研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary13Sep2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswerequietthismorningNewissuesEIBKOR2533furthertightenedGlennKoCFA高志和1-2bpsWesawbuyinginterestsonfront-endTMTswhileBankT2swere85236576235bettersellingHigh-yieldingLGFVswerecontinuedtobesoughtafterglennkocmbicomhkChinaInsuranceNAFRrelaxedsolvencymeasurementforinsurerstopromotelongtermstabilityWeviewZhongAnOnlinePCcouldbenefitfromtherelaxationSeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkDALWANAnotherrealitycheckWehavebuyrecommendationsonDALWANsSeebelowTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点JerryWang王世超85237618919YesterdaythesentimentonAsiaex-JPIGremainedcautiousaheadofUSjerrywangcmbicomhkCPIPPIOntheprimaryfrontEIBKORpricedUSD500mn2ybondatT45USD1bn5ybondatT75USD500mn1ybondatT95ThenewEIBKOR2yand10ytightened4bpsfromROwhileits5ypaperhoveredaroundROInChineseSOEsTMTsthefrontendofHAOHUAswereundersmallbetterbuyingwhilethecurveclosedlargelyunchangedBIDU24s25stightened2-3bpsThefrontendofhigh-betaTMTssuchasLENOVO24-25swerebetterbidInfinancialsAMCsweremixedwithtwo-wayflowsHRINTHcurvewasskewedtobetterbuyingandclosed05-1pthigherTherewerealsosomesellingflowsonCCAMCL24-25sInChinesebankT2sthefront-end23spaperswerebetterbidwithcashparkingneedswhilethe24scalledpaperswereunderbettersellingHKCorpspaceperformedmixedNWDEVLPerpsrecovered1-2ptsafterfalling3-6ptsonTuesdayNWSZF29Perpwereup025ptLIFUNG525Perpwasmarkeddown15ptsCKINFPerpslowered05ptChinesepropertiesweremixedLNGFORsROADKGsgained1-15ptsGEMDAL24sweretraded2ptshigherDALWANsCHJMAOswereup075-125ptsCOGARDswere025pthigherMediareportedCOGARDreceivedapprovalfrombondholderstoextendsixoutofeightonshorebondsHoweverFUTLANsFTLNHDsweretradeddown05-1ptGRNLGR25sdeclined175ptInindustrialsFOSUNIsEHICARswerequoted05pthigherMacaugamingpaperssuchasMPELWYNMAC26-28sweremarkeddown025-075ptInIndianspaceVEDLN24-26sweretraded075-125ptshigherMediareportedthatVRLsoundedoutathree-yearmaturityextensionforasubstantialportionofitsUSDbondsdue-2024s2025sIndonesianspacewasmutedTheLGFVspacehadafairlyactivesessionOnthenewissuesideTJRTGCpricedaUSD140mn364dseniorunsecurednotesatparThenewissueTJRTGC7524wastradedslightlyweakerwithabitofprimaryindigestionHoweverinvestorswouldtakecomfortwiththepapers75yieldfor1ycomparedfavourablywith3-handleoftheguarantorsonshorebondsTherewereactivetwo-wayflowsinthe3yLGFVsbetweenon-and-offshorePLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk113Sep2023asaresultofdivergenceinhurdleyieldsamongUSDandRMBfundedmandatesTheshorter-datedLGFV24s25spaperswereactivetoodrivenbycashmanagementneedsMeanwhilethehigher-yieldingLGFVsremainedsoughtafterSOEperpswereatouchsofterinthec24sWhilstc25sSOEperpswerestillwell-bidwithsomebuyinginterestsfromChineseRMsHUADIA3375Perpweremarked0125pthigherFRESHK26ZHONAN25werequoted01-02pthigherLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeGEMDAL49508122451620GRNLGR618042225122-18NWDEVL418PERP51319FTLNHD458101525357-09NWDEVL514PERP61516LIFUNG514PERP373-09ROADKG609042551615CSCHCN9121124447-09LNGFOR38501133251814ROADKG518072626393-08MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP-057Dow-005andNasdaq-104weredraggedbytechsectoronTuesdayCrudeoilpricecontinuedtorallythatWTIBrentoilpricereachedUSD889921perbarrelthehighestlevelsinceNov22UStreasuryyieldsmovedinanarrowrangebeforetheCPIdatatonight251030yieldreachedat498441427435respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinaInsuranceNAFRrelaxedsolvencymeasurementforinsurerstopromotelongtermstabilityChinasfinancialregulatortheNationalAdministrationofFinancialRegulationNAFRissuedanoticeonOptimizingtheSolvencyStandardsforInsuranceCompanieson10SepInbriefiDifferentiateminimumcapitalrequirementforinsurersbasedonthesizeofthetotalassetsiiForpolicieswithremainingtermslessthan10yearstheproportionoffuturesurplustobeincludedincorecapitalincreasetonotlessthan40from35iiiReducetheriskweightingforCSI300Indexconstituentsto03from035stockslistedonShanghaistech-focusedSTARmarketto04from045REITsto05from06unlistedequityofChinastrategicandemergingsectorsissetat04ivDisclose3-yearaverageinvestmentrateofreturnandcomprehensiveinvestmentrateofreturninsolvencyquarterlyreportTheminimumcapitaloflifeinsurerswithtotalassetslessthanRMB50bnwillbecalculatedas90ofpreviouslevelwhilemorethanRMB50bnbutlessthanRMB500bnat95ForPCandreinsurerstotalassetslessthanRMB10bnwillbecalculatedas90whiletotalassetsmorethanRMB10bnbutlessthanRMB200bnat95Smalltomid-sizeinsurerswillbesubjecttoalowerminimumcapitalrequirementfromthereviseddifferentiatedtreatmentandthereleasedcapitalcouldbedirectedtoinvestmentsWithinthesectorweviewZhongAnOnlinePCcouldbenefitfromtherelaxationgivenitstotalassetswasRMB493bnasatJun23therecouldbeimprovementfromcomprehensivesolvencyratiofrom263atJun23Therevisedframeworkwithlowercapitalrequirementandreducedriskweightscouldhelpinsurerstoimprovethesolvencyratioandthe3-yearaveragereturndisclosurerequirementcouldalsohelptoenhancethestability213Sep2023ofthesolvencyratiosacrosstheyearsWeviewreducingriskweightingistoencourageinsurerstoinvestinequitiesdirectthefundingfrominsurerstostimulatetheactivitiesoftheequitymarketsandtoboostinvestorconfidenceHoweverthesepoliciesmightnotpromptinsurerstoincreaseequityexposuresamidweakmarketsedimentDuring2022-23thesectorssolvencyratiosdroppednotablyduetothemorestringentCROSS-IIeffectivefrom1Jan22coupledwithdeclininginvestmentreturnsAccordingtoNAFRtheaveragecomprehensivesolvencyratiocoresolvencyratioforassessedinsurerswas18801227in2Q23lowerthan22081481in2Q22DALWANAnotherrealitycheckHowDWCM1H23resultscomparedwiththoseofotherdevelopersSubsequenttothewithdrawalfrompropertydevelopmentsin2020DalianWandaCommercialManagementDWCMismoreofacommercialpropertyinvestorwithgrowingrecurringrentalincomefromitsexpandingIPportfolioIn1H23recurringincomefrominvestmentpropertyleasingandmanagementaccountedfor91ofDWCMsrevenueHenceitsoperatingperformancehasbeenmoreresilientthanthatofdevelopersIn1H23DWCMreportedlargelystableinterimresultswithhigherrevenuegrossprofitandEBITDAItsgrossandEBITDAmarginin1H23were65and55comparedfavourablywith63and53in1H22and62and52inFY22respectivelyConcernsofaffiliationriskThereareconcernsonaffiliationriskresultingfromDalianWandaGroupandwhetherweshouldassessthecreditprofileofDWCMonastandalonebasisWedonothavemuchinformationastothecreditprofilesofDalianWandaGroupandaffiliatesofDWCMbutwebelievethatultimatecontrollingshareholderWANGJianlinaswellasDalianWandaGrouphaveastrongincentivetokeepDWCMasaring-fencedoperationeveniftheIPOofZhuhaiWandamaynotbecompletedsoonBasedonthefeedbackfromCSRContheIPOofZhuhaiWandainJun23theregulatorsmajorconcernsarewhethertheIPOproceedsfromZhuhaiWandawillbeusedtofundthepropertydevelopmentsofDalianWandaGrouprelatedtransactionsofbetweenZhuhaiWandaandDalianWandaGrouptheriskrelatedtoredemptionofpre-IPOinvestmentsRing-fencedZhuhaiWandaandDWCMwillbethekeystopersuadeCSRCtoapprovetheIPOaswellastolureanyanchorinvestorsfortheIPOOn5Sep23mediareportedthatDalianWandahasconductedIPOpricingroadshowinHongKongandtwooverseasinvestorshasindicatedthattheycouldbecomecornerstoneinvestorsdependingonvaluationWebelievethatCSRCdoesnothavemuchincentivetoblockordelaytheIPOofZhuhaiWandaTheuncertaintiesoftheIPOinourviewislessonregulatoryapprovalsbutmoreonthesentimentofstockmarketsandthelistingvaluationInthecaseoftheIPOisnotgoingthroughsoonwewouldarguethatthering-fencedoperationsofDWCMandZhuhaiWandaareinstrumentalinpersuadingpre