研究报告全文：13Sep2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaInsuranceLOUTPERFORMOptimizedsolvencymeasurementopensroomforMaintaininsurancefundsparticipationinequityinvestmentTheNationalAdministrationofFinancialRegulationNAFRissuedtheNoticeChinaInsuranceSectoronOptimizingtheSolvencyStandardsforInsuranceCompanies关于优化保险公司偿付能力监管标准的通知on10SepagainstthebackdropofrelativelydecliningsolvencyratiosundertheCROSS-IIespeciallyforthemid-and-smallNikaMAsizedinsurancecompaniesThenoticepromotedfourpivotsincl1differentiate85239000805nikamacmbicomhkminimumcapitalmeasurementbasedoncompaniestotalassets2encouragelong-termprotectionproductsgivingincreasedproportionstobeincludedincoreMiaoZHANGcapitalfromfuturesurplusofpolicieswhoseremainingtermswere10yrs385237618910downgraderiskfactorsforinsurancefundsparticipatinginequityinvestmentstozhangmiaocmbicomhkboostthemarketsliquidityand4guidethelong-and-stablecapitaltoprovidesupportfortechnologicalinnovationsandrealeconomyWithoptimizedsolvencyratiosmeasurementandeasedequityinvestmentregulationswebelievetheindustryispoisedforhigh-calibregrowthamidtherecoverytrendofChinesecapitalmarketswithRMB190-200bnfundstobefreeforcapitalinvestmentsbasedonourestimationRMB190-200bntransferringto14-15increaseinindustrysolvencyTheNAFReasedriskfactorsforinsurancecompaniesinvestmentsinCSI300IndexandtheSci-TechInnovationBoardfrom035to03andfrom045to04respectivelyBasedon6M23NAFRstatsoninsurancefundsusageRMB346tnwasinvestedinstocksandsecuritiesfundstaking13oftotalinvestmentassetsAmongwhichstockstook60presumablygivingabalofRMB208tnby6M23using6M23datatomatchthelatestindustrysolvencyprintWeassumed40-50ofRMB208tninvestedintoCSI300with5increaseperintervaland5intoSci-TechInnovationBoardandreturnedwithminimumcapitalMCresultsasofRMB467bn519bn571bnbeforeanyriskdiversificationeffectIfadjustedwithriskfactorsthetotalreleaseofthissinglepivotwouldrangebwRMB151bn-186bn5increaseinallocationtoCSI300implies10upsideinlong-termcapitalreleasedconducivetoattractinginsurancefundscomingintoequitymarketsgiventheshortageinhigh-yieldedassetsTheindustrysolvencywouldraiseby14-15inourestimateasshowninFig2MinimumcapitalMCdifferentiationbenefitsmid-and-smallplayersThenoticealloweddifferentiationfactorsforsolvencycalcfocusingonthecompaniestotalassetsForPCandreinsurancecompanieswithtotalassetsatRMB10bn-RMB200bntheadjustedMCcantakeas95ofpriorlevelimplyingacoefficientof-005ForPCandreinsurancelessthanRMB10bnMCcanlowerto90ofpriorlevelindicatingacoefficientof-01ForpersonallifeinsurersoftotalassetsatRMB50bn-RMB500bnorlessthanRMB50bntheMCcanbecomputedas9590ofprevstateThepivotleavesroomformid-and-smallplayerstomakemoreefficientuseontheircapitalandbetterfulfiltheindustry-wideregulatoryrequirementsBy6M23thedisclosedtotalassetsofpersonallifeandPCinsurersincreasedtoRMB2503tnRMB288tnTheindustrytotalassetsinclreinsuranceandAMChitRMB2920tnIfassumedsameproportionsforthenetassetsoflifeandPCasoftheirtotalassetstotheindustrylevelwewouldderiveabalanceofRMB268tntranslatingtoRMB1405bnlong-termfundsreleasePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk13Sep2023Increasingweightsforfuturesurplusofpoliciestobeincludedincorecapitalbackinglong-termprotectionsThemaximumweightstobeincludedintocorecapitalforfuturesurplusofpolicieswithremainingtermsover10yrsincreasedfrom35to40broadeningwaysforlifeinsurersoncorecapitalreplenishmentThepivotbackedthelong-persistedlifeproductstrategyadvocatingforthedevelopmentinLTprotection-basedbusinessesGiventhelifenetassetamountedtoRMB241tnandcorelifesolvencyat1065by2Q23weendupinRMB290bnminimumcapitalfundstobereleasedwiththereleaserateat128Webelievethepivotwillbemoreskewedtowardshelpingthelifeinsurerswhoexceededtheprevlevelof35inCROSSIItransitionperiodandwillshowevidenteffectsoncapitalalleviationConstructiveovergrowthprospectgivenincrementalfundstocapitalmarketsconducivetoinsurersassetperformanceWithaseriesofreleaseoncapitalmarketboostersweremainconstructiveovergrowthprospectgiventhelong-and-stablenatureoftheinsurancefundsinjectedintocapitalmarketsshoringupequitiesandmarketsentimentAsthebackboneoflong-termfundstheinvestmentperformanceofinsurancecompaniesisindivisibletothatofcapitalmarketwheretheRMB190-200bnincrementalfundsinourviewcanactasaprop-upfortheinsurersinvestmentreturnsHeadingto2H23wecontinuelikeChinaLife2628HKandPingAn2318HKandlookpositiveonCPIC2601HKRiskscontinueddownwardtrendinCNlong-termtreasuryyieldsweaker-than-expectedmarketsentimentawaitingformorestimulitheestimateonlong-terminsurancefundssignificantlyvariedfromactualresultsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE213Sep2023Figure1NoticeonOptimizingtheSolvencyofInsuranceCompaniesFieldContentStandardspriortotheNoticeImplicationsRMB10bnRMB200bn95MCMinimumcapitaliscalc100MC1Benefitmoretomid-and-smallsizedrequirementriskfactor-005requirementriskfactor0insurancecompaniesDifferentiatedminimumcapital0RMB10bn90MCrequirementMinimumcapitaliscalc100MC1increasesolvencyratios2enabletorequirementsriskfactor-010requirementriskfactor0makebetteruseofcapital差异化资本监管RMB50bnRMB500bn95MCMinimumcapitaliscalc100MC2ExpecttoreleaseRMB140bnfromrequirementriskfactor-005requirementriskfactor0minimumcapitalfunds0RMB50bn90MCrequirementMinimumcapitaliscalc100MCriskfactor-010requirementriskfactor01Ifthearithmeticmeanofretrospectivedeviationofunearnedpremiumsreserveafter-reinsuranceforallnon-lifeinsurancebusinessattheendofthe1BroadenchannelsforlifeinsurerstoprevioustwofiscalyearscalcatthemostAdditionalriskfactor0replenishcorecapitalwoneedsofrecentquarterislessthanorequalto-5externalpressure-5theMCrequirementforpremiumsandreserverisks95riskfactor-0052IfthearithmeticmeanofretrospectiveGuideinsurancedeviationofoutstandingclaimsreservecompaniestoafter-reinsuranceforallnon-life2Benefitmoretolifeinsurerswhoreturntotheinsurancebusinessattheendoftheexceededthepreviouslevelof35withinprotectionrootsAdditionalriskfactor0previoustwofiscalyearscalcatthemosttheCROSS-IItransitionperiodmayresultrecentquarterislessthanorequalto-5inmoreevidentcapitalalleviationeffect优化资本量化标-5theMCrequirementfor准回归保障本源premiumsandreserverisks95riskfactor-0051Futuresurplusofpolicies353IncreasetheproportiontobeincludedinCorecapitalmax35corecapitalforfuturesurplusofpolicies2Supplementarycapital100Corewithremainingtermofmorethan10yearscapital3ExpecttoreleaseRMB290bnfrom35to40max403Coretier-2capital30Coreminimumcapitalfundscapital4encouragelifeinsurancecompaniesto4Supplementarytier-2capital25developlong-termprotectionproductsCorecapital1Riskfactorforinvestingstockslisted1Riskfactorforinvestingstockslisted1ReducedriskfactorsindicatelowerGuideinsuranceonCSI300Index03-005onCSI300Index035capitalemployedforinvestmentsandcompaniestobusinessoperationsleavingroomforprovidesupportfor2Riskfactorforinvestingstockslisted2RiskfactorforinvestingstockslistedcapitalinvestmentsstableandhealthyontheScienceandTechnologyontheScienceandTechnologydevelopmentinInnovationBoard科创板04-005InnovationBoard科创板045capitalmarkets3Riskfactorforinvestmentsinpublicly3Riskfactorforinvestmentsinpublicly2ExpecttoreleasemorethanRMB优化风险因子释offeredinfrastructuresecuritiesofferedinfrastructuresecurities151bn-RMB186bnlong-termfunds放权益投资空间investmentfundsREITSnon-investmentfundsREITSnon-dependingontheallocationpercentilespenetrated05-01penetrated06inCSI300Index1Riskfactorforinvestingunlistedequity1RiskfactorforinvestingunlistedequityGuideinsurancerelatedtonationalsecurityandstrategicrelatedtonationalsecurityandstrategiccompaniestoemergingindustries04-001emergingindustries041Unleashpotentialforlong-termfundssupportenteringintoprimaryequitymarketsandtechnological2ApplyriskfactorsofPCinsurance2Advancedtechnologyinsurancecapturehigh-yieldedopportunitiesinnovationcompaniestoTechnologyinsurancecompaniesriskfactor09Others10entitiesoperatedbyinsurancecompanies引导保险资金服务科技创新3Minimumcapitaliscalc90MCrequirementriskfactor-01SourceNationalAdministrationofFinancialRegulationNAFRCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE313Sep2023Figure2EstimateoninsuranceMCfundreleasetocapitalmarketsIndustry-levelstatisticsRMBbn1H23Lifetotalassets25031PCtotalassets2879IndustrytotalassetsinclreinsuranceAMC29200Industrynetassets2808Lifetotalassetsasaofindustrytotal857PCtotalassetsasaofindustrytotal99DifferentiatedminimumcapitalrequirementsbasedontotalassetsscaleLifenetassets2407PCnetassets277Industryminimumcapitalin2Q232684RiskfactorsPCtotalassetsRMB10bnRMB200bn-005PCtotalassets0RMB10bn-01PersonalLifecompaniesinRMB50bnRMB500bn-005Personallifecompaniesin0RMB50bn-01NoofPCcompaniesinRMB10bnRMB200bn357NoofPCcompaniesin0RMB10bn643NoPersonalLifecompaniesinRMB50bnRMB500bn667NoofPersonallifecompaniesin0RMB50bn333IndustryMCfundsreleaseratio52MinimumcapitalreleaseRMBbn1405Increasetheproportiontobeincludedincorecapitalforfuturesurplusofpolicieswithremainingtermofmorethan10yearsfrom35to40Lifecomprehensivesolvencyratioin2Q231787Lifecoresolvencyratioin2Q231065Lifecorecapitalreleaseratemaxfrom35to40128Lifeinsurancenetassets2407MinimumcapitalreleaseRMBbn2898DowngraderiskfactorsforinsurersinvestmentsinstocksandREITsfreeupcapitalInsurancefundsinvestedinstocksRMBbn2078ChginriskfactorsforinvestinginCSI300STARMarket-005RiskfactorforinvestinginCSI300index03RiskfactorforinvestinginSTARMarket04LTcapitalfundsreleasegivenriskfactorschgto0304InvestmentAllocationtoAllocationCSI300LTcapitalfundsreleasewithriskallocationtoSTARChgtoCSI300Indexfactorsof0304RMBbnCSI300Market40415555191514912945467555191688011450519455191861110355571355192034393PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE413Sep2023Figure2EstimateoninsuranceMCfundreleaseContinuedDowngraderiskfactorsforinsurersinvestmentsinstocksandREITsfreeupcapitalMinimumcapitalreleaseRMBbnWith40investedinCSI3005inSTARmarketRMBbn4675With50investedinCSI3005inSTARmarketRMBbn571347714875TotalreleasedminimumcapitalRMBbnbeforeriskdiversification140528984675140528985713Riskdiversificationandlossabsorptioneffect40TotaladjminimumcapitalreleasedRMBbn19081950Insurancecompaniescomprehensivesolvencyin2Q231880Chginindustry-widesolvencyimprovementundertheNotice144147SourceNationalAdministrationofFinancialRegulationNAFRWindCMBIGMNote1STARMarketrepresentstheScienceandTechnologyInnovationBoard2TextsinBLUEimplyquotedstatisticsfromexternalsourcesmostlyfromtheNAFRmonthlydisclosedindustrydata3Lifecorecapitalreleaserate1281-0350651-0406showingtheeffectofincreasingproportionsoffuturesurplustobeincludedincorecapitalfrom35to40undertheNotice4WeassumethePersonalLifeandPCnetassetsshareinsameproportionsasoftheirtotalassetstotheindustrysum5Weintentionallychose6M23statisticstostayinlinewiththemostup-to-dateindustrysolvencyreadPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE513Sep2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6