研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary15Sep2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报NewissuesBBLTB2833widenedc5bpsandKOSOPW26wasunchangedTMTbenchmarkswere1-2bpstighterBankT2swerecontinuouslybetterGlennKoCFA高志和buyingSINOCEsuspendsoffshoredebtsrepaymentandwilllaunchholistic85236576235restructuringSeebelowglennkocmbicomhkChinesepropertiesContractedsalesslightlyreboundedmominAug23SeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩ChinaPolicyRRRcutascontinuousefforttorestoreconfidenceSee85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkbelowforcommentsfromoureconomicresearchTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点JerryWang王世超85237618919YesterdayAsiaex-JPIGspacewaslargelyfirmpostCPIdespiteUST2yjerrywangcmbicomhkyieldswidened4bpsto501AfterclosePBOCcuttheRRRby25bpsOntheprimaryfrontthenewCHEVBK3yfloating-ratenotewaspricedatSOFR63andclosed3bpswiderfromROChineseSOETMTbenchmarkssuchasHAOHUA29sTENCNT29sBABA31swereunchangedto3bpstighterInfinancialsChinesebankT2swereunderbetterbuyingwithactiveflowsonthefront-endBCHINACCBICBCASpaperstightened1-3bpsChineseAT1ssuchasBCHINA36PerpCINDBK325Perpweremarked0125pthigherInAMCspaceHRINTHwastraded05-1pthigheracrossthecurvedespitetherewerealsosomeprofittakingflowathighGRWALL2730stightened4bpsCCAMCLs27sedged2bpstighterHKCorpspacestayedrange-boundHKCorpperpssuchasCKINF4PerpCKPH35Perpweretraded1-15ptshigherHKChinesepropertiesweremixedwithlightflowsGEMDAL24wastraded2ptshighertoclose7ptshigherWTDDALWAN24s26sgained125ptsROADKG25s26sweretraded05-1pthigherSHUIONYLLGSP24-26swereup05-075ptOntheotherhandFUTLANFTLNHD25s26sweredown075-1ptInindustrialsEHICARWESCHI26sweremarked05pthigherMacaugamingpaperssuchasSJMHOLSANLTD28-31sweretradeddown075ptIndianspacewasquietVEDLN24sedged03pthigherIndonesianSOEssuchasPERTIJsPLNIJsweremarked05pthigherElsewhereGLPCHI24s26sweretradedanother175-225ptshigherposttheDDcompletionnewsonitsassetsalesTheLGFVPerpspaceshadaquietsessionLGFVswerelargelystablewithactiveflowsonthe23-25sThehigher-yieldingpaperscontinuedtobesought-afterMoreused-to-bedouble-digit-yieldingnamesedgedinside9CQNANA24s26sweretraded01pthigherCCUDIHGSHIAV24sremainedbetterbidSOEperpsweremixedafterCPItradingatlow-6withtwowayflowsmainlyamongChineseRMsAMsCHSCOI4PerpCHCOMU365PerpCHPWCN345Perpweremarked01-02pthigherWhilstHUANENPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk115Sep2023308PerpHUADIA4PerpweresubduedElsewhereFRESHK25s26sandZHONAN25swerequoted05pthigherLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeGLPCHI29503292662422PCGIHD412082326855-10GLPCHI497402262490018FTLNHD48121524458-10GEMDAL49508122452218NANFUN5PERP663-10CKPH312PERP59715YXREIT265020226845-10DALWAN1102132644712NWDEVL412051930660-07MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP084Dow096andNasdaq081ralliedhigheronThursdayThelatestUSinitialjoblessclaimwas220klowerthantheexpectationof225kandincreasedfrom217kinlastweekTheUSretailsalesincreased06mominAughigherthantheexpectationof04momTheECBraisedthreemaininterestratesby25bpsTheUStreasuryyieldsralliedhigheryesterday251030yieldreachedat500442429439respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点SINOCEHolisticrestructuringtobelaunchedasexpectedSino-OceanannouncedthatpaymentsunderallofitsoffshoredebtswillbesuspendeduntiltheholisticrestructuringorextensionsolutionisimplementedThetotaloutstandingoffshorebondprincipaltotaledcUSD39bnTheseinourviewarelargelyexpectedRecalledthatinmid-AugSino-OceanhassecuredsupportfromitsbondholderstopostponetheinterestpaymentofthreeofitsoutstandingbondsSINOCE6073024SINOCE595020427andSINOCE475080529fortwomonthstoendofSeptoearlyOctWediscussedinourdailyinJulandAugthatweviewfurtherliabilitymanagementexerciseinnear-termislikelyforSino-OceanconcerningitsliquiditypressureandweaksalesperformanceFor8M23itcontractedsalesfellby34yoycomparedto8M22ranked16thamongthe35developersunderourradarintermsofsalesgrowthTherewasafurthersignoftightenedfundingchannelforSino-OceanEarlierthisweekmediareportedthatithasyettoreceivetherequiredunanimousconsentfrombanksinthreeoffshoresyndicatedfacilitiestofurtherdefertheinstallmentsdueon19SepwhichoriginallydueinJunforanotherninemonthsOntheotherhandChinaLifehadfullywrittenoffits2959stakeinSino-Oceanin1H23ThisalsosignaledthefurthersupportfromChinaLifetobeunlikelyWeshallprovideupdateswhentherestructuringtermsareavailableChinesepropertiesContractedsalesslightlyreboundedbymominAug23whilewerestillweakInAug23the34ChinesedevelopersunderourradarRedcodidnotdiscloseAug23resultreportedcontractedsalesofRMB2102bnintotalincreased56momfromRMB1991bninJul23butwerestill403lowerthanthatinAug22In8M23theaggregatecontractedsalesof34developersdown176yoytoRMB23060bncomparedto146yoydropin7M23215Sep2023Amidtheweakrealestatemarketthenumberofdevelopersunderourradarwhichachievedyoycontractedsalesgrowthin8M23decreasedto5from7in7M23andallofthemarestate-ownedTheoutperformersareYUEXIURMB1020bn62yoyCRHZCHRMB2077bn21yoyandCHIOLIRMB2110bn18yoyUnderperformersareRONXINRMB116bn-76yoyTPHLRMB112bn-66yoyandSUNACRMB615bn-54yoyNationwidethecommercialhousingsalesamountdropped90yoyin8M23and237yoyinAug23asperNBSIntheendofAugPBOCandNAFRannouncedsupportivepoliciesincludingtosetminimumdown-paymentratiosto2030andlowerinterestratesto5YLPR-20bps5YLPR20bpsfrom5YLPR-20bpsLPR60bpsforfirstsecondhomemortgagesrespectivelyBesidesseveraltier-2citiesincludingNanjingandZhengzhoucancelledthehomepurchaserestrictionsWeexpectsomeyoypick-upincontractedsalesin4Q23inviewofthelowbasefiguresandsupportivepropertypolicesinhighertiercitiesChart1ContractedsalesofdevelopersunderourradarNoteCompanynamewithrepresentsthedatawascollectedfromCRICSourceCompanyfillingsCRIC315Sep2023Chart2ChinamonthlycommercialhousingsalesamountandYoYchangeSourceWindChinaPolicyRRRcutascontinuousefforttorestoreconfidenceTheRRRcutindicatesChinesepolicymakerscontinuousefforttoboostmarketconfidenceandgrowthmomentumasthelatestpolicyeasingfailedtoigniteinvestorsentimentThepolicymovewillincreasebankingsystemliquidityandfacilitatecreditsupplyexpansionasacontinuouspolicylooseningsignalWhenmarketconfidenceslumpedtoafreezingpointwithinvestorsexpectingChinatomovetowardsJapanizationthepolicymakersneedtomakegreateffortstoreversethesentimentTheRRRcutshowstheirstrongercommitmenttorestoringconfidenceandgrowthasweexpectcontinuouseasingorsupportivepoliciesonthewayThePBOCmaycontinuetoexpandcreditsupplywithadditionalcutsondepositratesLPRsandmunicipalgovernmentswillfurtherloosenpropertypoliciesinnexttwoquartersTheRRRcutindicatescontinuousmonetarypolicyeasingtoboostmarketconfidenceThePBOCcuttheRRRby25bpsastheeffectiveweightedaverageRRRisexpectedtodeclinefrom76to74TheRRRcutwouldincreaseliquiditysupplyinthebankingsystembyoverRMB500bnThepolicymoveindicatesChinascontinuousefforttoboostmarketconfidenceandgrowthmomentumThepolicystancehasbecomemoreactiveandpro-growthsinceJulyastheextremelypessimisticexpectationsaboutChinaseconomyhavecreatedmuchpressureonthepolicymakersTherecentpolicyactionsshouldhavemarkedasignificantchangeofthepolicyattitudefromthetopleaderspavingthewayforstrongerpolicylooseningaheadwhichmaybethestrongeststimuluscyclesince2017WeexpectadditionaleasingorsupportivepoliciesinthefutureTorestoremarketconfidenceChinaneedsadditionaleasingorsupportivepoliciesThepolicymakersmay1furtherloosenpropertypolicieswithanaccelerationofurbanvillagerenovationandaffordablehousingconstructionandlooseningofhomepurchase415Sep2023restrictionsintier-oneandtier-twocities2maintainliquidityeasingwithfurtherexpansionofcreditsupplyandreductionoftheRRRdepositinterestandLPR3activelyresolvethelocalgovernmentcontingentdebtrisksbysupportinglocalgovernmentstousespecialbondfinancingandstate-ownedassetstoreplaceorrepaysomecontingentdebtsandencouragingbankstorollovermaturedlocalgovernmentcontingentdebts4acceleratetheissuanceofgovernmentbondsemploypartofthedebtquotafornextyearinadvancein4Qandincreasebroadfiscaldeficitratenextyeartofacilitatefiscalexpansion5boosttheretailsalesofautomobileselectronicproductsandhomefurnishingandstimulateserviceconsumptionsuchassportsleisureandculturaltourism6focusonindustriessuchasdigitaleconomyartificialintelligenceandadvancedmanufacturingandincreasetheintensityofindustrialpolicysupport7establishandimprovethenormalizedcommunicationmechanismwithentrepreneursandenhancetheconfidenceofprivatebusinessesThecurrentpolicyeasingcyclemaylastlongerthanthepreviousonesasthepolicyeffectivenessoneconomicgrowthdeclinesChinalaunchedtworoundsofstrongstimulusinthepasttwodecadeswithonein2008-2009andtheotherin2015-2016Afterthestimulustheeconomyexperiencedarecoverycyclefor15-2yearsandthencontinuedwiththestructuralslowdowntrendNowadaysthepolicyeffectivenessoneconomicgrowthfurtherdeclineswithmoreagingpopulationlesslaborsupplyweakermarket-orientedincentiveandgreatergeopoliticaluncertaintyThatmeansthecurrentpolicyeasingcyclemaylastlongerthanthepreviousonesifthepolicymakerscontinuetoseekgrowthataround5innexttwoyearsClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFKoreaSouthernPowerCoLtd3003yr5375T90Aa2-AA-OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFUrumqiGaoxinInvestmentandUSD-3yr76---DevelopmentGroupNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere98creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB78bnAsforMonth-to-date747creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB689bnraisedrepresentinga229yoyincreaseCHINSCMoodysdowngradedChinaSCEsratingstoCaa1Caa2andmaintainednegativeoutlookCHJMAOChinaJinmaoannouncedthatitintendstodisposeTheWestinBeijingChaoyangforminimumofRMB28bnCIFIHGMediareportedthatCIFIcirculatedrevisedoffshorerecastproposalwithhaircutup-tonine-yeartermoutdebt-to-equityswapoptionsFTHDGRFantasiaHoldingscompleteddomesticbondrestructuring515Sep2023GRNCHGreentownissuedRMB1bnthree-yearMTNswith431coupontofundprojectdevelopmentHPDLFSPaffirmedHopsonDevelopmentHoldingsBratingandplacedstableoutlookRDHGCLMoodysdowngradedRadiancesratingstoCaa1Caa2andmaintainednegativeoutlookSINOCESino-OceanGroupannouncedtosuspendalloffshoredebtpaymentsinholisticdebtrestructuringVEDLNMediareportedthatVedantaResourcesplanstouse70ofUSD750mnraisedfromnewloanforVEDLN13875012124tenderYNPOWEYunnanProvincialEnergyInvestmentissuedRMB1bntwo-year555MTNsFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnited615Sep2023StatessolelytomajorUSinstitut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