-IPOinvestorstowaiveoramendtheputofpre-IPOinvestmentsofcRMB46bninclguaranteedIRRHenceweconsidertheaffiliationriskiscontainedandweshouldassessDWCMcreditprofilemoreonastandalonebasisNear-termbondmaturitiesmanageableYTDDWCMrepaidoffshoreUSDbondsofUSD960mninclUSD400mninJul23andrepaidorredeemedonshorebondsofRMB147bninclputofonshorebondsofcRMB38bnlastweekFortherestof2023theonlyoffshoreandonshorebondmaturityorredemptionisonshorebondDALWAN6623withremainingos313Sep2023amountofRMB30mnWeestimatethatthecouponpaymentsfortherestof2023iscRMB200mnThenextmajorbondmaturitieswillbeUSD600mnRMB43bninJan24ThetotaloutstandingUSDbondsofDWCMisUSD14bnandissmallerthanthatofsmallerdeveloperssuchasRoadKingwhichhasosUSDbondsofUSD19bnand3perpsofUSD900mnaswellasShuiOnLandwhichhasosUSDbondsofUSD19bnItsbondmaturityprofileespeciallytheoffshorebondmaturityprofileismanageableHowaboutthepre-IPOinvestmentsWeexpectDWCMtobeabletowaiveoramendtheputofpre-IPOinvestmentsThepre-IPOinvestorsandDWCMareinthesameboatThewaiveroramendmentofputoptionisintheinterestsofthepre-IPOinvestorsandDWCMZhuhaiWandaasDWCMwillnothavetorushfortheIPOattheexpenseofvaluationThekeystopersuadepre-IPOinvestorsforwaivingoramendingtheputoptioninourvieware1DWCMandZhuhaiWandaarering-fencedoperationscontinuetogeneratelargerecurringincomefrompropertyleasingandmanagementand2botharethemremainsolventandcontinuetohonourpaymentobligationsHowisthefinancialprofileofDWCMDWCMhasalargelystablefinancialprofileWhileitscashonhandreducedandnetdebtincreasedwetakecomfortfromthecRMB15bnandRMB24bnincreaseinfinancialassetsheldfortradingandcurrentwealthmanagementproductsduringJun23Assumingthesefinancialassetsandwealthmanagementproductswouldonlybemonetizedat40oftheirbookvaluesforconservativesakeDWCMspro-formacashSTdebtsratiowillbe15xFurthermoreasperourpreviousdiscussionswithDWCMtheLTVofitsIPBVcRMB459bnwasc22TherewillbeaheadroomofadditionalsecuredfinancingofoverRMB100bncUSD14bnagainstitsIPsiftheLTVincreasesto50TheseshouldsupportanadequateliquidityprofileofDWCMOurviewonDALWANsOurbasecaseisthattheoperationsofDWCMandZhuhaiWandaarering-fencedassuchamajorpartofthepre-IPOputwillbewaivedordelayediftheIPOcannotbecompletedbyFYE23HenceDWCMsnear-termrepaymentpressureismanageableDALWANswillcontinuetobehighbetaplaysinviewoftheheadlineriskandhighercashpricesThatsaidatcurrentvaluationsevenafterthereboundof15-25ptsoverthepast4weekstheriskandreturnprofilesofDALWANsremainfavourableWehavebuyrecommendationsonDALWANsClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFChinaEverbrightBankSydneyBranchUSD-3yrSOFR110-BBB-Newsandmarketcolor413Sep2023Regardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere97creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB128bnAsforMonth-to-date557creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB513bnraisedrepresentinga14yoyincreaseZhengzhouthecapitalofHenanprovincedismantledtherestrictionsonhomepurchaseBABAMediareportedthatAlibabawillplacethedevelopmentofAIuserexperienceasitstopstrategicprioritiespostnewCEOappointmentCOGARDCountryGardenunitscheduledtopaycRMB50mncouponofitsRMB15bnonshorebondson19SepGLPCHIGLPChinaplanstocutthecouponofitsRMB700mnputtablenotesto1on18OctRGETDCRugaoEconomicandTradeDevelopmentproposedtoofferuptoRMB500mnthree-yearMTNstorepaydebtsROADKGRoadKingInfrastructureannouncedtopayRMB295mntoacquire51oftargetcompanyfromCIFIHoldingstounwindJVengagedinBeijingShunyiprojectSOFTBKMediareportedthatSoftBank-ownedARMattractsTSMCAppleNvidiaetcascornerstoneinvestorsinUSIPOVEDLNVedantaResourceschairmansaiditcouldtransferKonkolaCopperMinestoVedantaLtdatappropriatevaluationFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompanies513Sep2023inthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6