研究报告全文：SWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorldPharmaceuticalsCompanyResearchCommercializationachievement16March2023BUYAkesobiotech09926HKUnchangedMarketData15March2023Akesoreported2022revenueofRmb838m271YoYandnetlossofRmb12bnvslossesofRmb11bnClosingpriceHK4290in2021beatingourexpectationThecompanysrevenuewasmainlyattributabletotheHSCEI6560commercialisationofpenpulimabAK105andcadonilimabAK104ItsRDexpensesandsellingand52-weekhighLowHK52601150distributionexpensesreachedRmb13bn18YoYandRmb553m208YoYin2022NowtheMarketCapHKm36081companyhassufficientcashofoverRmb50bnonhandConsideringtheupfrontpaymentforAK112PD-1VEGFfromSummitTherapeuticsandsalesrampupofcommercializedproductsweraiseourEPSSharesoutstandingm841forecastfrom-Rmb068toRmb212in23Efrom-Rmb042to-Rmb023in24EandforecastRmb054inExchangeRateRmb-HK08825EBasedontheDCFmodelweraiseourtargetpricefromHK450toHK550With28upsidewePricePerformanceChartmaintainourBUYrating350SalesrampupoftwokeyproductsSalesofcadonilimabAK104reachedRmb546min2022300CadonilimabAK104isthecompanyssecondcommercialisedproductwhichwasapprovedbytheNMPA250forthetreatmentofrecurrentormetastaticcervicalcancerRMCCinend-Juneof2022becomingthe200firstlaunchedbispecificproductinChinaInadditionthecompanyexpectstosubmittheNDAforthe150100cadonilimabs1LCCcombowithchemoin2023EAsforthelargeindicationscadonilimabscombowith50chemofor1LGCGEJhascompletedthepatientenrolmentforphaseIIIclinicaltrialwhichisexpectedto0havedatareadoutsin2023EInadditioncadonilimabisunderphaseIIIpatientenrolmentforHCC-50adjuvanttherapymonoAsforitsfirstlaunchedproductpenpulimabAK105salesofpenpulimabreachedRmb558m164YoYin2022PenpulimabAK105hasobtainedtheNMPAsapprovalforthe22-0322-0422-0522-0622-0722-0822-0922-1022-1122-1223-0123-0223-03treatmentof3LRRcHLand1Lsq-NSCLCapprovedinJanuary2023AkesobiotechHSCEIHILicense-outofoverseasrightsofivonescimabAK112PD-1VEGFInDecember2022AkesoreachedaSourceBloomberglicense-outagreementforitsivonescimabAK112PD-1VEGFwithSummitTherapeuticsNASDAQSMMTSummitTherapeuticsobtainedtherightstodevelopandcommercializeivonescimabAK112PD-Analyst1VEGFintheUnitedStatesCanadaEuropeandJapanAccordingtotheagreementAkesowillreceiveZhouWenyuananupfrontpaymentofUS500mandthetotalconsiderationisuptoUS50bnInthisMarchAkesohasA0230518110003receivedtheupfrontpaymentofUS500mfromSummitTherapeuticsprovidingsufficientfundforAkesosfuturepipelinedevelopmentNowAK112isunderdevelopmentforawiderangeofsolidtumourszhouwyswsresearchcominChinaincludingNSCLCieEGFR-TKIfailedPD-L1gastrointestinalcancerHNSCCbreastcanceretcAsfortheNSCLCAK112scombowithchemoforEGFR-TKIfailedNSCLChascompletedthephaseIIIclinicaltrialpatientenrolmentwhichisexpectedtofiletheNDAtotheNMPAin2023EInadditionAK112monoversuspembrolizumabisunderphaseIIIpatientenrolmentfor1LPD-L1NSCLCpatientswhichisexpectedtocompetethepatientenrolmentin2023EMeanwhileitisexpectedtoinitiateAK112sclinicaltrialsinoverseasmarketin2023EOutlookofotherpipelinesin2023Asforthenon-oncologyfieldsthecompanyexpectstohavetheNDAsubmissionsforebronucimabPCSK9AK102forthetreatmentofhypercholesterolemiaandHeFHandAK101IL-12IL-23fortreatmentofmoderate-to-severepsoriasisin2023EInadditionAkesoexpectsitsAK117ligufalimabCD47for1LMDSandAK111IL-17formoderate-to-severepsoriasisandAStoenterthephaseIIIclinicaltrialin2023EMaintainBUYConsideringtheupfrontpaymentforAK112PD-1VEGFfromSummitTherapeuticsandsalesrampupofcommercializedproductsweraiseourEPSforecastfrom-Rmb068toRmb212in23Efrom-Rmb042to-Rmb023in24EandforecastRmb054in25EBasedontheDCFmodelweraiseourtargetpricefromHK450toHK550With28upsidewemaintainourBUYratingRisksRDfailureofkeypipelinelower-than-expectedsalesofkeycommercializedproductsFinancialsummaryandvaluation202120222023E2024E2025ERevenueRmbm226838501527684077GrowthYoY-271264986744804729NetprofitRmbm107511681780190456GrowthYoY-----EPSRmb132142212023054ROE327745863702298296PEx--1783167506962PBx9391222660500627NoteEPSiscalculatedasthenetprofitattributabletoshareholdersdividedbyweightedaveragenumberofdilutedsharesJanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearch投资要点康方生物2022年收入同比增长271达到838亿元净亏损为120亿元去年同期净亏损110亿元整体业绩高于我们的预期公司收入主要来自派安普利单抗AK105和卡度尼利单抗AK104的销售贡献2022年公司研发费用同比增长18至13亿元销售费用同比增长208至553亿元目前公司在手现金超过50亿元账上现金充足考虑到SummitTherapeutics支付AK112PD-1VEGF的首付款以及公司商业化产品销售放量的影响我们将2023年的每股盈利预测从-068元上调至212元将2024年的预测从-042元上调至-023元新增2025年预测为054元根据DCF模型我们将目标价从450港币上调至550港币目标价对应28的上升空间维持买入评级两款核心产品实现销售放量2022年卡度尼利单抗AK104销售额达到546亿元AK104是公司第二款商业化产品2022年6月底获得NMPA的上市批准用于治疗复发或转移性宫颈癌RMCC患者该品种为首个国产获批上市的双抗产品此外公司预计有望于2023年递交AK104联合化疗治疗一线宫颈癌的上市申请就大适应症而言AK104联合化疗治疗一线胃癌胃食管交界癌GCGEJ已经完成III期临床试验患者入组有望于2023年数据读出此外AK104单药术后辅助治疗肝细胞癌HCC的III期临床试验正在进行患者入组就公司首款商业化产品而言2022年派安普利单抗AK105销售额同比增长164达到558亿元AK105已获得NMPA关于三线复发难治性经典型霍奇金淋巴瘤rrcHL和一线鳞状非小细胞肺癌sq-NSCLC的上市批准其中sq-NSCLC适应症于2023年1月获批上市依沃西单抗AK112PD-1VEGF达成海外授权协议2022年12月公司与SummitTherapeuticsNASDAQSMMT就依沃西单抗AK112PD-1VEGF达成授权协议SummitTherapeutics获得于美国加拿大欧洲和日本开发及商业化依沃西单抗AK112PD-1VEGF的权利根据协议公司将获得5亿美元的首付款此次交易总对价为50亿美元今年3月公司已经收到SummitTherapeutics支付的5亿美元首付款为公司未来管线开发提供充足资金目前AK112在中国进行多项实体瘤临床试验包括非小细胞肺癌例如EGFR-TKI治疗失败或PD-L1阳性消化道肿瘤头颈鳞癌和乳腺癌等非小细胞肺癌方面AK112联合化疗治疗EGFR-TKI治疗失败的NSCLC已经完成III期临床试验患者入组有望于2023年向NMPA递交上市申请此外AK112单药对比帕博利珠单抗一线治疗PD-L1阳性的NSCLC患者的III期临床研究正在进行患者入组有望于2023年完成入组同时AK112的海外临床试验有望于2023年启动其他管线2023年展望非肿瘤管线方面公司预计有望于2023年递交伊努西单抗PCSK9AK102治疗高胆固醇血症和杂合子家族性高胆固醇血症HeFH以及AK101IL-12IL-13治疗中重度银屑病的上市申请此外公司预计AK117莱法利单抗CD47治疗一线骨髓增生异常综合症MDS以及AK111IL-17治疗中重度银屑病和强直性脊柱炎AS有望于2023年进入III期注册性临床试验维持买入评级考虑到SummitTherapeutics支付AK112PD-1VEGF的首付款以及公司商业化产品销售放量的影响我们将2023年的每股盈利预测从-068元上调至212元将2024年的预测从-042元上调至-023元新增2025年预测为054元根据DCF模型我们将目标价从450港币上调至550港币目标价对应28的上升空间维持买入评级风险提示关键在研产品研发失败核心产品商业化进度低于预期Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers1JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchCompanyFinancialsConsolidatedIncomeStatementRmbm202120222023E2024E2025ERevenue226838501527684077CostofSales3194301277408GrossProfit194744471324913670OtherIncome116159606060SellingGeneralAdmiExpenses42375298711901509Ebitda120413332344157621Ebit126214012256264493FinanceCosts10431586Profitbeforetax125814222261253507Incometaxexpense00000Minorityinterests1832544806351Profitfortheyear107511681780190456SourceSWSResearchConsolidatedCashFlowStatementRmbm202120222023E2024E2025EProfitbeforetaxation125814222261253507PlusDeprandamortisation586888108128Financecost10431586Lossesfrominvestments00000Changeinworkingcapital1074721851003486Others8123404040CFfromoperatingactivities10011240139826114Capex716200100100100OtherCFfrominvestingactivities137690000CFfrominvestingactivities580890100100100Equityfinancing9920000Netchangeinliabilities6456006008000Dividendandinterestpaid13431586OtherCFfromfinancingactivities38929000CFfromfinancingactivities158714865857926Netcashflow664462415188FCFF181314865974634FCFE1178929644153828SourceSWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers2JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchConsolidatedBalanceSheetRmbm202120222023E2024E2025ECurrentAssets31523058509655966136Bankbalancesandcash26422092271642344242Tradeandotherreceivables314428208410751564Inventories1973429991134Othercurrentassets0196196196196Long-terminvestment912151821PPE13532000201220041976Intangibleandotherassets292426423420417TotalAssets48065496754580388550CurrentLiabilities6561361119019752021Borrowings46446104618461846Tradeandotherpayables601908137122168Othercurrentliabilities97777Long-termliabilities8701587154715071467TotalLiabilities15262948273634823487MinorityInterests11688393330380ShareholderEquity31642636441642274683ShareCapital00000Reserves32162720450043114767TotalEquity32802548480945565063TotalLiabilitiesandequity48065496754580388550SourceSWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers3JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchInformationDisclosureUndertakingsoftheAnalystIWeamareconferredtheProfessionalQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustrybytheSecuritiesAssociationofChinaandhaveregisteredastheSecuritiesAnalystIherebyissuethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligenceprofessionalandprudentresearchmethodsandonlylegitimateinformationisusedinthisreportIamalsoresponsibleforthecontentandopinionsofthisreportIhaveneverbeenamnotandwillnotbecompensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecificrecommendationsoropinionshereinDisclosurewithrespecttotheCompanyThecompanyisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritiesThecompanyisaqualifiedsecuritiesinvestmentconsultinginstituteapprovedbyChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionTheaffiliatesoftheCompanymayholdortradetheinvestmenttargetsmentionedinthisreportinaccordancewiththelawandmayalsoprovideorseektoprovideinvestmentbankingservicesforthesetargetsTheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithinitssphereofknowledgeTheclientsmaycontactcomplianceswsresearchcomfortherelevantdisclosurematerialsorlogintowwwswsresearchcomfortheanalystsqualificationsthearrangementofthequietperiodandtheaffiliatesshareholdingsIntroductionofShareInvestmentRatingSecurityInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupofthesecurityandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthisreportwedefinethetermsasfollowsBUYSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20upsideOutperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20upsideHoldSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10downsideto10upsideUnderperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20downsideSELLSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20downsideIndustryInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupoftheindustryindexandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthereportwedefinethetermsasfollowsOverweightIndustryperformsbetterthanthatofthewholemarketNeutralIndustryperformsaboutthesameasthatofthewholemarketUnderweightIndustryperformsworsethanthatofthewholemarketWewouldliketoremindyouthatdifferentsecurityresearchinstitutionsadoptdifferentratingterminologiesandratingstandardsWeadopttherelativeratingmethodtorecommendtherelativeweightingsofinvestmentTheclientsdecisionstobuyorsellsecuritiesshallbebasedontheiractualsituationsuchastheirportfoliostructuresandothernecessaryfactorsTheclientsshallreadthroughthewholereportsoastoobtainthecompleteopinionsandinformationandshallnotrelysolelyontheinvestmentratingstoreachaconclusionTheCompanyemploysitsownindustryclassificationsystemTheindustryclassificationisavailableatoursalespersonnelifyouareinterestedHSCEIisthebenchmarkemployedinthisreportDisclaimerThisreportispublishedbySWSResearchCoLtdsubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritieshereinafterreferredtoastheCompanyinmainlandChinaexcludingHongKongMacaoandTaiwanandtobeusedsolelybytheclientsoftheCompanyincludingQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestorsandotherqualifiedclientsinaccordancewiththelawTheCompanywillnotdeemanyotherpersonasitsclientnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisreportTheclientsunderstandthatthetextmessagereminderandtelephonerecommendationarenomorethanabriefcommunicationoftheresearchopinionswhicharesubjecttothecompletereportreleasedontheCompanyswebsitehttpwwwswsresearchcomTheclientsmayaskforfollow-upexplanationsiftheysowishSaveandexceptasotherwisestipulatedinthisreportthecontactoruponthefirstpageofthereportonlyactsastheliaisonwhoshallnotprovideanyconsultingservicesThisreportisbasedonpublicinformationhowevertheauthenticityaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformationisnotwarrantedbytheCompanyThematerialstoolsopinionsandspeculationscontainedhereinarefortheclientsreferenceonlyandarenottoberegardedordeemedasaninvitationforthesaleorpurchaseofanysecurityorotherinvestmentinstrumentsThematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinonlyreflectthejudgmentoftheCompanyonthedaythisreportisreleasedThepricesvaluesandinvestmentreturnsofthesecuritiesorinvestmentinstrumentsreferredtohereinmayfluctuateAtdifferentperiodstheCompanymayreleasereportswhichareinconsistentwiththematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinTheclientsshallconsidertheCompanyspossibleconflictofinterestswhichmayaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandshallnotbasetheirinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthisreportTheclientsshouldmakeinvestmentdecisionsindependentlyandsolelyatyourownriskPleaseberemindedthatinanyeventthecompanywillnotsharegainsorlossesofanysecuritiesinvestmentwiththeclientsWhetherwrittenororalanycommitmenttosharegainsorlossesofsecuritiesinvestmentisinvalidTheinvestmentandservicesreferredtohereinmaynotbesuitableforcertainclientsandshallnotconstitutepersonaladviceforindividualclientsTheCompanydoesnotensurethatthisreportfullytakesintoconsiderationoftheparticularinvestmentobjectivesfinancialsituationsorneedsofindividualclientsTheCompanystronglysuggeststheclientstoconsiderthemselveswhethertheopinionsorsuggestionshereinaresuitablefortheclientsparticularsituationsandtoconsultanindependentinvestmentconsultantifnecessaryUndernocircumstancesshalltheinformationcontainedhereinortheopinionsexpressedhereinformsaninvestmentrecommendationtoanyoneUndernocircumstancesshalltheCompanybeheldresponsibleforanylosscausedbytheuseofanycontentshereinbyanyonePleasebeparticularlycautioustotherisksandexposuresofthemarketviainvestmentIndependentinvestmentconsultantshouldbeconsultedbeforeanyinvestmentdecisionisrenderedbasedonthisreportoratanyrequestofexplanationforthisreportwherethereceiverofthisreportisnotaclientoftheCompanyTheCompanypossessesallcopyrightsofthisreportwhichshallbetreatedasnon-publicinformationTheCompanyreservesallrightsrelatedtothisreportUnlessotherwiseindicatedinwritingallthecopyrightsofallthematerialshereinbelongtotheCompanyIntheabsenceofanypriorauthorizationbytheCompanyinwritingnopartofthisreportshallbecopiedphotocopiedreplicatedorredistributedtoanyotherpersoninanyformbyanymeansorbeusedinanyotherwayswhichwillinfringeuponthecopyrightsoftheCompanyAllthetrademarksservicemarksandmarksusedhereinaretrademarksservicemarksormarksoftheCompanyandnooneshallhavetherighttousethematanycircumstanceswithoutthepriorconsentoftheCompanyPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers4