研究报告全文：MN17Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateKeHoldingsBEKEUSB2Q23EwillbeanothermarketsurpriseTargetPriceUS2430BEKEsstrong1Q23guidanceandYTDdataprovedourhigher-than-marketPreviousTPUS2330salesforecastpublishedinJanuaryWeexpectthesalesgrowthtofurtherUpDownside381improvein2QandbeyondbasedonourleadingindicatorchannelcheckandCurrentPriceUS1760lowbase2023EEHTat20YoYTogetherwiththeamplificationeffectviaitsACNnetworkweexpect2324EadjustednetprofitstoachieveChinaInternetRMB6277bn1713higherthanconsensusnowReiterateBuyandraiseTPSaiyiHECFAtoUS243ADSCatalystssalesdatacontinuestobeatpolicyrelaxation85239161739hesaiyicmbicomhk4Q22asolidbeatBEKEdeliveredRMB155bnadjustedNPin4Q22muchhigherthanourandstreetexpectationofRMB07-1bnThebeatmainlycameJeffreyZENGfromthemarginexpansionto92NPMthankstoGTVrecoveryand85239163727improvingcommissionrateto314innewhomemarketIndetailBeikesjeffreyzengcmbicomhkexistinghometransactionEHTGTVwasRMB360bn15YoYwhilenewhometransactionrecordedRMB2635bn-26YoYbothYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkoutperformingthemarketServicefeesfromACNincreased252YoYtoRMB09bnMiaoZHANGStrong1Q23guidancenotasurpriseManagementexpectstotalrevenuezhangmiaocmbicomhkgenerationofRMB180-185bnin1Q23Ebasedontheassumptionof40YoYincreaseinGTVmarketEHTup60YoYandnewhomemarketupWentaoLU20YoYThisisactuallyinlinewiththecurrentmarketconditionthatEHTluwentaocmbicomhk52YoYWearemorepositiveonthesalessustainabilitytodriveBEKEsBellaLiearningsupsidein2023EOursalesleadingindicatormodelandrecentbellalicmbicomhkchannelcheckinmajorcitiessuggestssalesmomentumcontinuesasbuyersStockDataarestillbuyingearlierthanlateronstabilizedpropertypriceandhistoricallyMktCapUSmn208215lowmortgagerateFurthertoAprMaysalesarelikelytostaypositiveaswellAvg3mthstoUSmn179ontheverylowbaseAllthesewouldimplyastrong1HmarketThuswe52wHighLowUS2030977expectBEKEtodeliver294YoYincreaseinexistinghomenewhomeTotalIssuedSharesmn11830SourceFactSetrevenuebasedonthemarketassumptionof20inEHTand0innewhomemarketAlsoafterthetwosessionswethinktheoverhangofShareholdingStructurecommissionratecapriskisalmostgonePropitiousGlobal233TencentMobility100ACNnetworkwouldfurtheramplifythesolidmarketforconnectedSourceHKExstoresThestronger-than-expectedmarketwouldbenefitconnectedstoresSharePerformancemoregiventheirrelativelylowerefficiencyThereforethiswouldprovideAbsoluteRelativemoreservicefeesupsidesoweexpectittoincrease30YoYtoRMB45bn1-mth-93-42contributing20bottomlineAsforShengducompanywouldcontinueto3-mth232165investduetolargeroomimprovingtheconversionratefromBEKEplatform6-mth-46-36Wethinkitslosswouldnarrowin2023EonthesolidexistinghomesalesSourceFactSetReiterateBuyandRaiseTPtoUS243shareWeraised2324Erevenue12-mthPricePerformancebyboth6onhigherexistingandnewhomeGTVassumptionWealsoadjustedupNPby119toRMB6277bnOurSOTPmodelimpliesthenewTPofUS243ADSincludingUS233forBeikeCoreandUSD10forShengduandourTPisequivalentto3226x202324EPEnon-GAAPEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ESourceFactSetRevenueRMBmn8075260669734998094487273YoYgrowth14624921110178AdjustednetprofitRMBmn2294028428623137677386536AdjNPconsensusRMBmnNANA531616812594250EPSAdjustedRMB771194239524642PEx2048nana489330ROE0820425768SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk17Mar2023Managementguidance1CompanyforecastsindustrywideEHTGTVtoreach15YoYgrowthandnewhometransactiontobeflattishYoYin2023E2For1Q23EmanagementexpectsBEKEtodeliver60YoYincreaseinEHTGTVand20innewhomeGTVIndetailLianjiaislikelytorecord30YoYincreaseinEHTwhileconnectedstorescouldbook90YoYincreasegiventhelowerbase3TherewillbecertainamountofwriteoffreversaltotalRMb2bnbaddebtin2023EasmarketisimprovingjustlikeRMB206mnin20224CurrentlyBeikehasRMB835bncashonhandswhichisenoughforanyfinancialcrisisAlsotherewasnocashdepositinCreditSwissnorSVB5Shengdumanagementexpects2023Elossnolargerthan2022anditmayachievebreakeveninsomemonthsof2024EFigure1BEKEquarterlyfinancialresultsCMBIRMBbn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22DiffestimatesGTV1070122183173258664073764761552GrowthYoY22422-21-35-45-48-11-12Existinghometransaction67365237835537439444936034349GrowthYoY24412-34-39-44-40191Newhometransaction343498410357193223262264239101GrowthYoY19532-3-24-44-55-36-26BlendedmonetizationrateExistinghometransaction-01pptrevenueGTV151516171614161516Newhometransaction02pptrevenueGTV292828323130303130RMBbnRevenue207242181178126138176167148130GrowthYoY191201222394336Existinghometransaction1029661606255725353-07GrowthYoY2025313540431712Newhometransaction991391131135967788371164GrowthYoY1883221240523127Emergingandotherservices-olddisclosure060706050516263224335GrowthYoY965122115139334549Grossprofit485328292327484132293Operatingprofit1011-23-12-08-151204Contributionprofit6571454636416050Non-GAAPnetprofit1516-090001-061916071337Grossmargin23322115216418319727024421431pptOperatingprofitmargin4946-127-67-66-1106923-2448pptContributionprofitmargin313294246258287300340300Non-GAAPnetprofitmargin7368-490209-45107924547pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE217Mar2023Figure2BEKEforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbn2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025ERevenue7358098736957665757GrossProfit1782042261721993125OperatingProfit25456324425051Non-GAAPnetprofit627787567010591GrossMargin242251259248259-06ppt-08pptOperatingMargin345572355500ppt00pptNon-GAAPnetmargin859599819204ppt03pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCurrentConsensusDiffRMBbn2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025ERevenue5306-35735809873698805904GrossProfit33-09-28178204226172205233Non-GAAPnetprofit174129-81627787536894-04GrossMargin242251259246255257-05ppt02pptppt-05Non-GAAPnetmargin859599768510409ppt10pptpptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure4Newhomesalesgrew34YoYinMarchMTDSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE317Mar2023Figure5Existinghomesalesgrew100YoYinMarchMTDSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE417Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue704818075260669734998094487273Costofgoodssold536216493346888557316059064666Grossprofit168601581913781177672035422607Operatingexpenses140181717414614152461590016315SGAexpense113041323411920127501339413875RDexpense247831942546249625062440Others236747148000Operatingprofit28421355833252144546293Otherincome781170215691098878791Otherexpense2163719000Investmentgainloss473565512000ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV343745000Interestincome163355743101812161275Pre-taxprofit42231141292463765488358Incometax160916651690169221582585Aftertaxprofit26145251397294543915774Minorityinterest1111111111Netprofit26135241386295644025785Corenetprofit9225241386295644025785Adjustednetprofit572022942843623176778654BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets8753969926704258249791252101516Cashequivalents409702044619413306224041950570Restrictedcash856762866181649068157155Accountreceivables1318493254163477035243304Othercurrentassets248183386940667406144049540487Non-currentassets167563039338923378323824538818PPE14721972203714561179908Right-of-useassets6821724411284124121365415019Intangibles164311411687495021024Goodwill246718064934493449344934Othernon-currentassets43531823018981189811898118981Totalassets104296100319109347120329129497140334Currentliabilities336332893633341400594200444187Short-termborrowings0260619619619619Accountpayables65956009584397721062411339Othercurrentliabilities207281536114528167081757018705Leaseliabilities262627534972497249724972Contractliabilities73411023260326032603260Accruedexpenses295034514118472849585291Non-currentliabilities387043276952695269526952Long-termborrowings000000Othernon-currentliabilities387043276952695269526952Totalliabilities375033326340293470114895551138Sharecapital000000Retainedearnings9228984311406827338711914Otherreserves759937681780326814688430187181Totalshareholdersequity667656697468920731958043089095Minorityinterest2782134123112100Totalequityandliabilities104296100319109347120329129497140334PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE517Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation42231141292463765488358Depreciationamortization117411581089156916561684Taxpaid160916651690169221582585Changeinworkingcapital2991325948512021151095Others63540255866414822290Netcashfromoperations936235958461123541099411433InvestingCapitalexpenditure8871430680751827892Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments1319898765724000Others8921357820681006451Netcashfrominvesting14978248848472851891943FinancingNetborrowings72026019415182Proceedsfromshareissues000000Others261261334961000Netcashfromfinancing254061074115515182NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear319314953726732255943711247233Exchangedifference218444229000Cashattheendoftheyear495372673225594371124723357725GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue53214624921110178Grossprofit49662129289146111Operatingprofitnananana767413Netprofitnananana489314Adjnetprofit24545992391192232127PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin239196227242251259Operatingmargin401714345572Adjnetprofitmargin812847859599ReturnonequityROE530820425768GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx060303040506Currentratiox262421212223VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEna2048nana489330PEdilutedna2086nana489330PB282918201816PCFPS5631390158124141136SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE617Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7