeof96stores15-18storesforeachbrandin15majorcitiesinChinaNumberofleadsLiAutojumped30MoMNumberofleadsperstoreofLiAutojumped30MoMasofFeb2023drivenbytheL7debutNumberofleadsperstorefortheotherfivebrandswaslargelystableMoMinFeb2023from-2to2TeslasnumberofleadsperstoreisstillhighestamongallthesixbrandsTheconversionratiosfromleadstostorevisitremainedstableorincreasedslightlyMoMinFeb2023forthesixbrandswhichwererangedbetween10-12Figure11NumberofleadsperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMFigure12ConversionratiofromleadstostorevisitforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMCustomerflowRoseMoMexceptforXpengandAionCustomerflowperstoreforLiAutojumped46MoMinFeb2023aidedbytheL7launchSuchnumberrose3-7MoMforTeslaNIOandBYDbutfell4and7MoMforXpengAionrespectivelyinFeb2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE816Mar2023ThenewL7alsohelpedLiAutosconversionratiofromstorevisittoordergenerationsignificantlyfrom6inJan2023to9inFeb2023SuchratioremainedflatMoMfortheotherfivebrandsBYDstillhadthehighestratio10amongthesixbrandsinFeb2023Figure13CustomerflowperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMFigure14ConversionratiofromstorevisittonewordergenerationforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMNewordersroseformostNEVbrandsledbyLiAutoTheoverallnewordersforthesixbrandsroseMoMinFeb2023consistentwithourpriorargumentLiAutosnewordersperstoresurged136MoMlastmonthwhichcouldprobablypartiallyexplainasuccessfulnewmodelismuchmoreimportantthanpricecutsTeslasnewordersperstoreonlyrose29MoMinJan2023whenitcutretailpricesInfactLiAutosnewordersperstoresurpassedTeslatobecomethehighestamongthesixbrandslastmonthNewordersperstoreforTeslaNIOBYDandAionrose3-9MoMinFeb2023butdropped6MoMforXpengNewordersforXpenginMar2023couldbealeadingindicatorforhowsuccessfulthenewP7iwouldbePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE916Mar2023Figure15NewordersperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1016Mar2023NEVSegmentWhenwillNEVmakersstartdestockingamid25-monthinventoriesInFeb2023retailsalesvolumeofpassengerNEVsrose60YoYand35MoMtoabout400000unitsslightlyhigherthanourpriorforecastof390000unitsNEVsmarketshareroseto309asofFeb2023from227inJan2023amidpricecutsofsomeNEVbrandsandpostChineseNewYearrecoveryThetrailing12-monthNEVmarketsharerosefor32monthsinarowto274asofFeb2023Individualcustomersaccountedforabout77oftotalNEVretailsalesinFeb2023downfroma59-monthrecordhighof83inJan2023WeexpectsuchratiotobestablethisyearasNEVsubsidieswerephasedoutattheendof2022Figure16ProportionofNEVssoldtoindividualcustomersvsthatofICEvehiclesinChinaSourceCATARCCMBIGMWholesalevolumeofpassengerNEVsrose56YoYand27MoMtoabout500000unitsinFeb2023withamarketshareof302Weestimatethatabout31000unitsofinventoryNEVswereaddedintodealerslastmonthThatmakesusmoreworriedaboutthemarketvolatilityasabout670000unitsofNEVinventorieshavebeenaddedintodealersinthepast12monthsWeestimatethecurrentindustrywideNEVinventoryleveltobeabout25monthsbasedonourNEVsalesforecastsforthenextfewmonthsInfactthefigurecouldbeevenhigherforindividualNEVmakersbecauseabout18oftotalNEVssoldin2022werethroughdirect-salesmodelwhichissupposedtohaveminimalinventoriesNEVexportsrose71YoYand5MoMtoabout74000unitsinFeb2023Teslaaccountedfor55ofChinastotalNEVexportsfollowedbyBYDandMGBYDsNEVexportincreased44MoMtoabout15000unitsinFeb2023ShouldthemomentumcontinueBYDsexportthisyearcouldexceedourpriorexpectationNEVbycity-tierNEVmarketsharerosethemostintier-3citiesNEVmarketshareinallcitytiersonatrailing12-monthbasisroseMoMinFeb2023Themarketshareintier-2and-3citiesincreasedfasterthantier-1andtier-4andbelowcitiesEvery10PVssoldintier-1citiesinChinafourofthemarenowNEVsTheTeslaModelYsurpassedtheBYDSongPlusPHEVtobecomethebest-sellingNEVmodelagainintier-1and-2citiesinthefirsttwomonthsof2023TheWulingHongguangMinistilldominateslower-tiercitieswithdecliningmarketshare13intier-3andbelowPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1116Mar2023citiesinthefirsttwomonthsof2023vs15in2022Marketshareformini-sizeBEVshasbeenfallingasweexpectedMiniBEVsaccountedfor22oftotalBEVretailsalesvolumenationwideinthefirsttwomonthsof2023downfrom26in2022Figure17ChinaNEVmarketsharebycitytiertrailing12-monthbasisMarketShareAug2022Sep2022Oct2022Nov2022Dec2022Jan2023Feb2023Tier1344352358371384396399Tier2236245253263271283289Tier3196204211219228238244Tier4andbelow156163171178183194199Nationwide222231239249257269274SourceCATARCCMBIGMNEVbycitytypeCitieswithoutICErestricitionsgainmarketshareWedividedcitiesinChinaintothreetypesbasedonwhethertherearerestrictionsforICEvehicleregistrationordrivingInFeb2023only20ofNEVretailsalesvolumecamefromthesevenregionswithnewICEvehicleregistrationlimitsBeijingShanghaiShenzhenGuangzhouTianjinHangzhouandHainanprovincelargelystableMoMdownfrom24in2022mainlyduetoShanghaiscancellationofgreenlicenseforPHEVsfrom2023Shanghaiaccountedfor45ofnationwideNEVretailsalesinFeb2023downfrom64in2022DespitethatChinasPHEVretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthstilloutpacedBEVinFeb2023whichunderscoredourpreviousargumentthatShanghaisgreenlicensecancellationforPHEVsshouldhavelimiteddentonPHEVsAbout16ofNEVretailsalesvolumewasfromcitieswithdrivingrestrictionsincluding24citieslikeBaodingChongqingWuhanXianetcinFeb2023upfrom14in2022Theremaining64ofNEVretailsalesvolumewascontributedbycitieswithoutlicenseordrivingrestrictionsinFeb2023risingfrom62in2022Figure18NEVmarketsharebycitytypeSourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1216Mar2023Figure19NEVretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthcontributionbycitytypeinFeb2023SourceCATARCCMBIGMTianjinistheonlyoneofthesevenregionswithnewICEvehicleregistrationlimitsthatpostedNEVsalesvolumeYoYdeclineinFeb2023ShanghairetainedtheNEVretailsalescrownamongallcitiesinChinainFeb2023despiteonly1076unitsofPHEVsweresoldduringtheperiodShenzhenstillhadthelargestNEVmarketshare55amongallthecitiesinChinainFeb2023butwassurpassedbyHangzhouandfelltothethirdpositionintermsoftotalNEVretailsalesvolumeFigure20NEVretailsalesvolumeintop20citieswithcorrespondingNEVmarketshareinFeb2023SourceCATARCCMBIGMNEVbymodelWulingHongguangMinirecoveredfromlargedeclineRetailsalesvolumeofWulingHongguangMiniEVrose68MoMtoabout30000unitsinFeb2023thebest-sellingBEVmodelnationwidelastmonthWulingannouncedapricediscountofRMB3000foritsHongguangMiniEVon31Jan2023TheretailsalesvolumeoftheCheryeQ1amini-sizeBEVcontinuedtodropabout4500unitsYoYinFeb2023Anothermini-sizeBEVtheChanganBenbenE-Starshowedretailsalesvolumedeclineofabout4000unitsYoYinFeb2023TheirmarketsharemightbepartlygainedbyChanganLuminEVwhichpostedretailunitsalesYoYgrowthof11000unitsinFeb2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1316Mar2023Itappearstousthatthelow-endBEVmarketalsoshowsconsumptionupgradeassmall-sizeandcompactBEVsaregainingmarketsharefrommini-sizeBEVsBYDYuanBEVsincludingtheYuanPlusandYuanProcombinedpostedYoYunitgrowthofabout15000unitsinFeb2023BYDDolphinEValsopostedYoYgrowthofabout13000unitsinFeb2023Figure21NEVretailsalesvolumegrowthcontributionbymodelinFeb2023SourceCATARCCMBIGMBEVbrandsBMWretainedtheNo7placeYTDInFeb2023totalBEVretailsalesvolumerose48YoYand52MoMtoabout280000unitsBEVsmarketshareintheNEVsegmentdroppedto667inthefirsttwomonthsof2023from753in2022BYDandTeslasmarketshareincreasedto27and13intheBEVsegmentinthefirsttwomonthsof2023from20and11in2022respectivelyGACAionregainedthe4thplacefromNIOwhichslippedtothe6thplaceinFeb2023BMWretainedthe7thplaceintermsoftheBEVretailsalesvolumeinthefirsttwomonthsof2023afteritenteredthetop10listforthefirsttimeinJan2023About53ofBMWsNEVretailsalesvolumeinChinawascontributedbythei3inthefirsttwomonthsof2023Thecompetitionforthe6th-10thpositionsinChinasBEVsegmenthasbeenintensifiedTeslaWulingNetaCheryandXpengunderperformedtheoverallBEVsegmentinFeb2023intermsofYoYsalesvolumegrowthPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1416Mar2023Figure22Top10BEVbrandsretailsalesvolumeinChinaFebYTDMarketShareUnitsYoYYTDYTDYoY2023inBEVSegmentTotalBEV278232484460941761000BYD716141410123691780268Tesla3406440861271399133Wuling313277850219-166109GACAion28795291736868101180Changan1314710432254657249NIO1190411022197138748BMW5647325212135262526Neta744115111585-28425Chery6972-46611067-58824Xpeng5872-4610900-43124SourceCATARCCMBIGMPHEVbrandsFewerforeignbrandsinthetop10listInFeb2023totalPHEVEREVincludedretailsalesvolumerose98YoYand6MoMtoabout120000unitsPHEVsmarketshareintheNEVsegmentincreasedto333inthefirsttwomonthsof2023from247in2022inlinewithourpreviousforecastthatPHEVssalesvolumegrowthwouldoutpaceBEVsin2023BYDsmarketshareinthePHEVsegmentdroppedslightlyto58inthefirsttwomonthsof2023from61in2022HoweverBYDandDenzasmarketsharecombinedroseto63inthefirsttwomonthsof2023asBYD-controlledDenzabrandclimbedtothe3rdplacewithonlyonemodeltheD9onsaleLixiangsmarketshareinthePHEVsegmentroseto141inthefirsttwomonthsof2023from104in2022LiAutostarteddeliveriesofitsnewmid-tolarge-size5-seatSUVtheL7fromMar2023whichcouldfurtheraidthecompanyssalesvolumeandmarketsharein2023VWclimbedtothe4thpositioninthePHEVsegmentinthefirsttwomonthsof2023fromthe7thplaceinJan2023drivenbytheMagotanGTEabout3200unitsinFeb2023BMWdroppedtothe13thplaceinthePHEVsegmentYTDOnlytwoforeignbrandsMercedes-BenzandVWarestillinthetop10listvsfourlastyearNissanwasoutofthetop10inJan2023ChinesebrandscombinedmarketshareinthePHEVsegmentroseto893inthefirsttwomonthsof2023from871in2022WeexpectsuchtrendtocontinuebasedonthemodelpipelinePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1516Mar2023Figure23Top10PHEVEREVincludedbrandsretailsalesvolumeinChinaFebYTDMarketShareinUnitsYoYYTDYTDYoY2023PHEVSegmentTotalPHEV1184959802298367001000BYD67898849133742813582Lixiang17003103132473562141Denza630735669117431942351VW49861488720456731Deepal2316NA5658NA25Mercedes-Benz226195349707222Aito227416574893462421Changan2311979387976717Geely150543752475248111LynkCo976-2282089-36709SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1616Mar2023OtherIndustryIndicatorstoWatchPVbycitytierHigher-tiercitiesoutperformedpostSpringFestivalTotalPVretailsalesvolumerose11YoYanddropped06MoMto129mnunitsinFeb2023Tier-1and-2citiesoutperformedtier-3andbelowcitiesintermsofYoYgrowthinFeb2023amidpostChineseNewYeareffectAlthoughthecity-leveldentbytheCOVIDrecurrencelastyearcouldbeunpredictabletier-1and-2citiesweremoreresilientThepicturecouldbemixedthisyearinourviewFigure24ChinaautoretailsalesgrowthbycitytierRetailSalesAugSepOctNovDecJanFebYTDYoYGrowth2022202220222022202220232023Tier1246257168140132-486282-236Tier222411151-14132-432174-220Tier316541-84-23867-394-02-259Tier4andbelow46-29-161-194116-42829-284Nationwide17686-12-79115-428112-245SourceCATARCCMBIGMTheChineseNewYeareffectdominatedthecity-levelretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthinFeb2023inlinewithourexpectationinthereportpublishedon15Feb2023WeseenoindicationforfuturesalesvolumegrowthinthesecitiesbasedontheFebdataFigure25PVretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthcontributionbycityinFeb2023SourceCATARCCMBIGMChinese-brandtrailing12-monthmarketsharereached444RetailsalesvolumeforChinesebrandsrose21YoYinFeb2023outpacingtheoverallindustryby10pptsChinese-brandNEVretailsalesvolumerose64YoYinFeb2023outperformedtheoverallNEVsegmentby3pptsExcludingNEVsretailsalesvolumeofChinese-brandICEvehiclesfell8YoYinFeb2023weakerthantheoverallICEsegmentby6pptsThetrailing12-monthmarketshareforChinesebrandsroseto444asofFeb2023WeprojectChinesebrandstogainmarketshareforathirdconsecutiveyearin2023aidedbyNEVsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1716Mar2023Figure26Chinesebrandsmarketsharetrailing12-monthbasisSourceCATARCCMBIGMTraditionalluxuryoutperformedforsixmonthsinarowonlowbaseThetotalretailsalesvolumeoftraditionalluxurybrandsrose27YoYto021mnunitsinFeb2023outperformingtheoverallindustryby16pptsduetolowbaseWehavebeenexpectingaslightunderperformanceforluxurybrandscomparedwiththeoverallindustryin2023Luxurymarketshareonatrailing12-monthbasisincreasedto150asofFeb2023Figure27Chinatraditionalluxuryautomarketsharebycitytiertrailing12-monthbasisMarketShareAug2022Sep2022Oct2022Nov2022Dec2022Jan2023Feb2023Tier1212212213211209207208Tier2181182183184184183184Tier3102104106107108108110Tier4andbelow68697071727374Nationwide144145147148149148150SourceCATARCCMBIGMMercedes-BenzgrabbedtheNo1placefromBMWamongthetraditionalluxurybrandsinChinainFeb2023withabout3500unitsmorevehiclessoldTheGermanBigThreeMercedes-BenzBMWAudiaccountedformarketshareof745YTDupfrom72in2022ThecompetitionbetweenBMWandMercedes-BenzcouldbeinterestingagainthisyearasBMWhassetamoreaggressivesalestarget09mnunitsin2023vsMercedes-Benzs085mnunitsWearemorepessimisticthanbothbrandssalestargetsVolvoretainedthe4thplaceinFeb2023whichmaynotbesustainableinourviewThecompetitionbetweenLexusCadillacandVolvoforthe4thplacethisyearcouldalsobeintensifyingPorschetargetsaslightYoYsalesvolumedeclineto90000unitsin2023althoughweexpectedittobeoneoffewtraditionalluxurybrandstopostsalesvolumegrowthin2023Smartretainedthe10thplacewithitsSmart1EVrampingupPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1816Mar2023Figure28Top10traditionalluxuryautobrandsretailsalesvolumeinChinaFebYTDMarketShareinUnitsYoYYTDYTDYoY2023LuxurySegmentTotalLuxury209348275421901-1971000Mercedes-Benz58802433119669-114284BMW55323416117331-204278Audi402211877058-313183Volvo1085237920598-11349Lexus10154-12519185-34845Cadillac8831-8017211-43841Porsche649812221375925333LandRover6221551125076430Lincoln3943-649135-30022Smart3530NA6704NA16SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1916Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE20