研究报告全文：SWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorldUtilityCompanyResearch17March2023BottomingoutBUYTowngasSmartEnergy1083HKUnchangedMarketData16March2022TowngasSmartEnergyreportedFY22revenueofHK2007bn17YoYandearningsofHK965mClosingpriceHK382-23YoYmissingourexpectationThecompanyproposedtopayafinaldividendofHK015perHSCEI6482shareTowngashassignedamemorandumofunderstandingwithShenergyGrouptowithdrawfrom52-weekhighLowHK486275theequityinvestmentofa25stakeinShanghaiGasMarketCapHKm12448HigherrevenuevslowermarginIn2022thecompanyaddedsevennewurbangasprojectsandSharesoutstandingm3259broughtthetotalto183Thenumberofcustomersswelledby084mtoatotalof1593mTheExchangeRateRmb-HK114growingnumberofprojectsandastrongeruserbaseliftedthecompanysgassalesto1525bnm5YoYgasandenergysalesdeliveredacombinedrevenueofHK1666bn194YoYwhilePricePerformanceChartgrossprofitslidto715m-342YoYwhichweascribetothefollowingreasons1Elevated50upstreamgaspricespusheduppurchasepriceswhichfailedtobepassedontohousehold0customershencedraggingdownthegrossmargin2RenewableenergybusinessremainsintheearlystagewhichcoupledwiththeCovidimpactsloweddownPVinstallation-50Non-operatingbreakevenDuetothehighgaspriceandtheCovidoutbreaksinShanghaitheTowngasSmartEnergyHSCEIcompanysufferedlossesfromits25stakeinShanghaiGaswhichamountedtoHK589min2022Atend-2022thecompanyssharepricestoodatHK392significantlylowerthantheconversionSourceWindpriceofconvertiblebondsissuedtoAffinityatHK633pershareresultinginanincomeofHKAnalyst531mfromfairvaluechangesRegardlessofthegainsandlossesmentionedabovetheattributablenetprofitresidedatHK102bn-365YoYWangLuDiversifiedgassourcestowidenmarginThecompanyplanstoincreasetheproportionofgasA0230516080007purchasedfromsourcesotherthanthreebarrelsofoilSinopec600028CHN-RPetroChinawangluswsresearchcom601857CH-BUYandCNOOC600938CH-BUYtodiversifythesourcestructurethroughacquiringcoalbedmethaneininlandareasandimportingLNGincoastalareastobringdowntheAssociateoverallcostByend-2023thecompanysself-operatedgassourcewillreach2bnmslashingoverallZhuHepurchasecostbyRmb01m3In2022thecompanysgrossmarginreachedRmb050m-A0230122060007Rmb001m3QoQAccordingtothecompanysguidancethegrossmarginwillreboundtozhuheswsresearchcomRmb052m3in23EGrowthpotentialofPVbusinessIn2022thecompanysignedatotalinstalledcapacityof137GWContactincluding055GWconnectedtothepowergridand03GWstillunderconstructionTheCovidWangLuimpacthasstartedtowanesinceend-2022thecompanysinstalledPVcapacityhasshotupandwewangluswsresearchcomexpectthecumulativegrid-connectedPVcapacitytosurpass1GWbytheendof1Q23WithsmoothlogisticsnationwideandthedownwardpricepressureonPVmodulesTowngasaimsforacumulativeinstalledcapacityof3GWin23EGiventhemanagementsynergyforlarge-scalePVprojectsinthesmartparkweexpectthePVprojectstoachieveahigherIRRthanthemarketaverageandcontinuetobolsterprofitabilityfrom2023onwardsMaintainBUYConsideringtheexclusionofShanghaiGassinvestmentincomefromthecompanysfinancialstatementstheexpectationoflowergaspurchasepricesandtheincreaseinplannedrenewableenergygrid-connectedcapacityexpansionwetrimourearningsforecastfromHK142bntoHK135bnin23EfromHK167bntoHK179bnin24EandintroduceforecastHK201bnfor25EnotconsideringgainsorlossesfromfairvaluechangesofconvertiblebondsThestockistradingat92x23EPE72x24EPEand62x25EPEWemaintainourBUYratingRisksSharpriseofgaspurchasepriceslower-than-expectedgrid-connectedcapacityramp-upFinancialsummaryandvaluation202120222023E2024E2025ERevenueHKDmillion1712520073209142300625243GrowthYoY3351724210097NetprofitHKDmillion1253965134917282013GrowthYoY-134-230398281165EPSHKD040030041053062ROE5239546571PEx97129927262NoteEPSiscalculatedasthenetprofitattributabletoshareholdersdividedbytotalsharecapitalSWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorld投资要点港华智慧能源公布2022年业绩实现营业收入20073亿港元同比增长17公司归母净利润965亿港元同比下降23低于我们的预期公司拟派末期股息每股15港仙公司公告与申能集团签订谅解备忘录计划退出上海燃气25股权权益投资燃气及能源销售主业增收不增利2022年公司新增七个城市燃气项目累计达到183个客户数量新增84万户累计达到1593万户项目及用户数增量带动公司销气量稳步上涨2022年公司销气量15246亿m同比增长5管道燃气及能源销售实现营业额16664亿港元同比增长194但其业务毛利下滑至715亿港元同比下降342我们认为主要原因有1上游气价高企带动公司购气价格上涨居民顺价不畅导致整体毛差下滑2可再生能源业务仍在投入期叠加疫情影响光伏并网速度不及预期非经营性损失与收益基本相抵未来对公司业绩影响将减弱受气价高企及上海疫情影响参股25的上海燃气亏损2022年公司分占上海燃气业绩亏损达589亿港元2022年底公司股价392港元股大幅低于向Affinity发行的可转债的转股价633港元股产生公允价值变动收益531亿港元不考虑该两项损益公司归母净利润为1023亿港元同比下降365气源多元化长期有望修复毛差公司计划未来加大采购三桶油外气源比例通过在内陆地区获取煤层气及在沿海地区进口LNG的方式丰富气源结构并降低综合购气成本2023年公司自营气源规模将达到20亿方降低综合气源采购成本01元立方米2022年公司销气毛差为050元m环比下降001元m根据公司指引2023年公司毛差有望回升至052元m园区光伏业务有望长期释放潜力2022年公司累计签约装机容量137GW其中并网装机055GW在建03GW自去年底疫情影响减弱后公司光伏装机规模快速发展今年Q1末累计光伏并网容量有望突破1GW在全国物流畅通光伏组件价格处于下降趋势公司规划到2023年底实现累计3GW并网规模考虑到公司在智慧园区内可充分发挥对规模化光伏的管理协同效应我们看好零碳园区光伏项目取得高于市场平均的收益率并在2023年后为公司持续增厚业绩维持买入评级考虑到上海燃气投资收益不再计入公司报表购气成本有望回落新能源并网装机规划增长等因素调减2023年调增2024年并新增2025年盈利预测不考虑可转债公允价值变动损益我们预计归母净利润分别134917282013亿港元23-24年原值分别为14241674亿港元当前股价对应2023-2025年PE分别为92x72x62x风险提示天然气购气成本大幅上升新增并网装机规模不及预期OctoberJanuary122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchCompanyResearchCompanyfinancialsConsolidatedincomestatementHKm202020212022E2023E2024ERevenue1712520073209142300625243CostofSales-14831-18240-18318-19601-21279Unallocatedcompanyexpenses-189-220-251-276-303Otherincomegainnet-23966513600Shareofresultsofassociates436-247363123ShareofresultsofJFC431306306366426Operatingprofit27332336304238354513Financialexpense-589-753-793-955-1157Profitbeforetax21451584224928803356Incometaxexpense-618-383-562-720-839Netprofitwithminorityinterest15271201168721602517Minorityinterest274236337432503Netprofitattributabletoequityholders1253965134917282013SourceCompanyfilingsSWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers1OctoberJanuary122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchCompanyResearchInformationDisclosureUndertakingsoftheAnalystIWeamareconferredtheProfessionalQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustrybytheSecuritiesAssociationofChinaandhaveregisteredastheSecuritiesAnalystIherebyissuethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligenceprofessionalandprudentresearchmethodsandonlylegitimateinformationisusedinthisreportIamalsoresponsibleforthecontentandopinionsofthisreportIhaveneverbeenamnotandwillnotbecompensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecificrecommendationsoropinionshereinDisclosurewithrespecttotheCompanyThecompanyisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritiesThecompanyisaqualifiedsecuritiesinvestmentconsultinginstituteapprovedbyChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionTheaffiliatesoftheCompanymayholdortradetheinvestmenttargetsmentionedinthisreportinaccordancewiththelawandmayalsoprovideorseektoprovideinvestmentbankingservicesforthesetargetsTheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithinitssphereofknowledgeTheclientsmaycontactcomplianceswsresearchcomfortherelevantdisclosurematerialsorlogintowwwswsresearchcomfortheanalystsqualificationsthearrangementofthequietperiodandtheaffiliatesshareholdingsIntroductionofShareInvestmentRatingSecurityInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupofthesecurityandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthisreportwedefinethetermsasfollowsBUYSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20upsideOutperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20upsideHoldSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10downsideto10upsideUnderperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20downsideSELLSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20downsideIndustryInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupoftheindustryindexandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthereportwedefinethetermsasfollowsOverweightIndustryperformsbetterthanthatofthewholemarketNeutralIndustryperformsaboutthesameasthatofthewholemarketUnderweightIndustryperformsworsethanthatofthewholemarketWewouldliketoremindyouthatdifferentsecurityresearchinstitutionsadoptdifferentratingterminologiesandratingstandardsWeadopttherelativeratingmethodtorecommendtherelativeweightingsofinvestmentTheclientsdecisionstobuyorsellsecuritiesshallbebasedontheiractualsituationsuchastheirportfoliostructuresandothernecessaryfactorsTheclientsshallreadthroughthewholereportsoastoobtainthecompleteopinionsandinformationandshallnotrelysolelyontheinvestmentratingstoreachaconclusionTheCompanyemploysitsownindustryclassificationsystemTheindustryclassificationisavailableatoursalespersonnelifyouareinterestedHSCEIisthebenchmarkemployedinthisreportDisclaimerThisreportispublishedbySWSResearchCoLtdsubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritieshereinafterreferredtoastheCompanyinmainlandChinaexcludingHongKongMacaoandTaiwanandtobeusedsolelybytheclientsoftheCompanyincludingQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestorsandotherqualifiedclientsinaccordancewiththelawTheCompanywillnotdeemanyotherpersonasitsclientnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisreportTheclientsunderstandthatthetextmessagereminderandtelephonerecommendationarenomorethanabriefcommunicationoftheresearchopinionswhicharesubjecttothecompletereportreleasedontheCompanyswebsitehttpwwwswsresearchcomTheclientsmayaskforfollow-upexplanationsiftheysowishSaveandexceptasotherwisestipulatedinthisreportthecontactoruponthefirstpageofthereportonlyactsastheliaisonwhoshallnotprovideanyconsultingservicesThisreportisbasedonpublicinformationhowevertheauthenticityaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformationisnotwarrantedbytheCompanyThematerialstoolsopinionsandspeculationscontainedhereinarefortheclientsreferenceonlyandarenottoberegardedordeemedasaninvitationforthesaleorpurchaseofanysecurityorotherinvestmentinstrumentsThematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinonlyreflectthejudgmentoftheCompanyonthedaythisreportisreleasedThepricesvaluesandinvestmentreturnsofthesecuritiesorinvestmentinstrumentsreferredtohereinmayfluctuateAtdifferentperiodstheCompanymayreleasereportswhichareinconsistentwiththematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinTheclientsshallconsidertheCompanyspossibleconflictofinterestswhichmayaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandshallnotbasetheirinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthisreportTheclientsshouldmakeinvestmentdecisionsindependentlyandsolelyatyourownriskPleaseberemindedthatinanyeventthecompanywillnotsharegainsorlossesofanysecuritiesinvestmentwiththeclientsWhetherwrittenororalanycommitmenttosharegainsorlossesofsecuritiesinvestmentisinvalidTheinvestmentandservicesreferredtohereinmaynotbesuitableforcertainclientsandshallnotconstitutepersonaladviceforindividualclientsTheCompanydoesnotensurethatthisreportfullytakesintoconsiderationoftheparticularinvestmentobjectivesfinancialsituationsorneedsofindividualclientsTheCompanystronglysuggeststheclientstoconsiderthemselveswhethertheopinionsorsuggestionshereinaresuitablefortheclientsparticularsituationsandtoconsultanindependentinvestmentconsultantifnecessaryUndernocircumstancesshalltheinformationcontainedhereinortheopinionsexpressedhereinformsaninvestmentrecommendationtoanyoneUndernocircumstancesshalltheCompanybeheldresponsibleforanylosscausedbytheuseofanycontentshereinbyanyonePleasebeparticularlycautioustotherisksandexposuresofthemarketviainvestmentIndependentinvestmentconsultantshouldbeconsultedbeforeanyinvestmentdecisionisrenderedbasedonthisreportoratanyrequestofexplanationforthisreportwherethereceiverofthisreportisnotaclientoftheCompanyTheCompanypossessesallcopyrightsofthisreportwhichshallbetreatedasnon-publicinformationTheCompanyreservesallrightsrelatedtothisreportUnlessotherwiseindicatedinwritingallthecopyrightsofallthematerialshereinbelongtotheCompanyIntheabsenceofanypriorauthorizationbytheCompanyinwritingnopartofthisreportshallbecopiedphotocopiedreplicatedorredistributedtoanyotherpersoninanyformbyanymeansorbeusedinanyotherwayswhichwillinfringeuponthecopyrightsoftheCompanyAllthetrademarksservicemarksandmarksusedhereinaretrademarksservicemarksormarksoftheCompanyandnooneshallhavetherighttousethematanycircumstanceswithoutthepriorconsentoftheCompanyPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers2